What are your predictions for Xbox 2021?

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You can go crazy, you can go neutral, you can go pessimist. Either way, I think it would be fun to do a predictions thread and revisit in a year to see just how right/wrong we are. Just don’t be so beholden to your expectations, eh? Tons of great stuff down the line.

January:

Quiet month. The Medium is released to good reviews (in line with Observer at least) and strong fan reception. Third-party games like Hitman keep us happy.

February:

Going bold here. Zenimax acquisition is finalized. Xbox announces some details on the acquisition, including their plans for exclusivity (to which my guess is still New IP full exclusive, Reboot/stand-alone sequel full exclusive, sequel to ongoing story timed exclusive 6 months-1 year, updates to FO76 and ESO multiplatform, no “hardball” approach with PSNow and Stadia like buying up contracts but no new games there. Back catalog remains on all platforms in perpetuity).

March:

An Inside Xbox with looks at Flight Sim on console, updates to ongoing GAAS, the announcement of Halo Infinite lighting, a teaser for the Halo TV show, and release dates for Psychonauts 2 and Grounded.

April:

Psychonauts 2 is released towards the end of the month to very positive reviews. Next-gen exclusive on Series X (PS4 version exists but no PS5). The Ascent also releases to positive reception, and MechAssault 5 to mixed-positive.

May:

XCloud begins its wide reach across various markets, Scorn comes out. Deathloop is released on PS5 and PC, possibly Game Pass PC if possible. Reviews well.

June:

E3 baby! Gameplay footage of Halo Infinite (November 16th official launch with early access on the 15th to meet 20th anniversary), As Dusk Falls (February 2022), Avowed (Holiday 2022 tentative), Hellblade 2 (June 2022 tentative) and Everwild (Summer 2022). No gameplay for Fable, State of Decay 3 or Perfect Dark but dev interviews and teases. Brand new reveals for Starfield (October 8th 2021, full exclusive), Wolfenstein 3 (August 13th 2021, 1 year timed exclusive) and Compulsion’s new IP (undated). Flight Sim releases on console. Halo Infinite starts flighting.

July:

Quakecon: Brand new looks at Starfield, Wolfenstein and Ghostwire. Surprise new reveal from Arkane Austin (New IP or Dishonored/Prey stand-alone sequel, full exclusive). Grounded enters full release.

August

Wolfenstein III is released to a strong critical reception. Not as beloved as New Order, much better than Youngblood, about on par with New Colossus but slightly easier. Features a new multiplayer mode that harkens back to enemy territory.

September: A quiet month again. Some nice Game Pass editions. Ghostwire releases on PS5 and PC.

October: Starfield baby! Starfield is launched to a strong critical reception and is Bethesda’s best looking/most polished game. Some credit MS but this was a decision made by Zenimax after FO76. Reviews better than Fallout 4, slightly worse than Skyrim, but restores BGS Maryland’s claim to the crown after CDPR fumbled.

November: This month is all about Halo, Halo, Halo. Halo Infinite launches to the best reviews for 343. Not up to Bungie’s standards but still damn admirable. Inside Xbox teases an ODST style spinoff. First expansion detailed. The TV show debuts on Showtime and expands the audience, albeit with some mixed responses among purists. To keep the spotlight on Halo, XO is MIA again. Halo, Wolfenstein and/or Starfield gets a GOTY nomination at the Game Awards.

December Xbox showcases a brief tease for InXIle’s new RPG at The Game Awards. It’s an open-world Steampunk adventure with strong combat and shooting mechanics. Equal emphasis on making first and third person great. In-engine teaser. Forza is dated for spring 2022, it’s new release time.

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Even thought it’s pushed to the fall, 2021 will be the year of Halo’s glorious return.

I’m excited to see some of the work from Microsoft’s first party stuff.

Don’t really have any bold predictions. Excited for first party gameplay.

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Can’t predict dates because I feel 2021 will see some delays too, but I think those are the 1st party lineup

  • Psychonauts 2
  • Halo Infinite
  • Forza Horizon 5
  • Flight Simulator
  • Starfield
  • Wolfestein 3
  • Grounded
  • As Dusk Falls
  • One unannounced AAA game from GP
  • One AAA unannounced game from GP

With the timed exclusives like Stalker 2, The Medium etc should be a very strong lineup already and a good preparation for the onslaught 2022 forward should be.

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Psychonauts 2 February-April

Halo Infinite November 15

Flight Simulator Late July

Starfield Full Exlcusives Mid October

Forza Horizon 5 Late August early September

As Dusk Falls June

Wolfestein 3 Full Exclusive Late September

One AAA unannounced game From XGP

For Bethesda everything will be Exclusive besides MMO

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I think 2021 will see at least two 3rd party AAA games launching on Gamepass day 1. I also think it’s the year we’ll finally get an announcement of a new Banjo Kazooie game.

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OK I’ll go crazy prediction time here (pessimist? that’s not fun!) and say that besides all the very very promising games that you guys have listed above me the surprise of 2021 for Xbox will be a Japanese game from the XGP team.

Also seeing all the Wolfenstein 3 mentions, I really really hope that this game will be in the style of the BJ games and not like the Youngblood one. ΜachineGames please…

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I’ll take a swing at some predictions (can’t resist hehe).

Xbox acquires 4 studios (this will be totally wrong but I’ll say Asobo, Bungie, Dontnod and Hello Games) this year in additions to Bethesda/Zenimax.

A partnership to bring UPlay to Gamepass is worked out.

Starfield and Wolfenstein 3 join the 2021 lineup along with an exclusive from Sega.

Clarification comes that all Bethesda/Arkane/idTech/Machine Games games are exclusive to the Xbox ecosystem. Zenimax Online is available everywhere.

We get trailer reveals for Age of Empires IV, Prey 2, Wolfenstein 3, Compulsions games and Forza Horizon 5.

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Game releasess:

  • Halo Infinite (November 15, 82 metascore)

  • The Medium

  • Bright Memory Infinite

  • Scorn

  • The Ascent

  • Microsoft Flight Simulator

  • Second Extinction

  • The Gunk

  • As Dusk Falls

  • Sable

  • Twelve Minutes

  • Crossfire X

  • Artful Escape

  • Tunic

  • Starfield (announcement in the summer, launch in October)

Services: xCloud launches on PC and iOS. Hardware used for Cloud Gaming is upgraded to Xbox Series X. Microsoft launches an Xbox Streaming Stick and an Xbox TV app (all of these things we know are happening next year, it’s official). Xbox Game Pass reaches ~25 million subscribers by the end of the year. EA Play gets added to PC Game Pass in the summer.

E3 2021: their digital event in the summer will be called “Xbox+Bethesda”, and will be presented by Phil Spencer, Matt Booty, Pete Hines and Todd Howard. All these will be announced/shown there: Wolfenstein 3 (early 2022), Arkane Austin’s new IP (early 2022), Starfield (fall 2021), Compulsion’s new game (third person adventure game), Inxile’s new game (AAA Steampunk RPG), Hellblade 2 (early 2023, although no date is given), Halo Infinite, Gears 6 (fall 2022), Forza Motorsport (early 2022), Everwild (fall 2022), Forza Horizon 5 (set in Japan, September or October of 2022), Avowed (early 2023, although no date is given). Fable, Perfect Dark and State of Decay 3 don’t show up (too early in development to show in-game footage).

Hardware and power: after Cyberpunk 2077, Destiny 2, Watch Dogs Legion, Black Ops Cold War, DMC V (3 out of 4 modes) and other games run better on the Series X than on the PS5 but some 2020 launch games like Valhalla or Immortals Fenyx Rising run better on PS5, the transition to GDK being much more advanced will cement the Series X as the most powerful console without hesitation and by the end of 2021 all games will run better on it than on PS5 (just like with the One X and PS4 Pro).

Acquisitions: by the end of the year, Microsoft will announce the acquisition of Asobo, that will be their only acquisition in 2021. Other independent studios will be acquired by other companies, consolidation will go even further, especially thanks to Tencent and Embracer. Sony will not acquire Bluepoint.

In general, it’s an important year for the brand in terms of expansion and services and it’ll be when the “Netflix of gaming” idea will come to a tangible realization, but it won’t be as big in terms of proper first party game releases until Starfield launches in October, which will boost the sales of Xbox consoles and services at the end of the year. 2022 will be generally stronger in terms of first party content with Wolfenstein 3, Everwild, Forza Motorsport, Forza Horizon 5, Gears 6 and Arkane Austin’s new IP.

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Crossing my fingers for Starfield in 2021!

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JANUARY

  • The Medium releases

FEBRUARY

  • ZeniMax deal gets legally finalized and announced
  • Psychonauts 2, Crossfire X and The Ascent release date trailer

MARCH

  • Crossfire X single player campaign and online multi-player releases
  • The Ascent releases

APRIL

  • Psychonauts 2 releases
  • MechWarrior 5 releases
  • Bright Memory Infinite release date trailer

MAY

  • Bright Memory Infinite releases

JUNE

  • Xbox Games Showcase / Digital Event
  1. Halo Infinite Gameplay Trailer / November 12th release date
  2. Hellblade 2 gameplay trailer, 2022
  3. Wolfenstein III reveal story trailer, gameplay trailer, July 2021, Xbox/PC exclusive
  4. Fable gameplay reveal trailer
  5. Everwild cinematic trailer again, years away
  6. Forza Horizon 5 reveal gameplay trailer, September 2021
  7. Indies Trailer…As Dusk Falls, Tunic, Scorn, The Gunk, 12 Minutes, etc.
  8. Flight Simulator gameplay trailer, August 2020
  9. Starfield reveal trailer, short gameplay trailer, 2022
  10. Phil Spencer announces that every future game under Bethesda will be Xbox/PC exclusive starting with Wolfenstein III with the exception of Deathloop and Ghostwire Tokyo as their timed exclusivity deals will be honored
  11. Phil Spencer then announces two studio acquisitions. They announce the acquisition of Asobo Studio and reveal their next gen only title - A Plague Tale 2 with a short gameplay trailer. No release window. Also announced is that Microsoft acquired the publishing rights to the game from Focus Home Interactive. Xbox/PC exclusive. Second and final studio announcement is Techland. They show a new gameplay trailer for Dying Light 2. It’s now a next gen only game. Xbox/PC exclusive. PlayStation versions are cancelled. January 2022 release date. Overall, low on quantity but very high on quality announcements.

JULY

  • Wolfenstein III releases

AUGUST

  • Flight Simulator Xbox Series X console release

SEPTEMBER

  • Forza Horizon 5 releases for Xbox One, Xbox Series X and PC

OCTOBER

  • X021 / Digital Event
  1. Full blowout of Halo Infinite as the last major push
  2. Starfield overview 20 minute gameplay trailer, March 2022
  3. Dying Light 2 overview gameplay trailer, January 2022
  4. Updates on content for the live service games and Indies
  5. Inside Xbox announcement for February 2022 that will focus for what is planned for this individual year

NOVEMBER

  • Halo Infinite releases on November 12th
  • One Year Anniversary for the Xbox Series X/S releases
  • Nothing for December
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Yea I think November 12th as well as the 15th is a Monday

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Yeah, imagine they release the game on Sunday night at midnight which is then Monday and they wonder why not many people are playing the game…lol…oh wait, it’s because they went to school/work. lmao.

Friday release is perfect as everyone would have the weekend to play the game. Game doesn’t need to release on the exact date to celebrate the 20th Anniversary so yep, I moved back my original November 5th release date prediction to November 12th.

I see Battlefield 6 being October 8th and two weeks later COD on the 22nd. Three weeks later, Halo Infinite.

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Yea

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Good post, lot of cool thoughts

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Great post, really enjoyed reading it! I would agree with a lot of what you said, and this is getting me ridiculously hyped for the future of Xbox. I feel like 2021 and beyond will be absolutely ridiculous.

One thing I will say, if we’re getting Halo Infinite, Starfield, Forza Horizon 5 and Zelda BotW2 next Fall… I… Don’t know what I’ll do… Is cloning illegal?

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Ikr future of Xbox looks hyped

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Another thing: Xbox will most probably have the marketing for Battlefield 6 next year, and they always have bundles with those games that sell very well (like with Battlefield 1 in 2016).

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Yep

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I expected a significant growth in first party after the Zenimax deal goes through which will make Gamepass becoming Netflix a reality and with that reality phil will realize that Matt Booty and himself will need more eyes to keep the studios on track to deliver amazing monthly hits so Phil will hire Shawn Layden as the same position as Matt Booty.

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Nice thread, I love reading it !

My predictions :

January:

The Medium is released with 84-5 metacritic and announce for FS2020 insider’s beta on Xbox X/S on february + release date and DX12 on PC version. SOT start seasonal pass and monthly event, it work well

February:

Zenimax acquisition finalized in a blog post (everything is exclusive except multiplayer game and Howard start teasing for Starfield + Fallout next).

March:

Xbox Game Showcase mid march focus on update for game already release or announced :

  • patch for Dishonored/Prey 60fps + every Bethesda game release date in gamepass (DOOM 2016, Fallout 4…)
  • Grounded, SOT updates
  • Halo Infinite private flighting date (june)
  • gamepass announcement with great indie like Tunic and 12 minutes with release date soon
  • Hellblade 2 release date for end 2021 on Xbox One/SX first showcase for UE5 in new gameplay trailer (delayed for early 2022)
  • Psychonauts 2 release june + gameplay
  • Crossfire X gameplay trailer september release
  • The Ascent gameplay + release end of march
  • Age of Empire 4 gameplay trailer + release date september 2021
  • Compulsion new adventure tps game trailer for the “one more thing”
  • everything on gamepass day one

May:

XCloud begins its wide reach across various markets and start on iOS, Deathloop is released on PS5 and PC.

June:

Xbox start putting Series X in Xcloud

July:

Xbox Game Showcase part 2 :

  • new Halo Infinite long gameplay of polish campaign gameplay with explanation and date for public flighting test soon (before end of august) and release date (mid november)
  • As Dusk Fall gameplay and date for approximately 27 august 2021
  • Everwild long gameplay like first SOT gameplay and release summer 2022
  • Forza Motorsport impressive gameplay + date for flighting test (start march 2022 and final release september 2022)
  • new small Obsidian’s project by Adler for early 2022 + Avowed trailer with explanations and a bit of gameplay that show impressive interaction with environment
  • The Gunk gameplay trailer
  • lot of third party with EA Star Wars game, Ubisoft’s games…
  • IDXbox trailer with lot of indie and best indie get their 50 seconds trailers/gameplay
  • Starfield announcement trailer like Fallout 4 + release november 2021 One/SX/PC
  • Techland acquisition with dev talk on how it help for Dying Light 2 + exclusive SX/PC and release 2022
  • surprise studio acquisition come along Techland without game announcement

August

As Dusk fall release with great review

September:

XCloud stick launch and Ghostwire releases on PS5 and PC + The Gunk great

October:

AoE 4 great and great review

November:

Halo and Starfield release with great reviews 90+ MC and are great success

December

Xbox showcases a brief tease for InXIle’s new RPG at The Game Awards. It’s an open-world FPS Steampunk adventure with strong combat and shooting mechanics. In-engine teaser. Other surprise like Fable gameplay maybe

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