I mean last year they had 5 or 6? First party games but unfortunately a few of those games had prior agreements so weren’t true “exclusives”. 2023 on we probably see anywhere from 4-6 exclusives a year and 2025 on its like 6-8
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If we trust the mythical Jeff Grubb list Xbox’s 2023 had like 7 exclusive games
They had more than that the last 2 years 
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I’m going to go out a limb and say that Xbox will have at least 8 1st party and publishing games in 2023.
From wiki:
List of Xbox Game Studios video games - Wikipedia
2021: Psychonauts 2, AoE 4 (pc only, I guess it’ll follow Fligh Sim path on console in 2022), FH5 and Halo Infinite, Flight Sim is a 2020 game ported on console, so 4-5 releases, all backloaded unfortunately.
It’s good, but still far from “industry leading” levels told by Phil at E3 2018. I think 8 is the minimum, 2 games each quarter, one BIG, another AA-ish.
Deathloop is an Xbox game that had prior contractual agreements or would have been an Xbox exclusive
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I won’t fall again into the Deathloop, I just say it does absolutely nothing for Xbox in 2021, that is absolutely incontrovertible.
Psychonauts 2, Deathloop, Forza, Halo in one year is damn good
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I’m not saying that what I’m saying is once every contractual agreement has been met and all of Xbox’s studios are working solely on Xbox games then we will reliably see 4-6 games per year at minimum.
Yeah, 2023 should be the time, 5 years after the start of the push is a fair amount of time, all 2018-19 acquisitions have ended their previous things and Bethesda will be done after Ghostwire. Then the countdown for ABK will start. XD
In 2021 Xbox was industry leading with its releases. They made more quality games than anybody else: Age of Empires 4, Deathloop, Forza Horizon 5, Halo Inifine, Psychonauts 2, Quake Remastered and lots of good DLC and expansions.
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Their just a racing car game was the highest rated new game, Halo Infinite was probably the most played new game last year too.
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Exactly, with 30+ studios soon to be under the umbrella of Xbox there’s gonna come a point where all of them are going to be releasing their games in perfect cadence of each other and there’s always a big new first party game right around the corner. Higher ups at Xbox have stated before how they wanted to be able to release a first party game every three months.
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You don’t spend 7.5b and nearly 70b to not release games hehe, they obviously knew that their goal wasn’t achievable with what they had so went to the market and bought things that will get them closer to that goal. They’re most likely not even done buying studios, they are increasing teams within the studios and hiring more devs on almost all current studios, all signs point to they want a shit ton of games out yearly.
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2022 is being carried hard by Bethesda with Redfall and Starfield so 2023 can be Xbox Game Studios’ big year to release titles that have been announced in the past. I believe Jeff Grubb’s list is true to an extent even though parts of it have since become outdated like Everwild (that game reportedly hit roadblocks in development). This isn’t even including the potential Bethesda games that could be releasing next year to round out the lineup. And then 2024 (potentially earlier) we could start seeing the Activision purchase finally come into effect which is really interesting because that deal wasn’t initially planned out over the course of a year like Bethesda but instead a opportunity a few months ago that Microsoft pounced on.
Once we get to Redfall and Starfield towards the end of this year, there’s gonna be no breaks on Xbox’s first party.
Not to mention Forza Horizon 5 DLC 1 & 2
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I just ran through Wikipedia’s list of published games from Activision and Vivendi/Universal games on Xbox and Xbox 360 to get a rough scope for the back catalogue that they might plausibly have the rights to as part of this.
I excluded licensed titles (except Tony Hawk), devices that have obvious rights-hell issues or peripheral issues (Guitar Hero; Skylanders etc). I went up to ~2014 or so for Xbox 360.
A huge percentage of Activision and Vivendi Universal’s back catalogue is licenced tie in games unfortunately. But it still leaves us with a lot. I mentioned a few unknown ones like the two Wolfensteins which they may already have licences to these versions of via Bethesda, but there might have been questionmarks because of Activision’s original publishing.
=== Xbox ===
- Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 2x
- Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 3
- Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 4
- Tony Hawk’s Underground
- Tony Hawk’s Underground 2
- Wreckless: The Yakuza Missions
- Return to Castle Wolfenstein: Tides of War
- Soldier of Fortune II: Double Helix
- True Crime: Streets of LA
- True Crime: New York City
- Pitfall: The Lost Expedition
- Tenchu: Return from Darkness
- Call of Duty: Finest Hour
- Call of Duty 2: The Big Red One
- Crash Bandicoot: The Wrath of Cortex
- Crash Twinsanity
- Mace Griffin: Bounty Hunter
- Leisure Suit Larry: Magna Cum Laude
- Men of Valor
- The Bard’s Tale
- Spyro: A Hero’s Tail
- Doom 3 (OG Xbox version is unique)
=== Xbox 360 ===
- Tony Hawk’s American Wasteland
- Tony Hawk’s Project 8
- Tony Hawk’s Proving Ground
- Tony Hawk: Ride
- Tony Hawk: Shred
- Quake 4
- Gun
- Call of Duty 2
- Call of Duty 3
- Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare
- Call of Duty: World at War
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2
- Call of Duty: Black Ops
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
- Call of Duty: Black Ops 2
- Soldier of Fortune: Payback
- Prototype
- Prototype 2
- Wolfenstein 2009???
- Singularity
- Blood Drive
=== XBLA ===
- Golf: Tee It Up!
- Geometry Wars: Retro Evolved 2
- Vigilante 8: Arcade
- Wolfenstein 3D
- Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater HD
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Singularity and Prototype 
Sony will never buy a publicly traded publisher…publicly traded means paying an additional 30-40% over the market cap…and it also lets others come and outbid…the second Sony tries to make a play the big bad CCP and Tencent will come in and tell Sony to kick rocks.
Sony is absolutely terrified of Tencent
Rather get this out of the way quickly, so good news in my opinion this has already been decided, FTC to review, not the DOJ: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-01-31/u-s-ftc-to-review-microsoft-deal-for-activision-bloomberg-news
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