Agreed. To me the FTC totally dropped the ball, there’s no way they’re getting that injunction unless corruption sips in somewhere. I don’t know if the CMA can survive Microsoft closing over them. Closing over them can send a strong message to the business world showing the UK doesn’t matter. You can be certain Apple, Amazon, Meta and Google will exploit that.
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So deal closes…Xbox and Microsoft will control 84% of the Call of Duty market. Increase that to 90%+ when it starts launching on gamepass.
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We don’t really know anything about Ratcliff or the way his company conducts business to say if blocking his deal was good or not. We also don’t know if the EC is reviewing his deal, or have even approved it, if they do business in the EU. It could really just be someone using the negative press and pressure that Microsoft is applying on the CMA to try and force something that could be potentially bad.
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That is totally biased way of telling things. MS does not control the mobile market more than they control the playstation market or the PC market.
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Tweak is really laying it on thick
Hi guys, 1st post but ive been following along since the start.
So I have a thought as far as the CMA goes. I feel like the path forward for Microsoft, assuming the FTC injunction gets denied, is pretty clear.
The CMA as far as penalties go has as far as I know just 2 options, either fine MS a percentage of their global profits or tell them they have to leave the UK.
There is no way in hell that the CMA would tell Microsoft to leave. It would be instant devastation for the country. It would cost billions in infrastructure damage and I imagine all kinds of lawsuits from UK citizens against the CMA for causing it.
And if MS doesnt want to pay the fine to me its like what are the CMA gonna do? Theyve got nothing.
Even with the fines I feel like Microsoft can litigate those and have them apply to the applicable part of the business, in this case being cloud, rather than their entire global profits. And if thats the case, and its quite possible theyre not making ANY money on the cloud right now, then there would be nothing to fine.
Therefor I think once the injuction attempt fails Microsoft is just going to close the deal because theres no real penalty the CMA can levy.
Does that sound reasonable at all or am I missing something?
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The CMA guidance seems to suggests that it relates to the company’s worldwide turnover in their past financial year (not one specific business sector).
If MS simply refused to pay I’m not sure what the CMA could do, like you say they can’t simply make Microsoft leave the UK without destroying nearly every business (most use Windows or Azure!). Even the CMA themselves use Teams for their video conferencing and Windows/Office365 for their general office work.
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The fine by the CMA can also be appealed and has in the past. The CMA has to be reasonable with their fines. Even if they can fine up to a certain percentage, that doesn’t mean that percentage is reasonable.
The largest fine the CMA has ever given was for about 150 million and they have never exercised their previous power of fining 5% of global turnover.
That power has been increased to 10%, but like I said they need justification and they dont have a history of having ever maximized their previous 5% global turnover fine.
It would be unreasonable to even fine Microsoft 3 billion to match the fee they have to pay if it falls through because it isnt even estimated that the market in the UK for cloud gaming will surpass 1 billion in revenue for at least 7 years and thats recenue, not profit or income.
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We could have an answer within the next 48 hours, crazy to think this ride could be over soon.
Sooooo one last hit 
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Then the CMA in July and potential appeal…
Then the FTC trial in August and potential appeal.
Also potentially Australia and NZ…
Far from over unfortunately…
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In my opinion, it would be more difficult for those entities to separate them than to prevent them from merging entirely.
If the merger go through I really can’t see these smaller entities even trying to divest Activision from Microsoft.
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If we take MS words, this decision is end all be all and the rest will be taken care of backstage. A must win battle.
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I wouldn’t really consider the US Government or UK Government small entities?
I’m just saying we are still a long way from the finish line, even if this is one of the biggest hurdles.
My comment was kind of unclear, but I was talking about New Zealand and Australia .
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The FTC August bit is entirely worthless now. It is the FTC ALJ process, which the FTC has changed their operating mandate to make the ALJ non-binding to the FTC. If it is meaningless to the FTC, why should any company even bother with it?
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Tomorrow could be the day. So your immediate reaction to:
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if Microsoft wins?
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if Microsoft loses?
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if Microsoft wins? nice… if Microsoft loses? well…
If MS wins: Stay off social media
If MS loses: Stay off social media
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If Microsoft wins: Nice, now we can move on to more fun things.
If Microsoft loses: Aight, can we move on to more fun things now?
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