I think there are finacial considerations on why MS would want it closed before july 18th. However, I don’t think its as hard and fast as you are making it out to be. As even if they win at the tribunal. That portion of it is not being done before july 18th. So an extension as they stated at the tribunal itself. Wouldn’t be an issue for MS or ABK.
the main thing is with the known date of july 18th. It behooves MS and ABK to use that as a weapon to move along both sides. But based on what both sides have said in court and publicly. They seem to be willing to do the work long term.
If ABK walked away their stock would take more then a 3 billion dollar hit, that stock will collapse and they know it.
Their is ZERO indication ABK wants to walk away given how much resources they have put into try to get it pushed through and the damage to their stock and company as a whole if it falls through, anyone suggesting this is trying to “will” this deal to fail through forum posts which will not work obviously.
There is no info on that, it is simply forum warriors looking for anything to cling to to work out in their own head how the outcome they want will come to pass…
This deal will fail or pass based on nothing anyone on the internet talks about,
Saying it more politely than I could manage. If this deal doesn’t go through then basically what’s being said is that Acti is too big to be acquired by a company who could afford them. I think their share price will crater. Why would anyone invest in a company who has got as high as they ever can.
I don’t know his tweet seems not as helpful as I expected. But it could just be the way he presents the information. Based on just that tweet my opinion is staying the same.
1 - Decide if the market definition makes sense
As Market definition wise. Its a win either way. As if you just limit it to “high performance consoles” Sony has such a lead its a hard argument to make that losing the likes of call of duty would so drastically change the market they would become anti- competitive or not able to make games or somehow be hurt in some way of merit.
If you look at it as High performance console market it is a joke, then you have have to factor in mobile and Nintendo. Nintendo has existed and thrived without call of duty. Call of duty has mobile versions that would continue to be made. The market share of adding ABK would move the needle so little you are just wasting the courts time.
2 - Determine whether there’s a “likelihood of success on the merits”
Would the deal be anti-competitive? Not based on the market definition argument above. ABK games while popular aren’t anti-competitive level. Microsoft owning ABK is at most inconvenient for Sony. But its not the job of the US government to ensure Sony can maintain its current business plan.
3 - Balance the equities
Most o the points the FTC had made just aren’t factual or of merit when you really look at them with a bit of knowledge.
Also while this guy seems to have knowledge of what PI needs to do. He seems not to understand what is being presented in the case. As his tweet reads like a law professor just stating what is needed without actually looking at what is being presented.
As he quantifes all of this with the FTC just needs to raise question while leaving out the fact that the information has to be truthful and quantifiable. As anyone can raise a lot of questions if you don’t have to be truthful or use misinformation.
I hope Microsoft brings up the union stuff again, although it won’t have an impact as far as evidence to not block the deal but more on a level of what good the deal is for the workers, this could be a huge impact for workers in the industry wide.
Microsoft has so many arguments in this fight it’s not even funny.
Worker rights would get a big increase in theory
A ton of cloud gaming companies gain a bunch of games for the next 10 years including new companies
Call of Duty being able to hit 150m more devices that never had access to it before
Cheaper access to Call of Duty for more than 30m customers
Closer competition in the console sector which will breathe more innovation and investment in the industry
I can’t think of a single downside really, the cloud deals cover and make sure xCloud doesn’t get this huge unfair advantage for 10 whole years, Microsoft isn’t dumb enough to remove COD from their competitors so there’s no issue there and lastly I can’t see Microsoft just jacking up prices for everything to help recoup the costs for the deal, while I do think prices will go up I think it would happen regardless if the deal was there or not.
He seems to imply that Microsoft is very likely going to come out on top, they’ve prepped for this, got 5 days of evidence hearings, the best lawyer and all the facts and numbers on their side hence “multiple lines of defense”
I believe the purpose of the thread was meant as a general ‘this is what needs to happen for the FTC to win their PI’, not thoughts on the potential outcomes.
I understood that. I just felt like if he is bringing up what needs to happen in general for the FTC to win. You should also mention if their argument has merit as that would also need to be considered.
As if you are making a general statement while one can assume merit has to be proven. When presenting information to the masses many will think that an argument has merit based on who is bringing it up.
As in, oh the FTC is doing this so the information has to be valid. He is assuming his audience understands that merit is not guaranteed and thats a big assumption to make on twitter of all places.
I agree to an extent, but he also addresses this somewhat with his tweet later in the thread:
This doesn’t exactly scream ‘FTC got this in the bag’. However, I get your point, it’s Twitter. Reading comprehension isn’t a skill that is in abundance on that platform.
Could be but not every year will they have good showcases(OW was at this showcase). Plus ABK is very good at mobile which from MS history they haven’t been good at.
I think they are needed but not for the reasons we as a community originally thought. Now its more about even if they get ABK they realistically need more studios if as Matt Booty said its 5 or more years in some cases for a AAA game and if they want quarterly content MS will need more studios to keep up a cadence. As Matt Booty or Phil I forget who said at the giant bomb thing, that the new content was new games not updates to services. It would be new games.
So when you look at ABK Blizzard isn’t the most speedy producer of content its a very much its ready when its ready. Something like ABK adds a lot of value but really is just a piece of the puzzle to help further extend the appeal of there vision.
I do have to wonder though can’t the FTC still argue in favor of the CAT appeal playing out, which takes the date outside the closing date. Perhaps like someone suggested they have waived the merger agreement completion in the UK.
They probably cleared this to try to disperse the notion of UK being closed for business. Also Amazon and Apple are pretty cutthroat. They would have given the CMA hell if they blocked or tried.
