Im fairly certain that Microsoft has incentive to either up the fee for walking away to extend or to up the offer amount by at 3 billion when push comes to shove.
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I think it might be at the point where the cost outweighs the certainty. For both parties.
Nothing suggests this.
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LOL, yeah there is zero evidence that is true when both sides have continued to dig in and fight for this, and Microsoft has oodles of cash when you are already talking about a $69 billion acquisition where a $3 billion fee is on the table if it doesnât close anyway. I do think it is reasonable that any extension would be firm at this point though, as realistically neither side is going to have this drag into 2024 and such.
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Hilarious that both the CMA and FTC are saying the deal canât be done because look the other is blocking it! cmon do they not understand how that looks. As much as a dickhead Kotick is, it is clear he probably wasnât wrong about FTC and CMA working together closely to kill the deal and are relying on each other, which is iffy af.
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Nobody should accept that the deal flops because of procedural loops. It would also make future FTC cases uncontestable (just push the date into the future, do not care about arguments).
I also think the US judge will not like that the FTC has severly limited the power of their own administrative judge making them (the FTC) almost invincible and untouchable in their own process. What FTC has claimed this year, is that that they want to be above laws and not accountable to judges because laws are bad.
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YUP, I think their fucking around is hurting them. If us layman can see whatâs going on and we know about 5% of whats going on then the judge could see it like no tomorrow.
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Theres an additional $66B if ABK just does nothing but support the deal. Of course they arent walking away over a few weeks.
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ABK may do fine on their own going forward if the deal doesnât close, but if this doesnât close then they may never get another shot at this type of deal with anyone too.
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Its insane how ill preparednand incompetent the FTC are, if you think the CMA lawyer got torn apart badly l, I cant imagine what MS lawyers are going to do to the FTC lawyer
They never will, this deal falling through would turn Activision Blizzard into damaged goods
This is why I never understood the people that believe ABK would just take the $3B and walk away when they want this more than MS does. They have nothing to lose by extending 3-6 months and will never get this payout ever again. Theyâd lose more than $3B on stock evaluation just by the deal falling through
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All the interesting news drops lately are from the US, which means most of it happens as I sleep. Didnât expect to wake up to all this FTC stuff.
The possibility of the FTC being resolved early July and potential the whole deal itself is great.
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I feel like there may be a misconception that this is all MS chasing ABK and if the deadline hits ABK is going to walk away or will ask for a ton more money if they renegotiate. It could very well be ABK is the one who really wants this deal to close more than MS. I donât think we have any indicators either way.
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They definitely want/need the deal way more than MS. MS have implied that this deal basically fell into theirblap and is a golden opportunity, Meanwhile this is basically ABK one and only chance to cash out for this much. Which is why i always chuckle when I see people say that ABK would take the $3B. Yes because $3B is worth not having to wait a few extra months and blow a $70B payday thats a once in a lifetime deal
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I do believe ABKâs main part was getting the shareholders to agree from there it was up to Microsoft to take it to the finish line. ABK certainly does have a lot to gain so Iâm sure they will keep up.
Somehow, I donât think ABK will be fine on their own. COD 2021 vanguard didnât exactly do well, and itâs not like a lot of the problems within the company has been addressed. in fact, I think this ABK deal has been a boon for Activision. It ignited the fire in Xbox fans which has driven support for ABK titles. ABK hasnât changed for the better so if Microsoft walks ABK will just fall back where it was if not worse. Alot of us want the deal for the good it could bring to the developers and the potential for the future.
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Financially, ABK will be fine. Work environment, noooo.
Fine? Maybe but that might not be enough for shareholders and Bobby
Even with Diablo 4 and MW2 their price is still lower than MS offer and those were their biggest games for the foreseeable and we already know they are struggling with their once a year CoD format, what happens when they have another Vanguard because of being rushed as always or they actually do have to skip a year?
If they donât sell now not only will their stock price struggle but they may never get the opportunity to be bought again, either because very few companies are even in a position to buy them or if they are, likely wonât be allowed because of regulator issues
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Also, Overwatch 2 is underperforming and even though Diablo 4 is a smash hit, its a game that maybe comes out every 9-10 years so it isnât like theyâre releasing a new one each year like COD
Candy Crush, World of Warcraft, Hearthstone, COD are the games that are carrying ABK right now. Unless theyâre able to release more smash hit games like Diablo 4 on a regular basis, the share price isnât going to climb higher much higher let alone anywhere near what MS is offering
Good point. Letâs just say itâs better off for them to be acquired.