Was speaking to someone on another forum and he said that the motion to appeal wouldn’t come from Judge Corley, but the FTC have 5 days to file a motion to appeal and they have to get it from an appellate judge
But no appellate judge is going to grant the FTC a motion to appeal after a failed injunction let alone in 5 days
If the FTC lose the PI its really over for them as far as this deal goes, they’re out of the picture
Turns out CMA block was the end of Infinity War. Now, we’re in the middle of Endgame.
so how likely for FTC to be able to get a PI, read someone seems to be a lawyer in the other era says the bar is actually quite low so a PI is quite possible?
It might be low but then you look at the FTC track record which says the opposite. Not just in merger cases, they lost to Axon in that recent SCOTUS case where all 9 justices voted in favor of Axon
You never know for sure but things are already going well for Microsoft getting 5 days vs the original 2 of hearings that the FTC clearly didn’t want
Given that MS were the ones that forced the FTC into this position and how confident Brad, Bobby and Lulu are I couldnt imagine they would pushed for this if there was any reasonable chance that the FTC would succeed
Companies like Microsoft dont get to this position of power without planning for contingencies and theyve hired the best lawyers money can buy, cant imagine the FTC incompetence succeding here
But like I said you never know for sure
There are six things that a judge reviews and has to weigh in the decision of whether to issue a preliminary injunction:
The bar is low for the FTC to get a preliminary injunction in most cases. Thats looking at normal processes though for the FTC going out and getting preliminary injunctions. Preliminary injunctions are usually obtained at the same time that the FTC chooses to pursue a case in either federal or their administrative court.
Historically, the FTC pursues cases that have anti-competitive issues and clear consumer harms. If the FTC can show those it is relatively easy to get a preliminary injunction. This means there are usually clear anticompetitive concerns with evidence or supporting statistics that show these damages. In this case, the FTC is speculating on all three of their claims of anti-competitive harms.
Causation is more of a question mark for me, thats referring to whether its specifically the merger that would lead to the anti-competitive harms that are alleged.
As this is late in the process and would impact whether the deal proceeds, balance of equities be is a concern. This is a review of what commercial and consumer damages there are if the deal does not go through. We know that there is a massive 3 billion dollars in damages to Microsoft as part of that. There are also damages to suppliers that signed agreements to receive ABK games. There are consumer harms in less choice and the games not going to a service they are already paying for. There is also damage to Activision shareholders as the deal would likely fall through.
Its also clear that the FTC failed to explore remedies to alleviate or eliminate the potential harms. Microsoft not only tried to work these out with them, they went out and signed agreements in an attempt to remedy concerns when the FTC wouldnt negotiate remedies. This is an area where the FTC will get hammered. The main competitor they are suggesting is harmed is Sony who also refused deals that ensured parity and pretty much everything that the FTC is alleging as a harm. To that respect the judge would likely simply ask the FTC why they dont mandate a concession for said parity for immediate competitors such as Sony.
Id get that starfield controller but i would probably break like all my other controllers do, Every ps5 controller broke. just got a new one. I have 2 working series controllers out of 6 purchased since launch.
This is something a lot of people are overlooking. The fact that the FTC have refused to speak with Microsoft to work out a solution while also conplaining that no remedies would be sufficient is not going to go over well for the judge
Im already starting to feel bad for whoever the FTC lawyer arguing for them in this case
It’s actually good reference
There are clowns. I think they really make a disservice to the institution they are supposed to serve.
I did some research regarding althe FTC appealing
In order to file for an emergency motion for relief to appeal, the FTC need a justifable reason and since they wont have one coming off a failure to get a preliminary injunction, MS likely wont have to worry about that
Also the FTC would have to get an appellate judge to grant the appeal, realistically no appellate judge is going to grant an appeal to the FTC straight off a loss and failure to get a PI
Regardless MS and ABK lawyers would have already considered the FTC appealing a loss and they dont see it as an issue
So it really is looking like the FTC is done if they fail to get the PI, theres nothing else they can realistically do
The CMA and FTC so clearly colluding and using each other to create a never ending loop why this deal can’t close and nothing is urgent because each side is holding the other side up anyway.
I think they are just making things worse for themselves and CAT and US Judges seem to be seeing right through it.
Yeah. They’ve given the game up by claiming the need for a PI is urgent since MS have indicated they might close over the CMA. Then when MS asked for a longer hearing and quick turnaround the FTC claim it can’t be urgent since MS can’t close anyway due to the CMA…
They are both working together to try and delay long enough to stop it. Both clearly think that 18th July is a hard deadline in reality and I suspect they might be correct.
So far MS/ABK legal teams are scoring a lot of procedural wins:
There was speculation that this could have dragged into 2024 or even early 2025 but it will probably over by September (assuming FTC loses the PI request and MS gets to extend the deal instead of just closing like the FTC is believing).
One thing is certain is something must have triggered FTC to act now instead much later.
It makes sense. So far, the FTC was perfectly happy having things being as slow as possible and stalling. Thus, it was really strange for them to suddenly want to move things along.
I don’t know but I think the FTC is only trying to get a PI because it will aid the CMA in the CAT . I do believe it was mentioned in the pre-hearings that the CMA is the only regulator that blocked the merger, so then the CMA mentioned that the FTC also blocked the merger, but the judge pointed out that they haven’t formally done so because they didn’t file a PI.
ABK might be against an extension but then again it could be part of the strategy. If I was Microsoft and ABK I wouldn’t be talking in public about an extension, that’s only going to let up pressure on the US federal court and the CTA to slow things down. A faster process is likely to play into their hands as they have more money, lawyers and resources to throw at both hearings then the CMA or FTC. A shorter time period is going to be tough of underfunded agencies with less lawyers