Outside of whats on ps4 or has contracts with sony every zenimax game will be exclusive. It doesn’t make sense to release on playstation all games will be next gen and the playstation 5 install base isn’t the same as ps4. If they wanted zenimax games on gamepass they could of paid them way less then 7.5 billion. Microsoft is trying to build so much exclusive content to gamepass that you would be crazy not to subscribe to it
Parris said it best: You do not spend $7.5 billion to publish games on other platforms, or for timed exclusivity or exclusive perks. No you spend that kind of money because you want the content exclusive to your platform. He gets it, so I do not understand why it is difficult for other people within the gaming industry to understand.
The article I posted above says it too and states that you only spend that kind of money to increase the market share of your platforms. Again, it’s Microsoft playing the long game: they will gain much more with new consumers coming to their platforms and services than selling a million copies or so of the most popular of these games on other platforms.
As the author noted, he initially thought there was no way the games will be exclusive, but he has come to the realisation that this is indeed what is going to happen and I feel others are as well.
This is not a very convoluted strategy Microsoft is playing, having exclusive content for your service or system has been around since the dawn of consoles. In the grand scheme of things $7.5 billion to Microsoft is not going to have a noticeable effect on them, so they don’t need to make the money back as soon as possible.
Ultimately, selling 10 million copies of Starfield on the PS5, for example, is worth less to Microsoft than getting say 5 million more people subscribed to Game Pass.
Ok, gonna make a bold prediction: Starfield will be exclusive and will be marketed as such before the ink dries. While I genuinely think the Zenimax deal will pass without a hitch, I suspect if Starfield is set for Q1/Q2 2021 (not likely) or after, MS has already signed a time exclusive deal on top of the acquisition so they can get it put before the deal closes if its shaping up that way or keep it exclusive if the talks take longer.
As to the major question this thread asks, my stance is all games except 76 and ESO are exclusive. Some FPS games may come to Switch on a later date. Some smaller titles may go to PS5 if not a sales or Game Pass engagement hit.
Yes all of the major IP will be exclusive. The answer is because of the money to be made that way. If the game brings even 1/3rd the amount of PS users that may buy it to the Xbox/PC/Gamepass ecosystem to play it, they make up their money on gamepass in less than 2 years. That is without adding in the fact they might buy other games or DLC or hardware etc. They may also became brand evangelists of the game or ecosystem which is also valuable for bringing others to the ecosystem and generating positivity and hype around the ecosystem.
People seriously think Xbox will miss out on a lot of money but if Starfield is out in '21/'22 it’ll be next gen only and going off what’s the current hype around next gen I would be shocked if MS doesn’t claw back a least a little bit of users. We’re hitting reset so the whole “but they’re missing over 120m consoles if they skip Sony” is just dumb.
The only games MS would be “dumb” to not put on PS5 is support for Fallout Shelter, ESO and Fallout 76 because they’re GaaS and I don’t really think those games are console sellers anyway.
Even if it sold 17 million (roughly 1 billion in sales, of which 30% goes to Sony if digital) copies to PS, they are one time sales. Meanwhile, say exclusivity brought 6 million to the Xbox ecosystem and gamepass. In 2 years you’d be at 1.44 billion plus any addition game or hardware sales you get from them being in your ecosystem.
As I mentioned that 30% that goes to Sony for store listing, imagine if even half of the 17 million in sales were digital, Sony would profit 150 million from that, so why would someone do that, doesn’t make business sense.
The last segment of What’s Good Games this week was Danny Pena vs. Andrea Rene debating this topic. Andrea was saying some very bizarre things, like that not only will Bethesda stay on Playstation, but Hellblade II will also. It was painful.
Yeh I wouldn’t go as far as calling them idiots, but I do find myself scratching my head at their opinions a lot of the time. Andrea Rene seems totally convinced that MS will release Hell Blade 2 and Bethesda IP’s on PS5 and her argument is that a) MS needs to make it’s money back and cannot possibly ignore the 100million PS4 base (even though these games will likely not launch on previous gen) and b) Phil Spencer said exclusives are bad. Arguments against these two points are so obvious, you have to wonder where this one sided view comes from and she’s not the only one who shares this view in the mainstream media.