Bloomberg Japan: PS5 Production cut by 4 million Units. Cites yield issues *update* Sony responds

Depends where on the “net” you are talking about. I just avoid threads,tweets and posts that I suspect will be biased. Also dont say that playstation has biased media on its side because they don’t, its just a few hundred fanboys, dont let them have this narrative, otherwise you are helping them by making there narrative legit.


Regarding the topic the first thing I thought about was hardware reliability, it does not surprise me though running at such high clocks is not smart.

The Bloomberg guy says $450 + 399 are the lowest they could be, which I think is to low overall but it would make sense because they get to 399 and its not a drastic difference for the disc version.

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That fits what TSMC insider’s leak iirc.

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Consider yourself warned.

OK, Time to break down how SoC are made.

First off, While I have experience in this field, I am NOT a expert and my thoughts should be taken as a guide. If you want a first hand account on how these chips are designed, produced and tested to suit game consoles, I highly recommend The Race for a New Game Machine: Creating the Chips Inside the XBox 360 and the Playstation 3 While it is a partial fictional retelling of the story of two people who were involved with the design of both the CELL and Xenon processors behind the PS3 and 360 respectively, the tech knowlege is top notch and explains in more detail than I can go into.

The design for a System on Chip (SoC) generally starts with a company reaching out to a chip designer. They will ask for information about what CPU and GPU options they have available now along with their plans for the next 2-4 years. This covers technology such as CPU speeds, GPU clocks and other designs like variable rate shading, ray tracing, ect.

The console company then evaluates what the roadmap is for their plans. You need to set your goals for the system overall. Then once you have the plan for how much CPU speed, GPU cIock, Memory type and bandwidth, custom hardware, ect.You go to the chip designer and together, work out which technologies you want in your chip and it then gets sent off to the designers.

The chip designers do the layout of all the components to fit inside the chip package and debug errors that come up. You would also have your own designers there helping guide any customizations you want included in the chip. This is the collaboration that you tend to hear about when AMD says that they are working with Sony or Microsoft. This is a time consuming process but once they reach a milestone, you then get what is called the “First spin”

A spin is spinning up a single wafer of chips for prototyping. When they get these chips back, they go into hardware labs where they get them up and running in test environments and push them to see if there are any errors. After this, another round of designing where you target any errors that have come up and additional work to smooth out any bottle necks that may have appeared. They also plan the chip to have redundancies so if a GPU processor has a few errors, they can disable them and still use it.

This process takes years. Phil Spencer talked about that the first part to any console design is the silicon. This is why. Generally, you do as few spins as possible to work out issues as they are expensive as a one off. Once the chip design is finalized, you go into prototype production and would produce chips for your prototype/test hardware. These are the units that the console software engineers will use to design and build the OS and tools for game production. While the test units are being built into development kits for your teams to work on, you finalize the design of the box, cooling, acoustics, ports, plastic shells, packaging and the all important manufacturing line to assemble the millions of consoles.

Once the SOC goes into production, The console manufacturer puts in a order to the chip designer to make X amount of chips for target date and continuing orders of X amount to be delivered on a planned date per month. The chip designer then places the order with the foundry (TSMC for arguements sake) and gives them the chip design that was approved. The foundry then spins up production.

So now, Let’s start with yields. All chips are made on large silicon wafers. So the foundry builds up the chips and then sends them to the chip designer. It goes into testing where they check the amount and location of failures. If the chip has up to 4 Compute units with imperfections, then it is " Binned" as viable and is sent off to be used in a console. From here, They test the chips to make sure it can reach the required frequencies. Those that pass are then put through the process to disable the CU’s that are non functional or are selected to be disabled.

When you clock higher with processors, some may have imperfections that effect the clock rate that can be achieved.

So here is the thing with pricing for the Soc (system on chip) For arguements sake, let’s say that they can fit 1000 SoC on a silicon wafer. So that is potentially 1000 soc’s. It costs $100,000 to produce that silicon wafer. Means that with no failures, production cost is $ 100 per Soc. However, They are made and in the first binning, You only get 600 viable Soc. The other 400 are no good either due to manufacturing error or they cannot hit the clocks required for the product.

Now, it still cost $ 100,000 to make them all. So take the $100,000 and divide by 600. Now, to just cover the cost of making the Soc, each one costs $ 166.66. That is how much the console manufacturer would pay for each chip.

Now, how this works is that the agreements between the console manufacturer and the chip designer would be to share the costs of R&D on the chip. Once the console manufacturer places orders for parts, they bear most of the cost of bad yields. The chip designers would have to pass on the cost as they do not have final approval of the chip, the console team have to place the order and lawyers would be involved to make sure it is locked up tight. Generally, yields can have acceptable loss rates of 10% but the higher it goes, the more cost ends up per usable chip.

Now, how it falls into the news today is that if the SoC has a yield of 50% but slowly improving, Then the SoC cost for this initial launch period will be higher. Sony have a few choices it can make.

  1. Eat the cost and still launch at the target price. Make it up later. Hope that yields improve.
  2. Evaluate and raise your target price to cover the costs.

This information coming out today would have been known for months and plans would have adjusted to suit. I bet there is a warehouse somewhere full of motherboards, memory modules, UHD Blu Ray drives and the casing for the Playstation 5.

4 cigarettes and a can of diet coke went into this breakdown.

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Fantastic post, thank you!

I’d just like to add to this part:

AFAIK the price atm is around 120k per wafer. And you can’t have 100% yield, as the wafer is round, and the SOC a rectangle, so you lose a couple on the rim of the wafer anyway.

The PS5 hardware situation is not looking good.

  1. Rediculously high clocks
  2. Which requires an elaborate cooling system
  3. An gigantic box
  4. 1000s of hrs engineering the cooling system
  5. High costs
  6. SoC yield issue (only 50%)

Well, I don’t think they just ‘hope’. They need a clear understanding why yields are so low, and what they can do about it. The outlook on how yields can/will improve has to factor in their pricing.

I think TSMC 7nm is a very mature node, so I can’t really see pure quality problems at manufacturing. Worst case they need to go back and do a new spin.

If rumors are true. Most of the time it’s not as bad as people make it seem. We’ll know in January for sure.

What rumours? Bloomberg is a reliable source. and we know the console is huge and the clocks are high. Maybe “disaster” was the wrong word, but the PS5 hardware situation is not good.

I doubt that you would see a delay in games. All they would need to do is drop the resolution and titles would be good to go.

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To add to that, this is straight from the article:

Amazing post, thank you.

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The tough part for understanding yield loss is that it can be either errors in production or that the chips are not able to consistently hit the clock targets required. Errors in production can come up at random and be as simple as a particle of dust got in. Clock targets would require a lot more work and a spin up for a new design could eat a good few months but while that solution is being worked on, the only hope they have is to keep producing parts and honestly wait and see.

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no problem at all. I hope it helped and if you have any follow up questions, let me know and I will do what I can to help.

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The $399/449 does not make sense when we consider this, also the added processors i/o processors, the ssd, the battery and advanced rumble, large console and cooling system will all add to costs. The only way these prices are possible os of Sony take substantial losses.

Does this mean that some PS5s could overheat or be real noisy? Sorry I have little knowledge of these things.

It’ll be a great console and will handily provide thousands of hours of use to gamers worldwide. In my opinion, while I believe the original PS5 Design wasn’t what we’re seeing today, it’ll get by just fine.

Would love to read a behind the scenes some day though.

Also, and this isn’t specifically calling you out, but if there was a post/thread here called ‘Xbox Series X launch isn’t looking good’, I’d be getting flags for concern trolling from users here.

Bear that in mind when you’re talking about this kinda thing from the ‘other side’ folks. :green_heart:

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In all honesty, we don’t know. The cooling solution is a unknown and if the chips that they can use are being put in consoles, then I would expect that they have solid thermal benchmarks that show it will not turn into a molten pile of plastic.

For noise and heat, we will have to wait for a leak or the tear down to be able to make a call on it.

To me its 50/50 at this point, sony this gen have been very cost sensitive, there hardware does not have the premium feel of xbox hardware ( the case creaks if you press it, the fans are really loud), there consoles really do feel mass manufactured and that they have used the cheapest parts.

And with the amount of PS5s and the price there rumoured to be at, it seems the PS5 may also not have a premium quality to it. However sound and heat have seemed to of been a design priority so maybe they have a solution which can be mass manufactured, however I get worried When mass produced electronics have complected designs. This is why the xbox s|x designs are so great, because they are simple.

The part about pricing is mere speculation on part of one analyst. With the news in the article itself it’s rather contradicting, I honestly don’t see how Sony could eat such huge losses.

Not necessarily. The design of the box itself and its cooling solution are independent of yield issues.