I dont think they are gonna buy any game developer this year because of the abk stuff. I dont expect it also next year. They are also probably done with AA devs since their focus is now on big publishers.
My prediction is that it’ll be awhile before they consider another publisher. Assuming ABK closes, they’ll have increased their studio count by about 26 in 5 years and that’s under-selling it considering that some of these studios contain multiple AAA teams and have grown considerably since purchase. In addition, ABK isn’t a “leave them alone” type situation similar to Zenimax. A lot more management shakeup needed there. New mobile presence. Major PC presence and storefront. Expanded platform support with Nintendo. Have to determine what they’ll do with IPs. Tons of opportunity but that also means a lot of moving parts.
My gut feeling is that Microsoft will try to ensure they have all hands on deck with ABK and won’t dilute the focus until they feel their $69 billion crown jewel and most expensive acquisition by far is humming along smoothly and the dust settles. It’s a real concern in business that growing too fast is a significant risk and often comes with inefficiencies.
Additionally, another publisher will mean another 1.5 years of regulatory battles. In today’s political climate, there’s going to be a continued challenge to M&A norms as regulators try to change that landscape. In this transition, regulatory agencies will continue to be activist and over-correct against big companies and specifically Big Tech. I wouldn’t be surprised if other planned purchases are put on hold (like OpenAI) while Microsoft tries to feel things out. Eventually things will level out, they’ll know exactly how to navigate it, and then maybe something like a publisher gets put back on the docket. Instead, what I believe Microsoft will do is invest in major partnerships. Not blow their chance with some of these companies in this climate. Like OpenAI, where they’ve invested billions to lock them down strategically while not having any doors closed on them to acquire them in the future where there will be better opportunities to get through regulatory processes.
I could see a significant investment in a company and in return, ensure years of Day One GP deals. Specifically, with some of these Japanese publishers. That would be a good way to build a strategic alliance and potentially create a situation where they’d be a realistic acquisition target in say five years.
Outside of that, they own 2 publishers and Booty’s division has had time to stabilize. They should have a better structure to add individual studios. I could see developers who they have strong partnerships with being next up. Certain Affinity makes sense ASAP. Asobo fills that cinematic studio gap.
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I’m hoping someone will pick them up. Since they are a talented team and studio. And it would be nice to see more Aragami games or more games with a similar style.
And Focus Entertainment or Embracer would be solid choices to acquiring them if Microsoft doesn’t pick them up.
Sure many companies are cutting back but companies are still always looking for talent it’s just going to be limited.
I think am going to state the obvious.
Don’t you guys and gals think that the next publisher Xbox Acquires is more likely Paradox Interactive?
I mean they have been getting along quite well over the last few years as well as them partnering up to make this new showcase as well as numerous game pass deals. I genuinely think it might be cemented in the next few years or months, who knows.
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It could be. That would also make sense with the ABK deal.
You get paradox and suddenly you have tons of developers that do strategy games… and you have Warcraft and Starcraft ready to be developed again. You could innovate with those franchises or just do sequels. While also having tons of new Paradox games/DLC to fill up PC gamepass.
Paradox is a good target, Game Pass works well for their type of games. I think a lot of people like those strategy games but they end up being pushed aside in people’s budget for more “AAA” stuff. Maybe they are happy with their current Game Pass arrangements, maybe they jump on board team MS, who knows.
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That’s a good point and I agree with you. However, the most struggling publishers are currently in the West (Ubisoft and Warner). So this criterion could significantly reduce our hopes for the acquisition of a Japanese publisher.
SEGA could still be on the table thanks to its long-standing relationship with XBOX (this was also one of the criteria mentioned for Bethesda) and the possible development of the company under XBOX, but the publisher is doing very well financially and nothing obliges him to sell for the moment.
I’m curious if Microsoft will succeed in making a big acquisition in Japan or if it will continue to expand in the West due to the obvious opportunities.
I mentioned this a little earlier in the discussion. Paradox is one of Xbox’s great partners and I love that they’re now bringing their games to console. Paradox isn’t a big acquisition and will only appeal to a certain type of gamer, but I like the relationship it shares with XBOX and wouldn’t mind if it joined the family in the years to come. If that were to happen, I would like Paradox to acquire some of its partner studios (Colossal Order, Tantalus Media, Haemimont Games…) and reach a new quality standard thanks to Microsoft. Like I said last time, SEGA is great for PC gaming, but Paradox is also a pretty good option if you can’t get SEGA.
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I don’t like Paradox because they already seem pretty willing to dump a bunch of games in Game Pass Day 1. If you’re already getting that, what’s the point of the acquisition?
Ensuring it doesn’t go away in the future (bioware, etc.), proving commitment to PC gamers, and investing in more exclusive content with them that they might not currently get. Not saying it will happen, but I do think the synergies are there.
Well ideally you’d want to acquire developers you have a good working relationship with and those who feel that GP benefits their games. You’d want an arrangement that benefits both parties by lowering costs and allowing more money to go into employees and the actual game development.
It wouldn’t be ideal to acquire developers that don’t like GP or feel forced into doing things they don’t like. You can buy a studio but you can’t own the talent.
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MS wouldn’t have to pay for the games to be in gamepass and they would reap all the revenue from game sales. Also, there’s no guarantee Paradox will continue to be amenable to gamepass deals in the future.
I’m not arguing for or against it, but Paradox would probably be a good fit to bolster MS’s PC efforts.
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After ABK I’d think they’d like to let things simmer. Considering Microsoft is acquiring these publishers as subsidiaries they probably want them to maintain some form of independence which allows each subsidiary to acquire studios and grow. Any publisher now would have to come from other regions like Asia or Africa for example.
I think Sega would be a better pickup than Paradox. Xbox can have more of a presence in Japan and Sega also has studios that could help Microsoft with their PC efforts with Relic Studios and Creative Assembly
Paradox games must be doing well on game pass if they’ve continued their relationship across multiple games and even have one of their bigger upcoming games launching on the service. Their current market cap is 2 billion - so all that output for about the same as Sony spent on Bungie? Sounds good to me.
If Microsoft could only buy one publisher - Sega would be a better acquisition for sure, but given Paradox is pretty small as far as publishers go I kind of assume that we’re discussing them on top of any other possibilities. Like I mention above - there’s individual studios bigger than Paradox as far as market value goes.
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There are reasons to buy Paradox (or most other publishers), I agree. It seems like a bit of a waste given the increase scrutiny being put on Xbox acquisitions nowadays.
They are only going to get away with so many more publishers before they get their hands slapped and I don’t think the benefits that come with Paradox come close to some of the other options.
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That’s fair, I think if Paradox had to come at the expense of other potential acquisitions there might be a different tone to the conversation around them. I think it just depends how limited Microsoft are in future acquisitions.
A year or two i would have been against paradox but if it does happen one day I’d be okay with it.
In all reality, besides maybe a company or two i can’t see any big developers or publishers for years
I think the interest for XBOX with Paradox (and others) is to grow organically with long-time partners who share the same values and vision for the industry. Paradox games are often released day one on GP, but these are games that are updated (DLC) and played by gamers for years. I also think it’s more encouraging for a player to buy DLC on FP content that won’t leave GP than on temporary content. Given Microsoft’s strategy with GP, it will ultimately be more profitable for them to acquire these partner studios and publishers, rather than spending money on fixed-term contracts for GP. Paradox may not be essential, but I don’t think it’s uninteresting either. Paradox shouldn’t be a concern for regulators, otherwise it would be dramatic for Xbox development in the future. I agree that SEGA is a better acquisition than Paradox, even though the games developed are significantly different (and may complement each other), but SEGA is not a guaranteed acquisition either. So I think Paradox has a place on the list of possible acquisitions.
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More resource for their devs, getting unlimited access to IP, not having to negotiate every gamepass deals, further strengthening gamepass offerings to “hardcore” PC gamers. And btw, most of Paradox games are not on Gamepass.
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Capcom is not happening. They are about to release re4 remake. Monster hunter world 2 will be a huge hit as well. Xbox buying square and keeping things multiplat would be more beneficia.