you know you could argue my other points intellectually rather than single out the first 3 words.
this is going to receive scrutiny from the FTC moreso than bungie. it is not a done deal 100%, i have it 75/25 happening and the 25 is still a pass but with concessions.
the FTC and white house is emboldened right now to look like they are doing something, anything, for the everyman. they do not want the appearance of handwaiving this through while they are trying to structurally untie meta into seperate entities and rollback the whatsapp and instagram deals.
yeah alot of people are taking the wrong apoplication of the word monopoly and consolidation here but there also seems to be alot of incorrect applications going around to make politcial / deabte arguments.
I have questions as to how everyone is handwaving away concerns about one deal but not the other without explaining accurately how they’re different. Being a Private or Public company is not a reason of differentiation between the deals.
Why will this MS+Activision face more scrutiny when Sony is the market leader (or in a strong second place)? They would be expanding their first party reach while they continue their third party exclusive deals and look to have a few “second party” style of deals going on too.
Is it strictly because of the dollar amount? It isnt because of Microsoft’s current position because they’re only fifth place and would only move up to third place.
Maybe Knottian or profjjj will lend a hand and help point out why they’re different enough to facilitate different levels of scrutiy.
Microsoft doesn’t need concessions. If the FTC makes a fuss about it, Microsoft can just tell them to tell Sony (who has more more marketshare already btw) to stop moneyhatting Street Fighter and Final Fantasy.
I don’t get where people think Microsoft needs concessions when their competition is already ahead regardless.
Nadella was exactly right. FTC has NO right to demand ANY concessions.
Bungie is a single developer with about 800 employees and currently owns a single IP (new IP is in the works). Additionally, by all indications maintains what appears to be complete independence.
ABK is:
The biggest third party publisher in the industry
has about 10,000 employees
is made up of of 11 studios, many with multiple teams (Blizzard alone is 5000 employees with 5+ teams)
has yearly revenue north of 8 Billion dollars per year
owns dozens of HUGE ip both past and present
the purchase price is nearly 20x the purchase price of Bungie
Additionally, Bungie will be reviewed. The purchase price is well beyond the 92 million threshold for DOJ/FTC review. Whether it goes to the second deeper review is to be seen. One has far far far less implication for the industry as a whole. There is a reason you didnt hear any of this when MS made individual studio purchases of their own.
This is on top of what has already been discussed. The regulators decide what the market is. To be clear, no one knows definitively how the regulators will look at the transaction. They could look at it and be like “eh, video games, who cares” or they could view the market as specifically and narrow in scope as the want. There is no way to know till it all happens.
You have to keep in mind as well that any objections that regulators may have to the deal can either be assuaged with assurances or concessions. ( I dont think concessions will be necessary either)
But more importantly, the objections have to be something they would want to bring legal action against. The don’t disapprove the deal and it ends, they would have to take it to court. Which also seems incredibly unlikely.
It will be scrutinized because it is the right thing to do. Ultimately it will go through, I really dont think there is much to worry about.
There really isn’t a lot to worry about with this. In the grand scheme of things this would be one of the least egregious thing to pass review. Examples of things that passed:
Disney buying Fox
T-mobile Buying Sprint
America Online Buying Time Warner
Pfizer Buying Warner-Lambert
Exxon Buying Mobile
Any number of Cable/Content creators buying National/Regional Cable/Content companies
There is very little possibility that it would be blocked. I think some concessions is the worst possible outcome as this goes through the process.
Bit of a tangent but this is a great life tip right here, I used to do this a lot when I was younger and its a one way ticket to nervous breakdown town.
On the subject of FTC blocking etc it could happen, but more likely scenario is just some concessions put in place to get the deal over the line.
