I mean… they really aren’t that far off for showcase. And frankly anything that’d play well at TGAs would play well at Showcase.
Now, there are strategic considerations at play here.
With the TGAs, you have folks that are out of market. With Showcase, you have more market qualified eyes. I’d argue MS is very cogniscent of this. If you look at their big TGA reveals in the past few years, they have been a sequel to a former PS Exclusive that falls within the genre PS fans like, a revival of a legacy Nintendo-64 Era Series and a new console. These are the sorts of ads that benefit from a wider demographic.
Showcase, for example, is also free. While I’d argue Keighley has been decently good about the slots TGAs provide for Xbox titles (possibly in part because of what MS pays), MS has expressed frustration at the webcast in the past. Things like the muting of the audience or reveals not being set up the way they like. With Showcase, Xbox has control over every facet of the production. If they want megacheers they can livefeed in audio from a Brazilian soccer match if they really want. They can control everything from changing their stage to “hacking the show” to starting cold on a blank screen and having Richard Ayeode talk about sandwiches before trumpets proclaim Fable is coming.
Another important consideration. Showcase is “free”, TGAs isn’t. MS can, if they really wanted and had the means, projectile vomit info at a clip nobody’s seen. Do a Starfield direct sized reveal for every game. With the TGAs, you need to buy slots. The bigger and more prestigious the slots, the more money it costs.
So, with this being the case, why fucking bother attending when you can make an arguably wiser decision financially on your own. Well, because there are optics for not showing as well. This is a celebration night for the industry, and as much as the San Francisco Cabal likes to piss in our cornflakes, the Xbox Community is every bit a part of the industry. Like us or not. And so having big reveals helps reinforce current Xbox owners, turn heads and interest new eyes.
All of this is a very long-winded way of saying, Xbox can achieve similar TGA results in a more cost effective manner, so they need to be (and often are) more strategic in how they allocate assets for these third party shows. But make no mistake, they are by no means beholden to it, and if they truly wanted, they can and have survived and thrived without them.
Now I truly do hope they show up meaningfully this year. Selfishly, I want them to show up big, but with the arguable disrespect in the noms this year, I think they can do a lot with a little bit and save a few extra goodies to bump their E3 even higher.