Prediction: Xbox will stay head to head in hardware sales

I found this tweet extremely interesting and then when you consider Xbox’s launch plan

  • Launching at once in 36 countries
  • $299 next gen Xbox is a no-brainer price
  • Game Pass (This is every parent’s dream, even if a kid asks for Playstation, a parent would be more inclined to buy an Xbox instead because of sheer amount of games you get than paying near $100 per game). In addition you have PC games and mobile games covered under one membership.
  • Backwards compatibility lets current Xbox owners transition seamlessly
  • Xbox All Access - this isn’t being talked about enough now that it is rolling out to 12 countries and letting anyone with a credit card walk out of a store with a console + hundreds of games for 25-35 dollars is a massive shift in decision making

I know most of us believe its not possible due to last generation, but Xbox has never had a launch plan like this before with the lowest barrier of entry + access to hundreds of games. I think sales will surprise and be much closer than we think.


I don’t know about having roughly equal sales, but I do expect Xbox to do MUCH better in the upcoming gen. Just how much better remains to be seen.


I highly doubt they would have equal sells and I think Microsoft is completely fine with that. If they weren’t they wouldn’t have opened up their first parties to PC. They want people to be a part of their ecosystem and console sales are one part of that.

Sony and MS have completely different direction this generation and it’s interesting for us gamers. MS are on a great track so far rebuilding trust with the consumers.

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Do they? I recall reading a Sony exec also saying “engagement” is the metric just like MS. If that is so, I definitely see a future where MS can not only stay head-to-head but also surpass. Sony is on PS and limited PC. MS is on Xbox, PC and (semi-limited) mobile phones. The opportunity for engagement is heavily skewed to Microsoft’s favor by that metric (in a vacuum).

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That poll seriously underrepresents how well Xbox Series S will sell. No one who follows John Linneman on Twitter is in the Series S target audience. :slight_smile:


That poll will skew heavier towards series X than anything else because it’s digital foundry. Those that follow it will be more likely to buy the most powerful console. The PS5 is still handsomely in the lead and think will sell twice what the Xbox X and S combined do worldwide at least…

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Xbox Series S/X will perform better than the Xbox One, but unsure if Microsoft can do well in Asia and Europe. I think Xbox will perform well in North America and UK, but unsure about other markets. I do like how Microsoft is aggressive with all access and series s pricing which might do well in some countries

I dunno. Sony isnt guaranteed a victory just because it’ Sony. This next gen is not guaranteed for anyone. I definitely believe Microsoft will do much better than most think they will next gen.

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I agree with you OP. Nobody is comfortable saying it, or nobody wants to consider it as possible but there is no reasoning behind those stances. I expect MS to dominate the casual marketshare with XSS and All Access. I expect them to be a secondary console for TONS of PS5 owners for GP and multiplatform titles via All Access. I expect them to be pretty competitive with hardcore gamers too. That all adds up to an extremely competitive generation, even using ancient paradigms like ‘hardware sales’.

I’d also add that PS4 gained and Xbox lost 360 gamers last time around. That didn’t boost PS4 only, it also pulled gamers from X1’s potential base. That could very well reverse this time around so PS5 will underperform against PS4 and XSX/XSS will drastically outperform X1.

I think there will be lots of more meaningful metrics that outright favor Xbox though and won’t even be close.


Nobody does well in Asia for traditional consoles anymore. PS5 will sell FAR less than PS4, which sold far less than PS3 in Japan. That’s a region where Sony’s lead is no longer all that important going forward unless they adopt a radical new platform strategy.

This might be a good thread to link to various polls.

Like an election tracker, polls can fluctuate, have their issues, and drastically change with new information cropping up.

Web polls aren’t necessarily reflective of the general public. The Series S is not at all faring well on Twitter polls, but those polls are often made up of responses from hardcore gamers, not the millions of parents that will pick up a console for Christmas or Black Friday.

This web poll was undertaken by IGN last year with over 40,000 responses. It showed the PS5 with a 2:1 lead over the Xbox. These results seem consistent with polls taken this year.

When other useful metric are Google search queries, to determine interest. Unfortunately for Xbox, the PS5 seems to be getting three to five times the queries on Google.

I figure after the Series S reveal that this has changed a bit.

There is a lot of talk about next gen console sales but they seem to be ignoring the reality that many parents will be looking at picking up a cheap current gen console for their kids.

Typically this will mean the PS4 and the Switch are prime options for those parents but the Series S changes all of that. Now parents can get a console that is future proof for a similar price to these other two machines.

With this in mind perhaps the most interesting poll is “what console will you be buying this fall” because this includes the many people eyeing the PS4 and the Switch so that their kid can play Fortnite with their friends. If Microsoft plays their cards right the Series S can absolutely dominate that poll.

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I won’t touch a PS4 unless I can borrow one from my nephew or some such. I don’t trust the hardware. Now the switch I have been fighting on making an actual purchase. There are a good number of games I’m interested it. However, I’ve waited so long that the rumors of a Switch Pro or sequel have me holding off. Add in that the Series S is cheaper than a Switch with much more capability, and the Switch has lost some of it’s value. Not to mention I’ve already spent the holiday gaming budget on the Series X’s (crossing fingers I get them) and a wee bit left for some new games.

If I back away from my proclivities and dislike of Sony’s hardware (I do like some of their IPs, though), I still think you have a great point! Series S is in a great position for causals, families, and even hardcores (shout out to Sunset Overdrive!) second console. With All Access giving a super-low entry price in a very unstable economy and I have no doubts it has the potential to explode (in a good way).

Let’s be clear about something, Xbox won’t become a sales leader over night, or anything like that. Even with the value proposition, user friendly policies, and many other things being clearly in their favour, it’s still to be expected that PS5 will have a significantly better launch and launch period sales. But I’ll be suprised if over time Xbox doesn’t erode that advantage at least to some extent. Even taking the lead is not out of the question if they keep improving. That said, the hardware lead is not really their main priority.

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Yeah, no. I expect them to stay behind maybe makeup some ground. It would be great if they close the gap some but their new strategy means that console sales aren’t as important.

If they sell more than 75 million it will be a big success for them.

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lol no they won’t

MAYBE in America and the UK. Maybe

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True, but should be interesting if they can crack into the south korean market. Microsoft seems to be heavily advertising Xcloud and gamepass there, but unsure if that translates to console sales or just that market being subscribed to gamepass

That was enough during the 360 cycle. And that without their new strategies at play, which are extremely aggressive.

Microsoft’s 2 best markets for Xbox are the US and UK besides a few Latin America countries. Xbox should do pretty well in both and maybe even win. Outside of them things get interesting. Because it seams the weaker the country for Xbox the more Sony has price gouged their console/games. Europe and Canada both Xbox has a really good pricing advantage and could make up significant ground.

I think best case senerio Xbox could match Ps5 when not counting Asia. Sony’s brand is just to strong over there.

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Not a chance.

Sony’s mindshare is immense.

MS is playing a different game.

gamepass subscriptions.