That falls right in with game streaming. They don’t need to manufacture a console for that.
I could see in the future a Microsoft that does the following
No console hardware manufacturing.
Gamepass the biggest game subscription offering.
GP will be available on all smart TVs, Apple phones, Android and PS.
GP will include both digital download of the game, and game streaming via x cloud.
Microsoft with all their game engine technology (idtech, Forza Tech etc) will create a engine to rival UE.
Direct X will become the default gaming API.
Microsoft will continue to buy up IP and studios to become the biggest game publisher in the world.
I understand what you are foreseeing here, but there are some problems we don’t know yet how they will solve, like the fact that not every game studio wants their games on cloud. Consoles have an important role in this matter.
That said, we have a syntactic problem here. What you’ve listed is way more than what a publisher really does.
Phil Spencer has talked over and over again one of the reasons that gamepass is so great is that it brings people into their ecosystem to purchase stuff. Right now that is really Windows store and Xbox, moving forward it will include Battle.net. They have a massive advantage in game streaming over tv/movie streaming because of this. It is an exponential add for them. They won’t ever drop this in my opinion. In fact I half expect the Windows phone to make a come back at some point with its own storefront in an effort to push mobile revenue up higher since Apple and Android won’t let storefronts on their platforms.
Um all their Xcloud servers are Xbox based so they are going even deeper into hardware. Also the plan isn’t going to be to sell hardware at a loss to get people into your ecosystem, they’ll be selling hardware for profit for those that want it. The make Surface tablets/laptops but still ship Windows on other hardware. If they get Game Pass and all of the “Xbox Experience” on Playstation, the PS would essentially be an Xbox. Just like a Dell computer is a Windows computer.
This is why Sony is behind on the back-end of their user experience, they still tying their users to the hardware. They (sort of) have PS3 users, PS4 users, PS5 users as separate groups. It seems like they don’t really want to mix them unless forced. MS on the other hand is trying to have you as a Microsoft (Xbox) user. You have an account that is not tied to hardware and they want you to be able to access it in as many places as possible. This is similar to PC. You buy a game for Windows and it doesn’t matter what your actual hardware is over time.
But they will still keep selling their games outright. It won’t just be streaming or subscription. They will sell their games on Steam etc.
They will continue to publish as well.
They can get chips from AMD to put in their server farms for xcloud without the need for a console. Google introduced game streaming and never had a console.
A console becomes more profitable the more you sell.
If MS in some way gets GP on PS, then they will stop selling anywhere near the amount they are. It then becomes like the Zune.
Steam boxes never really took off, and they just dropped them.
You either need to be all in on console, which means keeping exclusives to your platform, or not.
Hardware is in Sony’s blood, so I think they will stick it longer than MS, but eventually I just think it makes more sense for say AMD, Intel and Nvidia to create the consoles.
In 2022 (and the near future) they need to be all in on console because console has the highest attachment rate with services. As streaming takes over then everything will change… for Sony as well.
Your concept of AMD/Intel/non platform owners making consoles has already proved to unsustainable with the 3DO.
If both Open App Market Act (US) and Digital Market Act (EU) regulations go ahead (in 4-5 years?)… I would not be surprised if xbox is preparing themselves in case they need to focus on being a publisher (as main source of revenue). Note that these regulations would force Playstation (if enough users have a PS5) to allow third party stores… such as xbox (game pass).
But they will not abandon the console market. It is another tool to set baselines / frameworks for the whole gaming community (including themselves, and microsoft enterprise customers).
They’re making console games with their own dedicated hardware for a reason. This assumption is some extreeeeeeeeeeme copium after Xbox clawed it’s way out of the 2013 hole lol.
I’d be floored if Microsoft got out of being a platform now. The console is still lucrative when dealing with customers who prefer consoles over PC. Like…maybe in another timeline…but after Microsoft has spent nearly 80 billion dollars over the course of two years for content, built the best subscription service and value in entertainment, got their hardware game together, built the lowest cost local hardware option, can now roll hardware into a subscription fee for the lowest entry to barrier for console gaming ever…nah. I used to be sure that they’d put Game Pass on PlayStation if Jim Ryan allowed. As I’m thinking about it today, I’m not sure either side wants that now. I think the Activision acquisition changes things. They’ve spent 20 years trying to build a console brand. It’s not the point in the future but there’s no point in throwing it away. It’s still lucrative and it’s still the best way to add new Game Pass subscribers for the next few years. Beyond this gen…they’ll be market leader. Why give up your strength as a platform once you finally take over the industry’s the driver’s seat?
Microsoft would like gamepass on playstation consoles and switch consoles. Do you think they’re going to ask their studios to spend years trying to port all their games over? Are they going to renegotiate all those contracts with 3rd parties? No, they want the cloud version on those consoles which is still going to be a long way from being a great experience
What it would come down to is they keep making consoles for those that still buy them, but they’d also have Game Pass on PS5. And I bet tons of people will just move to PS5 altogether.
It’s all based on what Grubb has been speculating about lately.
