I really hate how Tusk has messed up “X” to the point of being unable to view anything or unroll longer threads without submitting to his platform. I dont suppose anyone has posted a ThreadReaderApp UNROLL of that series of FOSS posts?
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Oddly enough I got a 404 clocking on the link in that tweet, but found the article here. Not sure if it acted up for anyone else or not. But certainly thanks for sharing the information! I’ll mark it up to Xwitter being musked up.
It’s clear that Microsoft believes that the latest developments - EC commitments, the Sony contract, Jim Ryan’s email, and Google’s expert testimony during the FTC trial that ‘cloud competes with console and PC’ should satisfy the CMA with the current merger.
However, should the CMA still prefer a divestiture, it’s possible that both the CMA and MS use the latest developments to fast track the process. If both parties have some basic agreement on what the divestiture will look like (rumored to be cloud rights sold to EE), then the CMA could use the current developments to clear the deal, allowing MS to complete the divestiture (based on whatever was agreed upon behind closed doors) after closing.
I don’t know if tencent would be able to purchase ABK. As the PGA LIV golf tour merger is also coming under extreme scrutiny because of the foreign entities involved. You can also look back at huawei a Chinese phone company who attempted to expand into the US and was basically told no.
Sony gets away with being able to buy bungie. If a company was going to buy ABK it would need to be a company in Europe, Japan, North America, or Australia. Some South American companies would be clear as well.
However, the issue you run into is within the countries that would even be allowed ot make a purchase like that. Only so many companies could secure a loan, have enough assets to sell, etc. that would be able to come up with that kind of money.
As look at sony just as an example. The total assets of sony are 240 billion dollars. That would mean sony would have to leverage over 1/3 of total assets of its entire company to buy ABK or put it up as collateral for a loan. Then if you get a loan the interest rates right now are a little over 7%. What company is going to want a loan for 70 billion at 7% interest rate at best.
People are misreading the submission today. There is still a proposition to the CMA thats submitted and the context for arguing about the change is because that addresses material changes to the deal that impact globally. The CMA did previously take a global stance.
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Exactly. This is merely the paperwork for the CMC we listened to weeks ago on that Monday.
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Agreed. For the CMA to block the deal on cloud, even after the latest developments, they are essentially saying that they believe that Microsoft would be stupid enough to not only battle the EU, but Nvidia, Sony, Nintendo, and every other cloud provider they have signed a 10-year commitment with.
Microsoft is a massive company with a near unlimited amount of money, but they are not stupid.
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August is almost here. The engine is about to engage.
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Ah yes, August. The endgame release date. Here’s a video to kill time with.
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Not looking so promising. https://www.law360.com/technology/articles/1705238/-microsoft-activision-not-done-by-any-means-
Ah man, I was so scared to not having bad vibe in a long time, which is like a tracking number for how many day without incident. Anyway:
https://twitter.com/fosspatents/status/1686736989784096770?s=46&t=O_AGT9SEnlptKOF_2SxtqQ
https://twitter.com/fosspatents/status/1686736991658913792?s=46&t=O_AGT9SEnlptKOF_2SxtqQ
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Thats is a FUD made by a Law professor from NY thats doesnt know nothing about the case. Dont worry
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A vast majority of that site opinions regarding the acquisition has been wrong, you know why? Because they are just opinions of “experts” who wants to chime in and I find those to be completely worthless at this point.
For example I recently found this article in which another expert stated this:
“I’m not sure these were the sort of material circumstances originally envisaged when the act was put together, but there is nonetheless a live issue as to whether they are ‘material’ enough to justify a complete about turn by the CMA,” said Alex Haffner, a partner at the UK law firm Fladgate.
However, Haffner said he expected the CMA and Microsoft to agree new remedies in order to get the deal over the line. Microsoft said in its submission it was in the “advanced stages of putting forward a proposal to modify” the deal.
So does that mean the expert of the Guardian’s article is correct and the one from that article dont? The simple answer is: both are useless. Why? Because, as I said, at this point in time these people know as much as you and I do which is zero considering this case is something unprecedent and nothing the M&A business as seen before.
But hey if someone wants to dance to the “yes, it will go through” or “no, its blocked” from all the articles that are probably coming from experts then more power to you. I personally found them worthless and prefer the silence and wait of something substantial than unnecessary drama 
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I’ve discussed how this “expert” game works on the forum before. But I’ll say a few words again here.
I am a “legitimate” expert in a handful of closely related topics (basically having to do with asset valuation, fundamental analysis, and corporate financial policy). I have the degrees, professional accreditations, work experience, and publications to “prove” that expertise.
Yet I am routinely asked to provide expert commentary by journalists on topics I have literally no expertise in - mainly issues relating to the macroeconomy or consumer finance. Most journalists don’t know enough about the topics they cover to know a real expert from a psuedo (or outright phony) expert - and they are always working on deadlines. So, if they can get anyone with some initials after their name to comment on the record for a story they will jump at that chance.
As to why the phony experts are willing to do this - my only real guess is that some people just really like to see their name in the newspaper or their picture on TV. Of course there is also the chance that if an “expert” becomes known enough in a certain market they will be able to monetize their “expertise” in some way - such as consulting engagements or through a regular gig as a commentator for a media outlet.
The crazy thing about the “expert” game is that even though I know how it works, I am still tempted to fall for the “expert” opinion when I read it in the media - as long as it’s not in my field. I can instantly recognize in my fields that about 75% of the “expert” opinion in the media is drivel. It’s probably safe to assume that the same ratio holds true in most fields.
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Wasn’t he also the ‘expert’ who claimed the FTC had a legitimate claim to challenge the judge’s Corely ruling as it wasn’t based on the correct standard or some such nonsense?
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Remember, Lina Khan is a lawyer too…… Lawyers are not immune to political agendas/ideology. They can have some have personal views/ideology that goes beyond established laws and precedents.
Also, even if the CMA don’t clear it’s become obvious that MS will carve out Activision in the UK.
I don’t think there is a carve out that works on any level. Not that would let them legally close the deal nor that is even practical.
If CMA still block then my guess is the only option is to close over them. I suspect MS won’t do that. But regardless it’s simply not coming to that. An agreement will be reached.