October is here. Get ready.
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Even when the acquisition closes this wonât be done by a long shot. Just episode 1 of season 2.
Letâs just hope it finally closes this month.
Goddamn itâs really time for that.
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Putside of the FTC adminstrative court the deal is pretty much done at the regulatory level
BUT
The effects of this are just getting starting, between all of the consolidating bad talks and more buyouts,
I really want to know what happens if MS tries to buy another notable publisher
I think they can get away with small publishers though
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I think itâs clear the FTC are going to be on them for anything notable going forward.
The thing is - the FTC are clearly hell bent on stopping anything but canât.
The CMA and EUâs issue was IP valuable to cloud gaming future competition concerns. So there are I think boundaries on what sort of a publisher acquisition could reasonably trip such concerns. Not that MS could buy them but Capcom as an example probably donât have an IP that is massively dangerous in the cloud gaming market - regulators might try and argue that any existing IP is but then there is already a remedy in place in that scenario.
Console market SLC simply hasnât stood up to scrutiny and donât see anything changing in next 5 years that would alter that.
So what youâd be looking at is a challenge that MS as a games publisher is too dominant. Because another large publisher acquisition could in theory push them towards some level of dominance in that market. No regulator seriously considered that this time but next time I suspect its their only real viable lane.
Which to me suggests that lower turnover publishers are still viable. The process will be a headache for MS though. And that for me is more the issue - how much headache are they prepared to take ? The costs of acquisition arenât just how much you spend but also the massive manpower and resources poured in over the last (nearly) 2 years. I imagine that is a bigger deterrent than we might imagine.
I have been wondering recently about an alternative strategy for MS might be to use their ID@xbox programme and turn that into a full blown publishing arm and acquire a number of indie studios under it. Each one would be under the potential for regulatory challenge but they could build an indie gamepass factory with a big range of studios offering up varied content. The games could benefit from increased budget and you could almost offer the studios who want it a growth platform to get bigger and more ambitious. It would offset their AAA risks, allow for a more manageable steady stream of content and also offset rising gamepass day one deal prices we have seen discussed in their leaksâŚ
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At this point, Iâm thinking the FTC realizes itâs a losing battle but can at least drain Microsoft a bit more with lawyer fees? I dunno. The whole charade has been a marvel at waisting resources if you ask me.
If waisting money was a curriculum, the FTC would go down as the Harvard in doing so. Well done!
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He was one week off, so maybe the same here. Well, Iâm hoping. lol.
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Microsoft makes billions of dollars every month. There are not enough courts in the US to drain their money in a significant way.
If this is the plan i know the outcome. The FTC will have the worse case, the worse lawyers and will get spanked by the judge. And they will be the one with the bag and losing money. For 2024 the FTC got a significant budget cut. Good plan, good job!
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I kind of wish the 6th deadline was 12pm or something, to allow them to publicly state their final position that day, then MS announce closure by 5pm!
I know thatâs not really feasible though, so I expect it to close pretty much on Friday 13th (!!).
To be fair, this week we have a hard set date, so I wouldnât expect any surprise prior to it
This will be over within 16 days. Prepare yourselves.
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Got it. Only a wishful thinking. Either way, the final countdown!
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I think the bet is that if the case is âongoingâ the FTC doesnât have to talk about the finer details of the case at congressional hearings. But that would be pretty cynical.
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I think the funniest part of all of this is that there is all this anticipation and angst about all of this, but in a week it will just close and nothing all that significant will change in the short term, lol.
There will be a game pass drop of some stuff but then it will just be âwelp, MS owns ABK nowâ and everyone will just move on like nothing really happened.
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⌠and start talking about the next Publisher/Studio acquisition.
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Yeah, you know there will be interviews with Phil and Satya post merger. Someone is going to ask if they are still on the look out and they will probably reiterate that they are not done.
Cue more drama.
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The ironic thing is this is almost guaranteed, despite both stating numerous times that they plan to acquire more. It will be just like the whole âis Starfield exclusive?â argument (after Zenimax) which went on for 3 years, despite multiple confirmations.
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I have been talking about this since the ABK deal was announced. lol
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