The point is if they have decided they would at least give prior notice to investors or stockholders because in reality the money belongs for the most part to the stockholders. It doesn’t bode well to alert them on the day of extension.
Perhaps they are prepared to extend, but have not decided to extend yet. You don’t go into something like this with deadlines coming up without internally discussing the options. Investors don’t need to know those options until they choose one.
Agreed. The man is shrewd and was already trying to cut a deal with Sony for an extension in Europe also all this talk of extension for the CMA to not hurt their pride how about the investors or stockholders who will have to suffer delay because of a rogue regulator, surely the stockholders matter more. I think on Monday the CMA needs to remove that interim order to show good faith and let the deal pass and they can do their investigations and come back with their terms later on.
My point is the deadline is Tuesday which would mean by now they would have decided and known, and it would then make sense to alert the stockholders. I would assume they would alert some by letters which would need to have been written at least a week ago to give enough time to reach their destinations. Also, if I’m not mistaken the FTC tried to argue the date was not a deadline which Microsoft and Activision rebutted. Also, in their new appeal the FTC highlighted the CMA extension again. I would say closing by Monday or Tuesday is for the best, if the CMA is serious, they need to show good faith to all and to the other regulators they’ve tried to overshadow. I would also say maybe the contract allows for an extension in unforeseen situations or some difficulties like this where the investors need not be alerted however all I keep seeing is this deadline. It would be nice if Hoeg could chip in.
I think they’ll make an effort to resolve things with the CMA before they close. If the CMA is doing dumb stuff they’ll give them the finger, but the CMA has seemingly opened the door and it’s in everyone’s (except those of us tired of this) best interest for this to come to a clean closure and not a messy one.
If they are willing to engage in good faith, I think you do so and salvage that relationship so you aren’t in a bad place for future acquisitions.
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If he wants the $400M, he can’t walk away from the deal. He either close it, or walk away with the breakaway fee.
Microsoft isnt going to move forward with delaying without a signed extension from Activision. Theres too much risk Activision just walks. At the same time Bobby has no incentive to agree to sign an extension. He has all the flexibility in the world to just allow it to expire and walk at any point he wants. So yes, if Microsoft wants Activision/Bobby to sign an extension to minimize risk then they would have to fork over money to give Bobby that incentive to sign.
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CAT would take them out.
How does Bobby have any incentive to allow it to expire and walk? That makes no sense. He wants his pay day and he wants out of this situation.
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It is likely they have already talked with the ABK Board to have sufficient votes to approve any extension needed.
You’d have to believe he has a pathway to achieving the same or a better valuation for ABK’s shareholders.
The price right now is propped up based on the promise of the acquisition. If it fails, I imagine their stock falls with it and then he’s on the hook to find the next best way to increase the value of his company.
Or do you expect someone else to swoop in with a better offer? There aren’t that many companies out there capable of putting up such an attractive all cash offer.
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yeah who has the money and the motivation to buy a gaming company not many are willing to do that
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I realize this whole thread is for discussion and speculation around this crazy deal. But the simple fact is that Microsoft has poured everything from the top down into getting this deal to closure, including the hiring of some of the best lawyers in the world that just whooped the FTC twice and had the CAT already annoyed with the CMA.
There is zero chance that they aren’t going into next week with a very clear plan on how they will proceed here, and it won’t be subject to any ongoing whims of the CMA or risk from the Activision side of this.
I am personally still on team Monday or Tuesday before the current merger agreement date until proven otherwise for those reasons.
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I agree, Imo There’s no other company willing to put up that kind of offer, from what I remember of old reports. Kotick looked into trying to bring in more buyers once Microsoft made the offer and no one wanted to pay more or even match Microsoft.
They walk now, they lose the stock value and they will never be able to be sell for this amount of cash, because no one except Microsoft values ABK so highly.
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The idea of walking in mid July because it’d take until mid August is wild to me
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I also think they are not closing over CMA after agreeing to not taking the case to CAT, closing over CMA is always a nuclear option to force a pathway out of a dead-end, they have that pathway now, there’s no point to go nuclear anymore.
Aslo are there any reliable source claim either MS or AKB likely to drop the deal over short extension at all? so far, they only said they will drop the deal if the uncertainty is too high, but what with the CMA here is a very short and known timeline.
There is also the possibility they close before 18th with CMS’s consent, I think some article mentioned that’s an option.
Is this still getting done Monday in the states at least? Seem both MS and CMA will probably agree to a extension to get it done fully.
Waitied this long aleady so, i’m cool if it takes a while longer to get fully done with worldwide.
What I’m hoping for is that the meeting Monday is to allow Microsoft to close world wide, by having the CMA rescind their order.
While MS/ABK operate as separate entities in the UK until the whole new offer is finished being reviewed and approved.
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No, you dont need to believe that. ABK and Bobby have no incentive to agree to extend. They can literally just let the agreement date pass and either stick around as long waiting as they want or bolt whenever they want.
One of the three things below will happen:
A. Close before the agreement expires, potentially have some lost good will with a regulator in the UK.
B. Provide significant additional financial compensation to ABK to extend.
C. Accept the risk that ABK walks with 3 billion dollars and blows 18 months of a massive amount of time energy, business planning, and political favors that were spent.
Option C is a no go, there’s not a business out there that will take that risk. That makes the options a or b.
I think you explore both. There are options to get the CMA to allow the acquisition to close while they start the new investigation. Agreement on one of those avenues is most preferable and may be most preferable for all parties involved. It removes the possibility of the CMA looking weak again and obviously helps Microsoft.
If that isnt an option the CMA will take then you find out what the number is for ABK to extend and if its high then you close over based on the low historical penalties (even recent) for closing over. Some people have commented about wanting to maintain good regulatory relations, but it never did any good throughout and they’ve had excellent relations. There’s also frequently change in such positions.