At this point, after PI denial, I think both CMA and FTC are litigating in bad faith. MS should just close and pay to see what is going to happen in the UK, once, in the US, FTC is pretty much done.
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i donât think the CMAâs nonsense new investigation will stop the deal, itâs Monday or Tuesday, or they can do it after TRO ends
This is unrelated to mergers arbitration.
IIRC PachterâŚsaid the CMA can correct themselves. Personally iâd rather see them burn.
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You can close over a new investigation because there wonât be a final order.
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The CMA would need to lift their order but thatâs a good point. Maybe that is how it plays out, MS offer a new structure to the CMA for the merger. CMA agree to lift prohibition. MS close. CMA carry out investigation and waste everyoneâs time before passing it in phase 1.
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Interesting few days ahead then it seems
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The message of MS/ABK/CMA to freeze the process in UK was surely well prepared. It was waiting for the US order, but was in no way a result of it.
They did not see the order, call each other and say âmake a twitt about holding processâ, it was probably weeks old and the discussions have been made since.
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Yeah this is also a good point. So perhaps the CMA are simply trying to stick to their procedures and show the world they arenât âbucklingâ whilst finding a ladder to climb down.
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Did the CMA played Microsoft into a trap to stall until the deal dies�
Did the young and quite inexperimented CMA trapped the most expensive lawyers in UK ? What do you think about it ?
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Nah. Microsoft can now use the argument the CMA is the only venue on Earth blocking the deal and the EU and American courts concludedâŚthis deal is good for the cloud market. CMA are running scared.
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Anything can happen, this deal has been wild, especially the CMA, theyâve made it clear what their stance is and arenât showing signs of changing that.
Itâs the final countdown. Play every card you have before end of the road.
Everything that has happened has made sense from all sides with the exception of the FTCâs tactics.
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So are they able to close on Saturday, or do they need to wait for a weekday?
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FTC difference is they have check and balances, it remains to be seen.
If I would be strong on my position, I would not show any sign of discussion just now when they have refused to do it for months.
So the CMA is being a bitch after all, it sounds like? Boy they are pretty annoying. 
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https://twitter.com/hoeglaw/status/1678799251353092099?s=46
Are you serious? Every expert, including Florian and Hoeg, effectively see the deal as having just passed the final hurdle, and one of the smallest countries on the planet isnât going to be the singular holdup. Microsoft is closing this regardless at this point and theyâve already researched contingencies enough to know their options should CMA not budge. Why some of you are still acting like the sky is falling passed the âsus testâ a while ago.
Before someone says âbut UK is Xboxâs second biggest marketâ, I suggest you actually look at the material differences between 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. in revenues - hint: the delta is a hell of a lot smaller than some of you have been acting for the last six months.
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