All I know is that Microsoft is trying to make this into a big political battle. They might also be fine with the CMA/CAT dragging it for 3 years or whatever. They will try to isolate the CMA and If they can get EU approval, while winning the against the FTC in the U.S., they will be in a good position to pressure. There is a presidential election coming up, and they will lobby this to whoever wins next year, and that president( democrat or republican), might be more engaged about this topic than Biden currently is. International trade and regulation is not about national pride or sovereignty unfortunately, its about leverage. So despite us knowing about precedents right now, we are heading into a uncertain future where interest between nations will take start to take priority over shared ideological commonality.
Personally Iâve thought a lot about it and I think they might drop it. The cost of renegotiating the deal is going to be high - and potentially this is more damaging longer term to ABK than MS. Weâll see. Iâd like MS to fight it but I fear what the impact of that will be on Xbox. Weâve already heard they needed an all hands to address it all and this stuff does impact on peopleâs day to day with the uncertainty and also the distraction there.
Oh believe me, I wanted them to drop it too, and focus on what they have and acquire smaller publishers/big studios instead, but I understand why Microsoft might fight for it, because it goes beyond ABK, and they probably fear that this decision will impact their future investments in things that really matter to them and their wallet, like AI.
Ironically I think one or two members of their board might be happy because they probably see AI as a bigger money maker than ABK. I also think they will drop it by the end of May and the CMA decision doesnât really stop acquisitions, the cloud concerns are linked to the juggernaut of COD whether they claim it or not.
If MS were to go after someone considerably smaller like SEGA or CDPR and CMA attempted to stop that as well, thatâs the point whether rival companies might get a bit concerned about CMA. Sony would start to think any big investment could be scuppered as well. Weâll get into the area of CMA biting off more than they can chew.
Are they the same one or two members who wanted to can Bing not too long ago? 
On a more serious note, why do people assume that if they drop ABK and funnel it into AI that they wonât encounter similar roadblocks?
The reality is Microsoft needs to fight this anyway they can, whether that is through CAT or politically. You canât allow a regulatory body skuttle future deals based on feelings.
Precisely. Microsoft makes $100B profit per yearâŚthey pretty much have to keep acquiring all sorts of multi billion dollar companies to stop their bank accounts exploding.
The precedence of one tiny regulator holding this up is like prohibiting Disneys acquisition of Fox because it would give them a 70% market share of laserdisc movie sales.
Yup, im not gonna predict if it passes or not(its 99 percent gonna fail if left unchallenged politically imo), but if politics get involved, it becomes uncertain. If Microsoft drops, then for sure mobile will be their priority, then maybe another smaller publisher. But if I was them, and couldnât get COD or Overwatch etc, I would start poaching talent from successful GAAS studios like Infinity Ward, Blizzard(Alot are leaving right now), Respawn, Riot etc. and try to make the next big thing(yes its not guaranteed but what can they realistically do), and use their money to fund the game or studio. They have more resources than Sony, so if regulators hampered them in the acquisition front, they might as well play dirty like Sony is, not like they have any other choice.
The issue with this you potential anger partners like ABK, EA, etc. if you aggressively poach their talent. Now poaching Sony talent, go all out.
The moustache twirling villain in me would go to talent at Santa Monica Studios, Naughty Dog, Guerilla, Sucker Punch, etc. and say âHey, what ever Sony is paying you, we will double it.â
As annoying and stupid as all this stuff is, it at least makes me glad they were able to get Bethesda before all these clown decisions
I think if they can get EU and China to approve, they will move on and try to ringfence the UK or try to get a motion to close while their appeal goes on. I do not think they will drop this just for UK only regardless of what many are saying. If EU approves, then the CMA will really look like a rogue regulator.
Disney couldnât even afford Fox so the comparison is even worse (& the fact Disneyâs acquisition of Fox was permitted makes the CMAâs current ruling look like a total joke).
MS has all the money in the world to complete this purchase, Disney meanwhile needed financing.
The fact of the matter is that the CMA is stating the cloud gaming market to be some unstoppable monster but their projections for the market are less than the current market for video game controllers, so wtf are we talking about hereâŚ
Its pretty clear the CMA was 90% PS Vs. Xbox Re: CoD until last month and 10% everything else. Why waste all that time if that wasnât going to be the primary area of contention? It wasnât going to hold up as the foundation to block.
So they changed it to Cloud and fudged the numbers. They clearly donât want to act as a regulator, they want to allow monopolistic rises under the guise of a free market, as long as they donât have to do anything.
Thatâs not necessarily true. As the UK government uses Microsoft cloud. Gov UK cloud which is ran on azure. The UK uses surface machines. Not to mention office 365 and such while Iâm not sure if the government uses 365 many businesses in the UK do. Not to mention Microsoft is directly involved in the UK cybersecurity protection front. So you have matters that directly affect the governments day to day ability to function and national security. Especially if Microsoft was forced not operate or like apple once did just threaten to leave the UK market all together which would be crippling.
There is an argument to be made if Microsoft is blocked two things would come into question. If they settle with the FTC or just when the FTC loses in court, and the EU approves. Microsoft could close over the UK.
which would create a scenario that would impact the country, businesses and national security. Microsoft, amazon, etc. are one of the few the companies who could meet that criteria fairly easily.
I honestly think a week without Windows, Office, Teams etc. would have the country in chaos. No internet. No email. No spreadsheets. No iceland shopping delivery. Would be Mad Max 5.
Rather than saying what I think may/may not happen I wanted to say this.
If ABK had gone through CoD marketing would still be with PS until 2025 & newer titles unlikely to be on GP until that time. Outside of Blizzards upcoming survival IP (likely already scheduled as multiplat) Iâm not sure what else ABK has that could have been exclusive. Iâm assuming the studios will mostly be on CoD until after the 2024 Sony game is out.
Therefore if this deal was done today or in feb 2024 what would we have gotten? Not much.
P.S. My ADHD is destroying me right now, trying to not think/look at news about this deal but I canât switch off.
Yes letâs throw a country into complete turmoil because our VIDEO GAME deal didnât go throughâŚ
Come on lolâŚ.this isnât a Michael Bay movie.
China must laughing out loud of the western agencies clown show on this deal. It ends up being pointless to screen the world how China does this an that, as some usually like to do, when its own top agencies fights hard to mine their own economies. The situation is even worst on FTC. For these regulators, it seems ok monopolies on eletricity, water, food, med care; but really anticompetitive a 80 b deal that will affect (mostly positively) a âmarketâ of 2% (at best) of gaming industry. It is what it is.