Microsoft-Activision-Blizzard Discussion Thread |OT3| - Sony bends the knee!

[pip-boy3000]

@AllianceOfficer

That would be a really crappy thing for ATVI to do while the deal is pending, it would defeat several of their own statements about subscription services

this is the 6th CoD game to come to plus

[KageMaru]

@Kals_Els

Can anyone confirm if this was said? Because this guy supposively also said that the results of yesterday where neutral, when anyone with common sense could tell it went badly for the ftc lawyer.

I could be wrong, but I think she was referring to how the previous FF came out on Xbox. When she referenced last year, it sounded like she assumed FFXV came out the previous year.

[KageMaru]

@AllianceOfficer

That would be a really crappy thing for ATVI to do while the deal is pending, it would defeat several of their own statements about subscription services

They’ve already established that COD has been on PS+ before. What I don’t think the MS attorneys have done well is get clarity that it’s only ever been in the lowest tier for the monthly give aways, not the large catalog of available games seen in GP or the higher tiers of PS+. The latter is what Kotick has been against.

[TimPhoeniX]

@KageMaru

I could be wrong, but I think she was referring to how the previous FF came out on Xbox. When she referenced last year, it sounded like she assumed FFXV came out the previous year.

Maybe she has seen release dates on Stranger of Paradise and Crisis Core.

[mcolt]

https://twitter.com/FOSSpatents/status/1674019411374530561

[Zip]

@KageMaru

I could be wrong, but I think she was referring to how the previous FF came out on Xbox. When she referenced last year, it sounded like she assumed FFXV came out the previous year.

Yeah, that’s what I had seen as well.

@AllianceOfficer

That would be a really crappy thing for ATVI to do while the deal is pending, it would defeat several of their own statements about subscription services

I think the comments in the court case were thst acti would never consider releasing a current cod to a service.

[Vonterribad (Matt)]

@mcolt

https://twitter.com/FOSSpatents/status/1674019411374530561

Ouch.

[Daniel]

@AllianceOfficer

That would be a really crappy thing for ATVI to do while the deal is pending, it would defeat several of their own statements about subscription services

PS+ isn’t compared to Game Pass, in the trial they compared PS+ Extra and Premium to GP/GPU.

[Daniel]

@mcolt

https://twitter.com/FOSSpatents/status/1674019411374530561

Love this part, hate how this entire thing has always been about “but what about Sony consumers” and not the ones on Nintendo, GP, and the 6 different cloud providers.

[Zappy5]

@GamepadX

Yeah I’m noticing that already. Those people are already coming around and acting like we didn’t all notice thier 10,000 posts saying the exact opposite

The situation is still the same - it would be completely unprecedented and a massive risk. But the FTC pushing for a PI has arguably brought it into play. MS will have won in all major markets assuming the PI is rejected (and they close prior to any appeal) and then simply waiting for the CAT a process where the odds are stacked against MS seems somewhat at odds with how they are now trying to move.

Nobody really knows the consequences short and long term but MS presumably have assessed them. I think they will know their chances of overturning it at CAT are slim - they aren’t stupid. So they have to decide whether to just press ahead and hope to defeat the CMA when they try and order divestment down the line OR wait it out. But given they’ve pushed it hard it would only make sense for them to get on with it.

[Staffy]

Has Game Pass ever had a CoD before?

[Sparda3g]

@Staffy

Has Game Pass ever had a CoD before?

Nope.

[Daniel]

Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella to testify today

[profjjj]

@CallMeCraig

…I’m still a bit in disbelief the FTC hired this economist. He designed a model for market share and movements where every game is the same but argues in a case where CoD is a unicorn. Of course his reasoning is wrong.

This is one of his conclusions for PS2 gen if PS2 had no exclusives but Gamecube and XB got them all:

In the first specification when only the PS2 loses its exclusive titles, both entrant platforms gain total and hit titles, and sell an additional 5 percent hardware consoles combined; the PS2 sells 3 percent fewer consoles

??? Really? The PS2 gets no GTA, no Metal Gear, no Final Fantasy, no Tekken and only sells 3 percent fewer consoles? Who believes this? Who writes this with a straight face? Am i reading this paper wrong or what?

Putting my professor hat on for a moment…

This is exactly the kind of BS you get when economists try to build models from data but have no understanding of the cause/effect factors that drive the underlying data.

I’m sure he has a legitimate empirical/statistical model that gives these results, but models never tell the whole story.

I haven’t read the paper, but I really wonder what the R-squared and other significance measures of the model are. It’s not unusual at all for academic models to have quite low R-squared values - in the 30% range.

As long as some of the variables in the model have significance values greater than 95% (meaning the results could only be obtained through random chance less than 5% of the time) then the paper could be published. But if the R-squared is low (say 30%) then the model only explains 30% of what it claims to explain. The other 70% (or whatever) is determined by something outside the model.

[Mostlyharmless]

@SteadyMercury

See I think differently about that. Hear me out… I don’t think they have to choose between Activision and anything else.

If they want it badly enough, and it’s for sale, they can have it and Activision. They’ve got that list and I would imagine some of the studios on that list are in talks even now.

I definitely think you’re right. They have a list of studios they want to go after. But I think if the deal doesn’t go through than the amount of studios they actually end up buying is probably gunna double vs if they do get Activision.

[profjjj]

@profjjj

…no understanding of the cause/effect factors that drive the underlying data. I’m sure he has a legitimate empirical/statistical model that gives these results, but models never tell the whole story. I haven’t read the paper, but I really wonder what the R squared and other significance measures of the model are. It’s not unusual at all for academic models to have quite low R squared values - in the 30% range. As long as some of the variables in the model have significance values greater than 95% (meaning the results could only be obtained through random chance less than 5% of the time) then the paper could be published. But if the R squared is low (say 30%) then the model only explains 30% of what it claims to explain. The other 70% (or whatever) is determined by something outside the model.

So I just spent 2 minutes skimming through the paper. I only see an R squared value reported for the Software Fixed Effects model (Table 6). That model has an R-squared of about 8% for the entire sample. For the Xbox only sample the R-squared is less than 1%.

This is extremely weak sauce, even by academic standards. I’m actually shocked MS attorneys didn’t bring up the predictive power of his models during the cross examination. Maybe they poked so many wholes in his rationale they didn’t feel like they needed to - or maybe the newer models have better results…

[CallMeCraig]

@profjjj

So I just spent 2 minutes skimming through the paper. I only see an R squared value reported for the Software Fixed Effects model (Table 6). That model has an R-squared of about 8% for the entire sample. For the Xbox only sample the R-squared is less than 1%.

This is extremely weak sauce, even by academic standards. I’m actually shocked MS attorneys didn’t bring up the predictive power of his models during the cross examination. Maybe they poked so many wholes in his rationale they didn’t feel like they needed to - or maybe the newer models have better results…

Thanks for reading this paper and giving your input. I only read some of the data and the conclusions and was confused.

This is his paper about PS2 gen. I think he did a new one for this court case about XB1/PS4 gen (but didnt include Nintendo iirc), but could not find it online. This is all highly questionable.

[lunanto]

I am really surprised to see Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War releasing on PS+… I wonder if that means anything at all…

[Daniel]

'Call of Duty' maker to invest in Barcelona after EU approves Microsoft deal...

[Sparda3g]

@Daniel

The main event is getting hyped.

Edit: Is the lady who Phil was speaking to the lawyer?