Microsoft-Activision-Blizzard Discussion Thread |OT3| - Sony bends the knee!

[Andodalf]

@Mostlyharmless

That’s irrelevant and you’re dodging.

Diablo and wow are multibillion dollar franchises. Would it make financial sense for Microsoft to keep the next multibillion dollar blizzard IP off PlayStation? I’m not so sure.

You are vastly, vastly underestimating how much cash Cod brings in.

[Rsebi]

@FacelessSamurai

but when the next Diablo is released in 10 years I can definitely see it being Xbox and PC only.

Keep in mind itll be on cloud platforms too

[McMasters (Marty McMasters)]

@Mostlyharmless

Ya but I highly doubt they would do that if the game is nearly done. If it were to happen then obviously the deal needs to go through before the games announced.

Edit-

I was looking at some of the court documents. Microsoft has said that they intend for acti-blizzard to act independently much in the same way Mojang does.

So do I think the games will come to gamepass day one, yes I do. But will there be exclusives, I dont think so. The two new Minecraft games where both multiplatform.

There will be exclusives. You can bank on that. I can’t see spending tens of billions to not take advantage of the perks of being sole owners. Much like the Bethesda deal.

[Mostlyharmless]

@Shadowgasm

“It depends” is probably the best answer to this since we don’t really know what the game is and whether it’s intention is to make recurring revenue or not.

A lot of people didn’t think MS would make Starfield and the next Elder Scrolls exclusive, yet here we are.

I think you’re right. It depends is probably the best answer. Microsoft makes some huge games exclusive like starfield and others like Minecraft not.

On one knows for sure what going forward will be exclusive and what won’t. Call of duty appears to be multiplat for now since Microsoft has said as much. Everything else it’s unclear.

[Mostlyharmless]

@Andodalf

You are vastly, vastly underestimating how much cash Cod brings in.

No I don’t think think so. I’ve looked deeply at activision fillings as I’ve owned stock In the past and may again in the future.

One Call of duty game is unlikely to make more money than Diablo 4. The difference is call of duty has a game every year and Diablo DOES NOT.

Diablo 4 made 666 million$ in 10 days, and will likely go on to make 2-3 billion over a few years. Call of duty has made about 30 billion$ mostly from COD4 onward. There’s been like 17 games. So at or just under 2 billion for each.

[Rsebi]

@Mostlyharmless

One Call of duty game is unlikely to make more money than Diablo 4. The difference is call of duty has a game every year and Diablo DOES NOT

Modern Warfare 2 made over $1B in 10 days, Diablo 4 $650M in the same time

Sure Diablo 4 will make more over its 7-10 yesr life span but COD doesnt have to because the current iteration will stop making $ as soon as the new one comes out

Comparing Diablo to COD is pointless, Diablo 4 making $3B over 7 years is good MS would make a Diablo 5 exclusive (even though it’ll still come to PC and cloud platforms) you make it sound like cutting Nintendo and Playstation out is going to make some dramatic difference, in fact Diablo 4 isnt even on Switch right now so really you’d just be cutting out the Playstation user base

[Mostlyharmless]

@Rsebi

Zenimax Online is making a new live service game

If its exclusive or multiplatform, this will give us a clear indication of what MS will do with future live service games

It will definitely give some indication but not super clear. The new Minecraft games are live service but still multiplat.

I do think zenimax’s games has much greater than 50% chance to be exclusive. But if it was 90% done like this new blizzard game then I think it would almost certainly be multiplat.

That’s where this whole discussion started. I said that the survival game that’s almost finished would most likely be mutiplat. I just don’t see Microsoft canceling those platforms at this stage.

They canceled redfall and starfield ps5 versions but with both of those games development wasn’t even close to being finished.

If blizzard releases a new rts that’s out 3-4 years from now then ya I think it will PROBABLY release on Xbox and pc only.

[TechnicPuppet]

See honestly just my own opinion. Put most but not all of they games on all platforms. Pick and choose the ones that can make a difference being exclusives and cash in on the rest. That money gonna pay for more games.

Edit: just to add, what I am absolutely clear on though is that it should be MS choice how to approach it not regulator mandated.

[Rsebi]

@Mostlyharmless

The new Minecraft games are like service but still multiplat

Because thats Minecraft, thats the exception not the norm. Sea of Thieves is massively bigger than Minecraft Dungeins and Legends are yet Sea of Thieves isnt on Playstation or Switch

Comparing COD and Minecraft to other properties doesnt work

@Mostlyharmless

But if it was 90% done like this new blizzard game then I think it would almost certainly be multiplat.

I dont… Why would they? You have an opportunity to make a new game thats a new IP that will likely be massive exclusive to your platform, if you look at things pragmatically the better business decision would be to lock it down to your own platform.

[Mostlyharmless]

@Rsebi

I dont… Why would they? You have an opportunity to make a new game thats a new IP that will likely be massive exclusive to your platform, if you look at things pragmatically the better business decision would be to lock it down to your own platform

Well we can disagree on it, no big deal. I prefer for them to lock it down like you’re saying anyway.

[Mostlyharmless]

I didn’t realize till now that the activision side of things is almost entirely COD developers and support studios. Toys for bob make their own games but also support COD… nuts. Guess that’s what it take to pump out a game every year.

If by some chance the deal fails, I sincerely hope Microsoft buys blizzard only from activision. I like cod but i much prefer blizzard, also they could probably get them for idk 5-10 billion.

I don’t think a minority sell like that would go through the same regulatory process. I’m sure Microsoft wants to avoid this going forward. I assume no more public gaming buys in the future.

There’s still a couple good independent developers out there. IO interactive would be at the top of my list. But most of the good ones are probably independent because they want to be.

[Shadowgasm]

@Mostlyharmless

I think you’re right. It depends is probably the best answer. Microsoft makes some huge games exclusive like starfield and others like Minecraft not.

On one knows for sure what going forward will be exclusive and what won’t. Call of duty appears to be multiplat for now since Microsoft has said as much. Everything else it’s unclear.

The other thing to keep in mind is that games like Minecraft and CoD are existing entities with very large player bases across multiple platforms. So, suddenly making those exclusive doesn’t make much sense financially, especially when their goal with a game like Minecraft is to make it a transmedia property (Games, Movies, etc).

I wouldn’t be shocked if everything new ends up exclusive, regardless of how large the game is and what it’s business model is.

[Mostlyharmless]

@Shadowgasm

The other thing to keep in mind is that games like Minecraft and CoD are existing entities with very large player bases across multiple platforms. So, suddenly making those exclusive doesn’t make much sense financially, especially when their goal with a game like Minecraft is to make it a transmedia property (Games, Movies, etc).

I wouldn’t be shocked if everything new ends up exclusive, regardless of how large the game is and what it’s business model is.

What about elder scrolls 6 lol. I think exclusive even though I generally agree with you.

[Kals_Els]

@Mostlyharmless

What about elder scrolls 6 lol. I think exclusive even though I generally agree with you.

It’s a new game in a franchise that doesn’t rely on MP as its main attraction.

[KakkaKarrotKake]

At this point I don’t care about everything being multiplat, I just want this deal done with already

I get all those games on GP regardless so I’m not too fussed but the sooner we get this done the sooner we can move onto to other things

Summary

Sega

[proelitedota (Andrew)]

All it takes is the judge being sympathetic to the FTC to grant them the PI out of “caution”.

[howlingmosquito (mosquito)]

@Rsebi

Zenimax Online is making a new live service game

If its exclusive or multiplatform, this will give us a clear indication of what MS will do with future live service games

All their content will be Xbox exclusive. Call of Duty would - and should - be if it werent legally contentious to make the ABK deal work.

[Mostlyharmless]

@proelitedota

All it takes is the judge being sympathetic to the FTC to grant them the PI out of “caution”.

I agree and that’s why I still think there’s a 25% or so chance the deal gets blocked. 1 sympathetic judge or currupt judge is all it takes.

[Rsebi]

@proelitedota

All it takes is the judge being sympathetic to the FTC to grant them the PI out of “caution”.

When was the last time the FTC won a preliminary injunction because of a sympathetic judge?

Actually while were at it when was the last time the current FTC won a preliminary injunction in general?

Sure it could happen just like a meteor falling MS lawyers could happen

And honestly that sympathy goes both ways, a judge coulr be sympathetic to ABK shareholders who want to cash out and wouldnt get to because a judge tanked a $70B payday due to being “cautious”

[Haven (Victor)]

@proelitedota

All it takes is the judge being sympathetic to the FTC to grant them the PI out of “caution”.

Well one thing is certain. The outcome will determine the future of the deal. MS winning this would mean they close for certain and probably meeting that deadline.