That isn’t consistent with UK law…
They absolutely can block ABK content to the UK if they so choose. Any provider can do that if they want. Netflix etc do it all the time.
The long and short of it is this. One regulator won’t stop MS closing this deal. Whatever it takes and however much punishment the UK has to endure. MS has gone too far with this. The UK isn’t and should not be so powerful as to stop a deal approved everywhere else. Once the EU approved it, MS were always going all in on this. The UK should be punished for isolating itself from the world through things like Brexit and if losing ABK is yet another example of the consequences of it’s colonial influenced isolationistic stupidity, so be it.
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The point is that ABK ringfencing or whatever would still mean MS merging with ABK contravenes the CMA order which is at the current time a breach of law - and the UK would almost certainly levy penalty or try to and there would be a long, potentially years and years legal wrangle. The UK is almost certainly not going to NOT do that even if politically it is sympathetic to MS and Big Tech at a political level because ultimately if they didn’t do that they’d effectively open the floodgates to circumnavigation.
MS may close over the top of the CMA however, one might ask why they if that is their decision and given the CAT appeal is going to require an extension of the end date and potentially the deal more widely why they haven’t already done so if they really intended to? I suspect that its more difficult than people make out with much more risk and thus - the CMA, again playing devil’s advocate for them, have no incentive to do anything right now. Worst case for them they lose at CAT. Which saves them face as they can say they disagree etc…best case for them is MS give up the acquisition or they win at CAT.
There isn’t really an upside for the CMA to doing anything else now. From their perspective.
I know that none of this has to do with it, but I find it curious that they are redesigning the title after 20 years
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I don’t think that applies to merger decisions. Its a different act.
What I’ve learned so far is everyone commenting like they know everything about what CAT can do, does not in fact know everything. Thus I believe we will be surprised with what comes out of the upcoming discussions.
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Agreed.
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I do believe the Mlex report said Microsoft were hiring more lawyers to fight that interim order as well as close over the CMA. I think they want to throw out the order first and then proceed to close. There are probably other things they want to do, and this deal extension is just holding them back. Who knows they might be discussing ways to quash that order with the UK govt.
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We focused alot on the British side of things about this, for good reason of course, but I wonder about our side of the pond. Will the politicians on our side, especially the Republicans (even some democrats), would have something to say about this. Remember, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is watching this very deal right now and are the most influential business lobbyists in congress right now. Their crusade against Lina Khan will inevitably spread into the British side and will get the CMA involve somewhat. If I am the CMA, I would think about that, as it might not be the UK government themselves that would rein them in, but the demands of the US government would.
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The UK doesnt currently have a trade deal with the US. One of the points of contention is the CMAs independence. The US wants assurances for oversight of at the very least US mergers in any trade deal.
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Yup that’s the thing, there is a lack of framework to go by with these things. The UK is seeking a trade agreement though and if they want this to happen, they might have to limit the CMA’s reach to comply with US demands.
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I read it as they hired lawyers to examine implications of closing with interim order in place not to quash it as only route for that is via CAT and then after that court of appeal and that is a long process.
I suspect that they want the message out there they are prepared to close regardless to try and flush out the CMA but do I think it’s likely they do it? I’m not sure at all they will. Maybe. I do think if they are prepared to do that it’s ahead of July 18th.
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I know the CMA voting no was t the plan however it feels everything has gone in MS favour right now.
EC, China, South Korea, CAT (early doors), public, business, media it’s all with MS. Ride the wave let it play out. Talk to Mr Hunt & the CMA keep piling the pressure on & talk with ABK to extend the agreement. Maybe in the hearing on Monday ask if CAT has any idea how early they’d like to formally announce a decision, that way you get an idea of you big an extension. Honestly I’d expect a decision almost after the hearing, September at the latest.
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Mergers are under the enterprise act not competition act afaik.
Next hearings Monday, will find out a lot.
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One thing that hasn’t been mentioned today is Smith’s CMA meeting. I’m assuming it hasn’t happen as no report has been made about (usually anonymous sources close to the dealing) but neither has Smith’s visit with their UK lawyers. My guess is happening between tomorrow and Friday. I think is clear that MS is readying for a decision, whether to make the most attractive offer to the CMA, close and deal with the fallout or drop the entire deal all together. I’m learning towards MS somehow proceeding with the deal just because the amount of PR that has gotten into it.
It was reported that it did happen. Nothing in terms of the content of the neeting was reported.
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That’s the meeting with the finance minister, not the CMA officials.
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(paywalled)
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Wow, I’m sure that article has a slant, but that all sounds crazy.
Honestly, I cant see how its worthwhile to do business in the UK for any big tech.
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