I think that BGS is going to have its hands full for the foreseeable future. Starfield is probably a 2022 game(I think it could be 2021 but that may be wishful thinking). That will make elder scrolls next 2025 or later. Even if they start expanding so they can have 2 teams working concurrently I doubt they can get it out before 2024.
The fallout 76 team will likely stay on that game for years.
Obsidian I could see them wanting another crack at the franchise. But they are knee deep in avowed which probably wonât be out till 2022 or 2023. The outer worlds team COULD do a fallout game but I have my doubts. I think it will entirely depend on the creative leads willingness to work on the IP. So if they choose to do it than ya I could see a AAA fallout by 2025. If they donât want to I doubt we see another big game in the series till 2030.
I just noticed that the two outer worlds Game directors Where heavily involved in fallout. Tim Cain literally created the IP, the other guy was art director for the first game and mastermind behind the second. So them doing a fallout game does seam somewhat likely. Especially if Microsoft has to split profits on a outer worlds 2.
I believe Starfield is late 2021. When they revealed it, I believe at that time they thought it could even be late 2020/early 2021 game. Why? Generally Bethesda puts their next game into pre-production 2 years before the game in full production is targeted to release. Examples:
- Fallout 3 went into pre-production in 2004 when Oblivion was in full production. Oblivion released in 2006.
- Skyrim went into pre-production in 2006 while Fallout 3 was in full production. Fallout 3 released in 2008.
- Fallout 4 went into pre-production in 2009 while Skyrim was in full production. Skyrim released in 2011.
- Starfield went into pre-production in 2013 while Fallout 4 was in full production. Fallout 4 released in 2015.
- So that leads us to our current circumstance. TES VI went into pre-production in 2018. That shouldâve put Starfield at 2020.
The logic here is that Bethesda has a team start to prep their next game when they believe theyâre 2 years away from launching the current game in full production. That gives the smaller pre-production team 2 years to get the bones ready. Itâs been clockwork since 2004 and they have the same man leading the studio. No reason to believe the intent changed. When they revealed the game in 2018, it was already known they were working on a new engine so itâs not as if that would have anything to do with Starfieldâs release date at that particular time. What changed was covid.
So bet on Starfield being a star of E3 2021 (or whatever takes itâs place) and releasing in the fall. Todd likes to wait to show their games when itâs only months before launch.
My prediction for the Western RPG roadmap:
- 2021 - Starfield
- 2022 - Avowed
- 2023 - Fable
- 2024 - InXileâs AAA project
- 2025 - TES VI
One big open world Western RPG a year starting a year from now.
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