I don’t think they will buy any publishers not until the ftc is changed.
People at othercera thinking MS can’t acquire any publisher because they got ABK
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All discussions about ABK take place because of its size or COD games. Microsoft is still very far from a monopoly, the regulators agree on this point, and the concessions made settle the fears linked to the cloud market. Of course, didn’t expect them to acquire EA or Take Two, but I think small publishers are always possible.
CDPR is too small to be a cause for concern, Microsoft can defend the acquisition of Capcom by its very weak position in the Japanese market, and Warner Bros. Discovery is above all an acquisition aimed at the cinema/streaming sector.
Of course, Capcom + CDPR + WBD is not a premonition and I’m not convinced it’s going to happen. It’s just a combination that I find interesting and that would bring a lot of players to the Xbox ecosystem. It’s just one of many combinations, and I think other combinations can be very exciting too.
If we focus on the publishers in difficulty and the long-time partners, Warner, Ubisoft, Square Enix (rather at Playstation), SEGA and Paradox are undoubtedly the most likely acquisitions in the years to come. Each has its pros and cons, but in the end, I think each acquisition is a wonderful step forward for Xbox.
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I expect Xbox will have one more publisher in them after ABK and will focus on studios and internal growth after that.
At some point we actually do need to be worried about the health of the industry and buying multiple publishers after Zenimax and ABK is definitely a tipping point for me. I also expect every Xbox acquisition after this one to have increased scrutiny after ABK.
That said, I barely consider CDPR a publisher. I also think WB (as a whole) is an option if they choose to go that route. Doubt anyone would focus on the gaming portion of it that comes along for the ride.
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If the FTC has no case against ABK, Then they will certainly have zero case with smaller publishers. I don’t think anyone is thinking MS is going to pick up EA or Take 2. But smaller publishers like Sega/Paradox
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I disagree. if this passes in EU and UK, I think MS can buy almost any publisher with the following exceptions
- Take 2 - GTA would need 10 year deals
- EA - Same with sports games
- Embracer - Not sure
- Nintendo - Nintendo would need to pull out of the hardware market first and become 3rd party
Everyone else is open season. Worse case, the targets #1 game needs a 10 year contract, best case, ALL EXCLUSIVE.
I really can’t talk about other publisher acquisitions until the ABK saga is over. However, I am very much on the independent studios path. One thing that I dont think any big publisher does very well today is creating really creative, unique, and highly innovative games.
I feel there are a number of independent companies that do that really well, though. I hope that Microsoft seizes on that opportunity and buys up several independent studios that do just that. There is an opportunity to really differentiate yourself and gamepass in particular by creating these styles of games. I feel like these are also the type of games that really win over the more hardcore gaming community that is somewhat anti-Xbox right now.
These are also games that can really differentiate gaming services like Gamepass, by offering experiences that dont exist elsewhere.
I’m talking about game companies like the below:
- ThatGameCompany
- Drinkbox Studios
- Hello Games
- Massive Monsters
- Supergiant Games
- Behemoth Games
- Hazelight Studios
- Subset Games
- Might & Delight
Imagine what these studios could make given more resources to let their creative talent work.
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I’m not even the biggest fan of SEGA games, even though I mainly grew up playing on the master system and genesis. But SEGA is probably the most important asset to own for gaming outside of Playstation, Nintendo, and Xbox.
It has legacy, Japanese heritage , PC games, console games, and handheld/mobile games. Sega hits all the missing points.
Outside of this, Microsoft gaming doesn’t need to buy anyone else. They just need to follow the Sony Playstation playbook of Marketing and exclusive deals on big 3rd party deals, which avoids any regulatory approval.
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All ages and children’s titles too. When I frame everything with the “what does Gamepass need?” SEGA truly checks the largest number of boxes.
I do concede that they aren’t as big of a draw for your usual console gamer like Capcom is, but they do everything else.
I’m focused on the all ages/children market because of the fact that Fortnite/FNAF/Roblox are now billion dollar companies because of kids. A huge draw for Disney+ is the treasure trove of kids content.
Gamepass hasn’t hit that level yet due to a lack of kid-friendly content. SEGA could kickstart that. Seeing Sonic (alongside Crash) in all GP promotional material would be huge for this.
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Microsoft still needs to at least acquire a Japanese publisher to complete its publishing branches. Then, Microsoft could possibly make a final acquisition of publishers depending on the opportunities that present themselves in the market. One or two more major acquisitions does not seem unreasonable to me given the ambitions and the strategy put in place. The market will consolidate no matter what and new publishers will arrive to replace the old ones. So ideally, I expect a Japanese publisher and a bonus publisher to join Xbox in the coming years. I think that will be enough and I don’t expect them to go beyond that with publishers.
I agree when it comes to studios, what new publishers are we seeing arriving? Especially that are capable of financing AAA games? Embracer can’t even afford to publish their own AAA games.
A more likely scenario is continued growth of independent studios that rely on a consolidated base of large publishers (EA, Take Two, first party etc) to publish their games.
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Japan, Korea or European based publishers would seem to make the most sense in order to expand. Japan is definitely where they have the least amount of market share and probably the easiest argument to be able to acquire. Several japanese publishers also have significant presence in Europe (Sega for example). However, if they specifically want to build out a European publisher and grow that region, their options are limited. I doubt theyd go for Ubisoft, so that likely leaves Paradox as the remaining target. That one is interesting because it would be probably the hardest for someone like Sony to oppose because they hardly put any games on PS.
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What about Thunderful (aka Image and Form), their steamworld franchise is amazing right now in all the different genres. (the latest being a city builder)
Microsoft’s relationship with Paradox is well know, and I feel like they would be a great fit for Games as a Service entries (Season passes/DLC etc) Also I wanted to Say Paradox most recent showcase was presented by Xbox. I mean at this point almost feels like they are a 2nd party developer for Xbox. I know they have some additional functionality that doesnt exist on Playstation, that exists on Xbox (like a mod launcher)
Asia is where I’d say they need to focus mainly South Korea and Japan. Korea has been exploding with ideas and talent as of late and with visuals improving their style of games look closer to their movies which is a big win. Sega definitely has legacy and Sonic, but it seems a former shell of itself. Also, I think it would be a feat for Xbox to actually get Sega to sell, chances are they would still remain a multiplat publisher. Perhaps if they could persuade Sega by letting them develop a new Game Gear for current gen. That thing is actually about the size of a series S. I think they are good with publishers in the west it would be best to just sign partnerships like the Riot games kind to ensure steady flow of content on Gamepass. Warner Bros Discovery would be a good one, they could even do a joint acquisition with paramount for it.
This is a great question and probably warrants a discussion of its own (probably in its own thread). I mentioned a few companies that have become billion dollar brands (I was wrong about FNAF, Minecraft was the better example) and none moved to publishing other than Epic now allowing for self-publishing. Obviously, none of those self-published titles are AAA. As you’ve mentioned, Embracer Group hasn’t moved on to become this sort of publisher.
Factor in how engines like UE5 are allowing smaller teams to create titles that look AAA budget and it all spells a changing industry. Acquisitions and mergers are seemingly a part of that change.
With publishers like Square being extra picky about projects and rushing titles to generate revenue, their capability to fund AAA is reduced. Which makes them possibly ripe for a purchase?
After Capcom struck gold with Monster Hunter, I don’t see them looking for outside funding for the next SF. Which makes me think that publishers that haven’t found their cash cow are the ones ripe for purchases. Their IP can generate revenue for subscription services.
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Maybe not acquire but get timed exclusivity on the witcher remake and other cdpr projects. If you are gonna be blocked from the biggest jrpg games, you should try and block them from the biggest wrpg games.
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The difference there is that Final Fantasy sells pretty poorly on Xbox (based on what few sales numbers we have) so it’s relatively inexpensive for Sony to pay for Square to cut out the smaller platform (especially on games that sell well but not exactly huge numbers). Timed exclusivity on CDPR games would be a very very different ball park and would be hugely expensive for Xbox, I think the only way we’d see this happen is under an acquisition.
Plus Microsoft already has a pretty strong line up of WRPGs at this point.
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Yeah, Witcher 3 had done over 10.8 million copies on Playstation alone. That moneyhat would be cost prohibitive
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With how well The Witcher sells, in a way it would be cheaper to just buy CDPR and if MS has that opportunity I don’t see why they wouldn’t acquire them, plus you get more into the Polish market too.
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