The Switch recently became only the third system in history to cross 150 million units sold. The two systems ahead of it on the all time rankings are the Nintendo DS and the PS2.
The Nintendo DS is at 154 million units sold and change; it is guaranteed to be toppled by the Switch within the next few months, at worst by this Holiday season. However, the PS2 is at 160 million units sold, a 10 million unit lead over the current Switch.
As of right now, the Switch is selling about 9-11 million units per calendar year (as of December 31, 2024). That pace was already decreasing as the Switch grew older, and rumblings of a successor grew, but with the Switch 2 officially announced, and Nintendo’s support for the Switch winding down (at least in terms of big movers), that pace is presumably going to decline even further.
Now, even the 3DS managed to sell 10 million units after Nintendo released the Switch; and the 3DS was a lot less healthy as a platform, with a lot less momentum on its side, than the Switch ever was or remains. So it theoretically shouldn’t be difficult for the Switch to catch up to the PS2 - particularly since Nintendo still has several cards, such as an official price drop, aggressive bundling, or even new revisions, still left to play. On the other hand, it is possible Nintendo chooses to shift internal manufacturing resources as much towards the Switch 2 as possible – we already know there are reports of Nintendo wanting to have very high levels of Switch 2 stock from the get go. In that case, it is possible Switch 1 supply gets strangled, and that inadvertently cuts off its legs (something similar happened with the PS4 and PS5).
So: when, if ever, do you expect the Switch 1 to cross 160 million units sold and become the best selling platform in history?
- By the end of 2025
- Around the middle of 2026
- By the end of 2026
- Around the middle of 2027
- By the end of 2027
- 2028 or later
- Never