Video Game Market Analysis Thread

EU regulations about open marketplaces could end consoles sooner than your hope for Xbox, just saying.

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Yeah, when we mostly get only seven of them on this planet too.

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The closest thing we have is CESA White Paper, but many publishers are not opted into this and the data is very flawed (Xbox Series is completely illogical, PS5 and Switch are definitely higher than that.)

Famitsu data is ultimately only worthless for Xbox because all the releases are digital only. For PS and Switch the physical Famitsu charts are still a very good way to gauge how well a game is doing in Japan, itā€™s still a very big physical market there, none of this 90% digital stuff.

Weā€™ve at least had some JP companies comment on their personal digital ratios and sometimes they are not as high as you think. Falcom gave out theirs at a shareholder meeting:

Q What is the sales ratio between the packaged version and the DL version on the PlayStation these days? Are all packaged versions and downloads included in product sales?

Kondo: Itā€™s a rough estimate, but the DL ratio is less than 20%, and our company has more packaged versions. DL version and DLC are included in the sales of the license division

Andrew House said that PlayStation is able to use their console instal base as leverage. A comment he made early in the PS4 cycle. PlayStationā€™s market share has grown exponentially since. To the point where PS is breaking records and XBOX is registering big declines while only in their second year of the current console cycle. Thatā€™s actually unheard of unless you go back to 2013.

Yes Microsoft has the biggest coffers in gaming. But they also have this niggling annoyance called shareholders. The cost of negotiating a marketing deal for XBOX has to include the loss in sales that comes with aligning with XBOX to begin with. If thereā€™s one thing weā€™ve come to know as fact is that there is a gargantuan difference between Microsoftā€™s PR and the numbers they have to legally submit during negotiations.

Publisher: We got this new game what can you as a platform bring to the table.

Microsoft: Weā€™re declining in console sales. Our stats show gamepass will hurt your release and later sales. Cloud is dismissed by our consumers and weā€™re only selling well in one country.

Sony: We have a presence in every market. 30% of our current console instal base came from other platforms. We just broke another console sales and profit record and our projections for next Qā€¦

Publisher:

dicaprio-leonardo-dicaprio

Pay close attention to Kotick. After all that shit talking, once he realized that deal wont go through, heā€™s crying publicly on tv that Sony wont return his phone calls. Like some jilted ex leaving 46 calls per hour. does anyone legitimately think Kotick is trying to market the next COD on a console that sells well in two territories. Or a platform with a global presence?

Wow, you are so right. I have seen the truth now. How have I not been able to see what is right in front of me. Thank you my friend. Sony always wins.

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In 2021 MS grew their share of the console market and Sonyā€™s declined.

I think you probably need to take a broader view - weā€™ve seen the CMAā€™s work on market share both UK and global and its nowhere near as far apart as people make out. You also factor in the deal Xbox wants is about gamepass and also PC - so it would cost considerably more than anything Sony wants, regardless of sales.

The bottom line is MS could easily negotiate the COD marketing deal IF they wanted to. It would not be that much more expensive than for Sony if Xbox wanted just the marketing deal - (its not an exclusivity deal) - BUT they donā€™t want that. They would want something different that would be a very different sort of deal.

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Love the point he makes in the 2nd half of the video.

XSX not being available may not be pushing folks to the Series S, itā€™s pushing them towards the PS5.

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People who want Playstation 5ā€™s will buy them.

Sounds like people who claimed the Series S only saw success because there were no PS5s available.

I disagree. Thereā€™s an enormous part of the consumer market that isnā€™t caught up in all of that.

If theyā€™re going in the store with the intent to buy a $500 console, theyā€™re leaving the store with one. Whether itā€™s the PS5 or XSX.

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Someone at Microsoft probably thought sacrificing the Series X for the S would be a good idea, clearly it wasnā€™t and it shows how out of touch they are, most people this early on arenā€™t looking for the best deal but the best system and the PS5 is the one widely available while the Series X is way harder to get, Xbox needs new leadership because this current leadership just canā€™t stop taking Ls.

First half I agree with you but 2nd half of your post ? Cmon now lol. Thatā€™s an overreaction.

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What Microsoft needs to do is stop sending or heavily reduce the amount of XSX for Xcloud, I get they want to have an edge when 30 years from now, the people in charge of the infrastructure finally make it so good enough that they can have a like a billion subscribers playing through the cloud. But right now thatā€™s not the best experience for playing games, even in cities, as not everyone that lives in a city is close enough to a server to make it good.

I think itā€™s probably a bad idea to not be able to supply the NA market for Xbox. Series S is a cute little console, but noone will choose that over a PS5 if the price isnā€™t an issue, thereā€™s no loyalties and you want to get into current gen.

I think the Series S has its own target audiences, but competing with the PS5 is not one of them.

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Well I mean there is a current situation being played out right now, where looking a bit weak in one area might pay dividendsā€¦

Haha yeah I guess there might be something to that. Good point.

Iā€™m wondering if MS is holding back to build up some inventory for a (after ABK?) Starfield release.

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Wouldnā€™t you want it to be in peopleā€™s hands before the games arrive though? The longer they wait, the more chances Sony has to convert those gamers over imo.

Yet id rather have a potato in charge than that dufus Jimbo ryan. Ms have to deal with a lot more shit compared to sony. Sony get an entire continent to give them a pass.

I do agree ms needs to make more x and position s differently.

Starfield will sell a shit ton of series x consoles. A lot of consumers are dumb and will try snd buy starfield for ps5 then realise they need xbox. So yeah ms need to hold back for launch period. Otherwise youd get more people trying to get an x and not being abke to find one to play starfield.