Video Game Market Analysis Thread

[GamepadX]

@Vivir

I think it’s pretty bold to assume a new IP that isn’t on every platform will perform like a legacy IP in Elder Scrolls lol.

I’ll just be content with Starfield being a very popular game, anything else is a cherry on the top haha.

It will be a popular game to mod. Even the PC crowd is tired of modding Skyrim at this point. Starfield is a guaranteed success.

[Cyclonesweep]

@TheLegendaryGamer

The 50 milion number i mention is including PC not just console. Longevity is more on PC that is correct, On console not as much cause of fewer Mods support. It still has legs on console though.

Starfield won’t be a game that die out quickly, it will be played for this entire Gen and into next Gen. It will get many release like Skyrim, If the only game a gamer want to play is Starfield it is better to buy the game than just continue to sub to gamepass while only playing 1 or 2 game.

I believe Starfield is the next mega seller game 30-50 million copies within 5-10 years.

Oh I know, but 50 million in 5 months? Nah.

I’m sure it will do well but I see it much more like Fallout than Skyrim really. Fantasy out performs sci-fi. Especially near future kind of sci-fi.

[ShinMegamiTenseiX]

@Mort

Same here. I also think they have exclusive content? PS5 is default for that game here.

Plenty of people will buy on xbox. Especially when series s is an option.

[TheLegendaryGamer]

@Cyclonesweep

Oh I know, but 50 million in 5 months? Nah.

I’m sure it will do well but I see it much more like Fallout than Skyrim really. Fantasy out performs sci-fi. Especially near future kind of sci-fi.

50 million players in 5 months is way doable actually. Example, let say 20 million of them are gamepass players? that leave like 30 million from Steam and other places so yes 50 mill players in 5 months is doable for a game of this magnitude.

I believe all of the Fallout and Elder Scrolls players are gone to flock to Starfield. All of the space game lover like Star Citizen etc… players are gone to flock to Starfield too. Since they been waiting forever for a truly epic space game RPG.

I know i sound crazy, i truly believe Starfield is the next mega hit in gaming. They need to hit it out the park though, if they do that? sky is the limit for Starfield.

[Dr.M.Slug]

@Cyclonesweep

Europe loves PC gaming. With Xbox games coming out on PC there is literally no reason to buy a console for most Europeans.

I think a lot of US xbox fans fail to understand this. PC is huge in Europe. I have always been either xbox or PC since the first xbox but now that every xbox game (as well as many Sony exclusives) are one PC, I fail to see the point of buying a Series box outside of having a prefernce in way to play. While I dont have much on an interst in Sony games, I do prefer strategy games, management games and CRPG, so of course PC will be the prefered way to play. But most I know, or know of, either plays on PC or Playstation (with the former being prefered among adults) and I am not only talking about so called ‘gamers’.

This goes back to the 80s and 90s, even then playing gsmes on computers was often more common than playing on consoles (I am using the contrxt of Sweden as an example).

[Vonterribad (Matt)]

@Dr.M.Slug

I think a lot of US xbox fans fail to understand this. PC is huge in Europe. I have always been either xbox or PC since the first xbox but now that every xbox game (as well as many Sony exclusives) are one PC, I fail to see the point of buying a Series box outside of having a prefernce in way to play.

Im a former PC gamer only (series s this gen), it is just better to have cross save progression and a cohesive ecosystem if you play on both. Which became a factor with WFH, need to get off my PC essentially when im on it all day.

Sony is moving towards PC also, so that factor might change for me if and when Sony has a ststem in place.

[Cyclonesweep]

@TheLegendaryGamer

50 million players in 5 months is way doable actually. Example, let say 20 million of them are gamepass players? that leave like 30 million from Steam and other places so yes 50 mill players in 5 months is doable for a game of this magnitude.

I believe all of the Fallout and Elder Scrolls players are gone to flock to Starfield. All of the space game lover like Star Citizen etc… players are gone to flock to Starfield too. Since they been waiting forever for a truly epic space game RPG.

I know i sound crazy, i truly believe Starfield is the next mega hit in gaming. They need to hit it out the park though, if they do that? sky is the limit for Starfield.

It’s absolutely not way doable It took Skyrim 5 years to hit 30 mill sold. You are expecting it to be the fastest selling title in gaming history by an incredible margin? I think it’s going to be a massive title but I definitely think you are massive overestimating the hype and potential.

[Proven]

@Cyclonesweep

It’s absolutely not way doable It took Skyrim 5 years to hit 30 mill sold. You are expecting it to be the fastest selling title in gaming history by an incredible margin? I think it’s going to be a massive title but I definitely think you are massive overestimating the hype and potential.

Fallout 4 sold 12 million copies in 24 hours

[Cyclonesweep]

@Proven

Fallout 4 sold 12 million copies in 24 hours

Games like that often sell a lot its first day/weekend and then massively slow down.

[BadNews]

I think we need to temper our expectations for Starfield sales numbers. It will sell lower than other Bethesda titles due to being on gamepass and not on multiple consoles

[Cairnst (Bill Cairns)]

I think some time ago Phil spencer said his goal for Starfield was to have more people play it than Skyrim. That’s a tough ask but I think it’s do-able. Of course, that is very specifically “more people playing it” and not “more people buying it”, and considering Skyrim took a decade to reach 30 million sales I’m not expecting Starfield to do it overnight either. 30 million players in a decade? That seems do-able to me. Assuming it’s y’know, good and all.

[Proven]

@BadNews

I think we need to temper our expectations for Starfield sales numbers. It will sell lower than other Bethesda titles due to being on gamepass and not on multiple consoles

Idc about sales its about players counts

[Kals_Els]

@Cairnst

I think some time ago Phil spencer said his goal for Starfield was to have more people play it than Skyrim. That’s a tough ask but I think it’s do-able. Of course, that is very specifically “more people playing it” and not “more people buying it”, and considering Skyrim took a decade to reach 30 million sales I’m not expecting Starfield to do it overnight either. 30 million players in a decade? That seems do-able to me. Assuming it’s y’know, good and all.

I mean Forza Horizon 5 has had over 20 million players, and many people still dismiss it because it’s a racing game.

[Vivir]

@Cairnst

I think some time ago Phil spencer said his goal for Starfield was to have more people play it than Skyrim. That’s a tough ask but I think it’s do-able. Of course, that is very specifically “more people playing it” and not “more people buying it”, and considering Skyrim took a decade to reach 30 million sales I’m not expecting Starfield to do it overnight either. 30 million players in a decade? That seems do-able to me. Assuming it’s y’know, good and all.

I don’t think anyone doubts that it’ll be the most played Bethesda game, we’re just solely talking about sales.

[Cairnst (Bill Cairns)]

@Kals_Els

I mean Forza Horizon 5 has had over 20 million players, and many people still dismiss it because it’s a racing game.

Yeah Xbox already has multiple games hitting 20+ million in playercounts, granted these are cross-gen games but with time, across console pc and mobile I think they’ll top Skyrim in player numbers.

[Kals_Els]

@Cairnst

Yeah Xbox already has multiple games hitting 20+ million in playercounts, granted these are cross-gen games but with time, across console pc and mobile I think they’ll top Skyrim in player numbers.

We also have to consider that while Starfield will be current gen only, people on Xbox 1/PC(low end)/Mobile with a good enough connection will be able to stream the game to their device. Allowing it to be in the same number of potential gamers as cross gen games, the one thing that Microsoft has to do though to keep that momentum going is make sure to have a Starfield bundle ready for launch, along with a special edition console.

[Hue]

@TheLegendaryGamer

50 million players in 5 months is way doable actually. Example, let say 20 million of them are gamepass players? that leave like 30 million from Steam and other places so yes 50 mill players in 5 months is doable for a game of this magnitude.

I believe all of the Fallout and Elder Scrolls players are gone to flock to Starfield. All of the space game lover like Star Citizen etc… players are gone to flock to Starfield too. Since they been waiting forever for a truly epic space game RPG.

I know i sound crazy, i truly believe Starfield is the next mega hit in gaming. They need to hit it out the park though, if they do that? sky is the limit for Starfield.

Perhaps 5 years but not 5 months. Not every GamePass customer will play it and it will be missing a large potential audience on PS.

If the same quality as Skyrim it has potential to surpass it but it will take a long time. I guess it will also depend on if GamePass grows and if Xbox sales start to do better.

[TheLegendaryGamer]

@Proven

Fallout 4 sold 12 million copies in 24 hours

Fallout 4 has got to be at 20-30 million plus now. It weird how Bethesda don’t report sales figure anymore.

@Cyclonesweep

It’s absolutely not way doable It took Skyrim 5 years to hit 30 mill sold. You are expecting it to be the fastest selling title in gaming history by an incredible margin? I think it’s going to be a massive title but I definitely think you are massive overestimating the hype and potential.

Actually even if Starfield do 50 million players in 5 months. It players count not total sales.

To answer the question. No, it would not be the fastest selling game, that would still be GTA 5. I’m talking about players count.

@Cairnst

I think some time ago Phil spencer said his goal for Starfield was to have more people play it than Skyrim. That’s a tough ask but I think it’s do-able. Of course, that is very specifically “more people playing it” and not “more people buying it”, and considering Skyrim took a decade to reach 30 million sales I’m not expecting Starfield to do it overnight either. 30 million players in a decade? That seems do-able to me. Assuming it’s y’know, good and all.

That decade number for Skyrim sales is wrong though. The last reported sales of Skyrim is 30 million copies sold way back in 2016. Since then they have re-release Skyrim with Anniversary edition for example. So from 2016-2023… which is 7 years you are saying they sold zero copies of Skyrim? it took them from 2011-2016 to sold 30 million that 5 years for 30 million. Do the math, Skyrim is still charting and is still mention. The true sales figure for Skyrim is probably 50 plus million if we are being honest. It same with Fallout 4, it’s true sales figure is probably 20-30 million plus.

[Cairnst (Bill Cairns)]

@TheLegendaryGamer

That decade number for Skyrim sales is wrong though. The last reported sales of Skyrim is 30 million copies sold way back in 2016. Since then they have re-release Skyrim with Anniversary edition for example. So from 2016-2023… which is 7 years yo are saying they sold zero copies of Skyrim? it took them from 2011-2016 to sold 30 million that 5 years for 30 million. Do the math, Skyrim is still charting and is still mention. The true sales figure for Skyrim is probably 50 plus million if we are being honest. It same with Fallout 4, it’s true sales figure is probably 20-30 million plus.

I was just going off the top of my head, i didn’t realise my number was quite so out of date though , so they’ve got 5 years to top 30 million in player count and then some unknown number beyond that. I think they can manage the 30, we’ll see beyond that.

[TheLegendaryGamer]

@Cairnst

I was just going off the top of my head :p, so they’ve got 5 years to top 30 million in player count and then some unknown number beyond that. I think they can manage the 30, we’ll see beyond that.

Yeah, that Skyrim 30 million number has been used online in discussion a lot but, that number is from 2016, Skyrim sold 20 million in 2014. Those are the only 2 numbers that we have. Since then it been total silence. if it was selling that fast then, it has to be over 50 million now.

For Starfield to come close to that? it has to be a master piece of a game 90 plus critics reviews and awesome gameplay and word of mouth from the gamer. I think the PC crowd can off-set the fact that Starfield is not on PS5. PC gaming has grew a lot over the last 10 years. Starfield well sell way more on PC than Xbox.