Based on my skimming of that, it makes a lot of sense why MS would feel pressure to keep making CoD multiplat. Their main arguments rely on points that would be rather questionable for the ABK deal if CoD was made exclusive. Thanks for the info btw!
1 Like
Damn son, there it is!
They rely on input from other publishers in the industry plus market analysts. That part you quoted is holding true still btw (Doom DLC, Quake, Skyrim AE, Ghostwire, Deathloop, ESO content, F76 content, possibly Indiana Jonesā¦). And brand loyalty isnāt immaterial. It looks like part of MSās argument there was that even gamers who already have a PSX system would keep it and still engage with it even if they got Xbox for Zenimax games. Seems pretty fair point to make imho. It is real interesting seeing the back n forth on the various points raised there.
That isnāt Hoeg talking, itās Travis from IGN. When Hoeg replies to that scenario he says the FTC wonāt like it and it would not go down well for MS to put that argument forward.
No, Iām referring to something Hoeg said
1 Like
At what times stamp? Certainly not 50:50ā¦at that time stamp Hoeg is finishing an unrelated thought about how MS will try to frame market shares and then Travis starts talking about something else. Namely, when Travis brings up the notion that PSX can get these games via GP on their platform Hoeg responds saying āthat is the specific thing the FTC would be most concerned about so if they do that thatās not gonna go wellā, which makes sense since leveraging the ABK deal and control over these IPās as a cudgel to force Sony to put GP on their platform is exactly the sort of anti-competitive behavior that the FTC is looking for.
Yeah just doulbe checked it basically the 5-10 seconds leading up to 50:50 lol, oops
Where he talks about Microsoft saying āLook at what Amazon is doing, have oyu seen Google and search?ā
2 Likes
After reading this document I even more sure that Call of Duty mainline will be exclusive because Warzone will stay on Playstation.
4 Likes
Gimme a sec and Iāll check that outā¦
EDIT: Ok so all he is saying there is offering a sorta caricature of MSās lobbying effort wrt the FTC imposing a consent decree. Travis then launches into his theory that MS has āoutsā they can use as loopholes which is when Hoeg shuts that line of thinking down.
CoD mainline being exclusive directly undermines most of the arguments they are making to the EU in that documentā¦
Some of you guys need to relax, as there is no point in going in circles. Want to know why?
CoD is confirmed to come to PlayStation at least until 2024. That is according to Smith confirming the contractual agreements end then. This means that the potential exclusive CoD wonāt release until 2025 at the earliest.
But waitā¦
By that time, Microsoft would be knee deep in fixing the toxic culture at ABK and, going by Philās own comments, allowing studios to pitch things they want to do and have creative freedom for the first time in decades. CoD might very well be going to the rumored 2-year dev cycle ala Assassinās Creed, with Warzone 2 supplimenting lost income.
That means holiday 2026 is highly likely the first chance at an exclusive CoD. Itās freakinā February 2022 right now. Thats 4.5~ years away. Do any of you remember where Xbox was at 4-5 years agoā¦? In case you needed a reminder of just how long that time is, there you go.
Me, personally? I have faith in Phil to continue what he has been doing and keep guiding Xbox into greatness. Thereās never been a better time to be an Xbox fan, so I donāt understsnd the bickering.
I do kinda get that some people are upset because Sony has tried to bury Xbox forever now; they were going for the jugular early this gen (after seeing Xbox revive from the dead and gain momentum) with wanting full Final Fantasy exclutivity, the Bethesda and KoTOR moneyhats (and almost Starfield, phewā¦), the 2 year moneyhats where they are paying money solely to keep games away from Xbox gamers, and rumored things like going after BioShock, etc. I get it, trust me, I do. But now Microsoft holds all the cards and like I said, Iām going to trust Phil here. This is bigger than that.
Relax, yāall!
12 Likes
4 Likes
Ms want to get deal over the line asap.
Once its done. Sure. Keep cod on ps. But make 1 cod every 2 years. Not a big deal. The idea that every blizzard activision game will come to ps is fantasy land and people are delusional believing it. Ms willl say anything right now.
It also depends what sony do. If they continue to be a bitch then ms will take it away. Theres nothing sony can do. Good leverage for ms.
The FTC will very likely force MS to sign a consent decree. Going back on that isnāt a fight for Sony, it means the FTC would sue MS to shutter the whole deal retroactively. You donāt play games with the FTC, especially right now.
I already can imagine
Microsoft must provide Sony with Call of Duty single player campaign every year (if it is WW related they can keep it). If Treyarch, Raven, Infinity Ward, Toys for Bob etc. does not want to work on COD anymore, then Microsoft do apology tours with Captain Price portraits to Sony headquarters every leap year.
1 Like
Thanks for sharing this - It will be interesting to see how the report compares to the one for MS-ABK.
2 Likes
By 2026 MS could be in a position where they need to keep launching COD on PS. When the console drought ends in 2023 and Spider-Man 2 is releasedā¦
Oooooooh interesting, so they let MS do whatever they wanted and MS made those games exclusive.
Then I dont know why people believe MS wont do anything for the xbox playerbase, its obvious exclusivity will depend on the game. I even think ips like crash and spyro can be exclusive.
Random thought on the difficulty of defining markets and the lack of transparency in the video game industry: I spent several hours this afternoon gathering data on the Activision acquisition and the video game industry for an academic case study Iām writing. I was primarily using Bloomberg - which is the premiere financial services data provider in the world - to grab the data.
- I found estimates for the size of the video game industry ranging from about $100 billion up to about $250 billion.
- Some lists of market participants included Apple and Google, while others did not.
- I found four different estimates for Tencentās gaming revenue in 2020 ranging from about $17 billion to $29 billion.
In short, trying to get accurate data for this industry is a bit frustrating.
There are several factors at work here:
- There are many ways to define the industry: console only, console + PC, console + PC + mobile.
- We can also define the industry by upstream only (game producers), downstream only (storefronts), or a combination.
- We can also define the industry in terms of software only or software + hardware.
- We have major players in the industry that are privately held and donāt report data publicly (Valve, Epic, etc.)
- We have major players in the industry that are huge tech firms and donāt report video game data separately or completely (Apple, Google, Tencent, etc.).
Iām not sure what the take-away of all that is other than regulators and market participants can define the industry in whatever way most fits the argument they want to make at the time.
6 Likes
It really depends how Microsoft will tackle them. Like some old remaster will probably be multiplatform but anything new will be exclusive. Like new Crash game will be exclusive - why would you make it multiplatform? What would you achieve with that?
I recommend to walk through the document that DeoGame put in this topic. It is very enlightening and they discuss the markets there too. And now the markets are bigger and even become seamless with mobile which makes them even bigger in scope.
2 Likes
Link or DM me, sounds like a good read