So after looking through past cases, this case pretty much lives or dies with EC’s approval. Besides the time factor, EC decision coming after CMA decision was the right choice for MS and EC to take. Had EC gone first, the EC remedies wouldn’t likely have been enough / applicable for the CMA. However because the CMA released the final report first, they’ve shown their hands, so MS and EC can draft something that comprehensively addressed the CMA’s concerns, within technical and legal feasibility. It helps if the EC explains why anything extra such as mandatory linux support isn’t rational. If the EC passes with remedies, then the CAT must remit. No questions ask as it’s new evidence that can potentially change the decision. I expect MS to make their appeal after the EC’s decision, so as to include the remedies as new evidence for remittal. CMA would read the appeal and most likely volunteer for a remittal. If the remedies comprehensively address the CMA’s concerns within reason, there is a chance of a successful clearance in remittal, since MS would get the second try much better prepared. So asking the EC to delay their decision till after the CMA’s was the work of a law firm that knows how to tango with the CMA.
None of us are lawyers I even recall Hoeg saying international law isn’t set or in real existence and so it seems to be just built on a case by case. I think the commitment of both parties is what matters most as I think it’s what will determine victory at the end of the day. EC decision can at least be challenged the issue is time and can and will Microsoft just close following the timer and settle all the court issues after.
None of this makes sense. MS offered up remedies that were inline with what they would offer the EU already. Whether the EU blocks or approves is of very little consequence to the CMA.
The only grounds for an appeal are procedural issues, illegality or irrationality. The EU remedies which will be broadly similar to those already offered and rejected are pretty irrelevant now.
EC remedies are binding in a way that MS’s proposals to the CMA for remedies are not. CAT can reverse decisions based on incorrect conclusion on evidence, improper application of evidence or failure to consider key evidence, as long as they determine that the outcome in a SLC was materially effected by the CMA’s mistake.
In this case, EC remedies would be new evidence that can materially affect MS’s situation, as the behavioral remedies might be a possible mitigation of SLCs, hedges against foreclosure incentives or they introduce significant RCBs.
EC remedies would be an automatic remittal should the CAT determine that the decision for this merger was materially impacted without the EC remedies.
That’s fair enough and a good point. I would say, though, that I think that falls under a hail mary play with slim odds of actually being viable. We will see, though.
The CMA have evaluated the remedies and concluded that they do not mitigate the SLC.
The CAT COULD in theory overrule that but it would need to be on a point of law. And the CAT almost always defer remedy assessment to the CMA.
The EU accepting remedies doesn’t change any of that. The CMA don’t believe the remedies are effective against their SLC, the EU think its sufficient to deal with the theory of harm…that’s not relevant because the CAT review this under UK law. Any remedy that was agreed with the CMA would become ‘binding’ regardless of the EU’s eventual decision. But no remedy could be agreed.
I think MS will make arguments about the SLC and about the rejection of their remedy for sure. But its a question not of that but of what legal strength they can find for their arguments. As we can see quasi-merit based arguments are essentially always thrown out.
The UK Supreme Court overturned the CMA last year. So ultimately even the CAT ruling might not stick.
No matter any armchair “legal analysis” in this thread, this is just wait and see mode on the EU decision. I firmly believe that an approval there provides a reasonable path for the UK to be on an island for this deal to be pushed through in some fashion. A disapproval by the EU likely means that Microsoft punts on it at that point.
I personally believe that if the EC blocks the deal falls apart. However if they approve I see xbox leaving the UK to pass the deal.
Yes fuck Playground, Rare, Ninja Theory etc. Also Xbox relies on the UK market, it’s the second biggest market for Xbox and pretty much every other european country couldn’t care less about Xbox.
Essentially, EU decision is basically make or break. It’s Wrestlemania 40 in a sense, since 39 (CMA) ending left on a downer note.
Xbox aren’t a legal entity. They can’t leave the UK. The entity that would need to leave the UK market in its entirety would be Microsoft and ABK.
It. Isn’t. Happening.
They will if they need to close. This deal is incredibly important to them since MS entire business is acquiring companies and has become the case every company is following to see what their M&A plans are. Also UK is only 7% of Xbox revenue compared to over 50% in the US. Yes they are important since its they 2nd largest, but they will be fine without the UK.
Well said.
It’s highly unlikely Microsoft would take this nuclear option. However, I doubt a few studios in the UK would stop them if that was the option they decided on. All they would need to do is move the studios outside of the UK, relocate willing staff and those who don’t want to move can work remotely.
My company did just this to avoid high cost of doing business in New York. We moved our New York location to Ottawa, Canada and most of our New York staff now work remotely.
Another way of looking at it is, let’s say Microsoft did get full clearance from the CMA, EC, FTC and SAMR to close their deal, but Canada decided to go rogue against the deal. Would Microsoft pull out of the deal or would they pull out of Canada? Would Microsoft shutdown The Coalition, Compulsion, Beenox, and whatever support studios in the country?
Mods, any thought about freezing the thread for a bit, because unless there is breaking news, I can’t see the value of people chewing the same fat for the next few weeks, until the EU decision?
The mods haven’t frozen the thread for the entire year this has been ongoing, I don’t see why they would do that now. In fact, we probably have more information now then we ever had for the first 6-8 months of the deal being announced.
Also, with all due respect, you don’t have to partake in the thread if it doesn’t interest you.
Yeah, but I also don’t get the value of people endlessly discussing that Microsoft should ringfence the UK/no they can’t/CAT will overturn CMA/CAT doesn’t have the power etc. etc. and not coming up with anything remotely new. At least with a temporary freeze people can take a breath and step back for a moment.
If they freeze it it’ll drip over into the other threads, best to just let people run wild in here so I can avoid it lol
That’s the sort of discussion that has been going on for months. Deal is deal, no it’s not, COD will be exclusive, no it won’t, Microsoft would never offer it for PS Plus, yes they will, etc.
The reality is nobody, regardless of their background or expertise knows what the near two trillion dollar company is or isn’t willing to do. All we can do is speculate, which is all we have been doing from the beginning.
Plus while we are at it, we may as well freeze the Xbox Games Studios thread since we won’t have anything new until June. We may also just go ahead and freeze the acquisitions thread too since nothing is likely to happen until this ABK deal is officially cleared/dead.