Metro, Dailymail and the Sun are all trash and shouldn’t be used for anything.
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Well said. I do however think the ABK deal will still pass. If the EC and the rest approve, I don’t see how the UK block will hold. It will have to do for just UK. I think either like Foss said they get a motion to close while still appealing or they will ring fence the UK. There is also no assurance Activision won’t drop out was the deadline is reached. I don’t think the appeal is realistic unless they can accelerate it.
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They can’t close without the UK unless they renegotiate the deal since UK approval is required currently. And in real world terms can’t close without it because their fines will be huge and they will trash their credibility forever. It’s just not an option.
The bottom line to all this is that MS need to find a way longer term to appease international regulators…they haven’t even managed to get those in their home country onside. The regulatory environment is not their friend right now and they have to find a way to shift that. It won’t happen through brute force or threats it needs a different approach.
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They are looking for work arounds. That said, this deal has caused some serious waves across the gaming landscape entirely. Probably won’t see the results for a bit, but things will change - hopefully for the better!
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Brad Smith mentioned Microsoft’s role in protecting the UK against cyber attacks. They have leverage.
I know it’s trendy for people to dismiss Microsoft’s complaints as ‘toothless’ but I really don’t think it’s quite so simple.
And it’s not like brute forcing a problem is necessarily a bad thing. Not when the deal is so huge & the corporation involved is so big.
What’s more important to Britain? Microsoft? Or the head of the CMA & Sunak? The latter can be easily replaced & he isn’t even popular anyway (he wasn’t elected either).
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They’ve got leverage but need to understand the wider politics. A uk government that is seen to stand up to a ‘bully in MS’ would be a good look for the government. So putting that position would be bad for MS.
What’s not going to happen is the government would sweep in and intervene. Need to play the long game behind the scenes out of the limelight to build some relationships. Then they can start to maybe find ways government will be prepared to exert regulatory pressure on future deals.
See, a lot of people here (in the UK) would say Sunak. Even the Guardian (my favourite paper) told MS where to stick it and stop moaning about the CMA. For some people here, this is a Brexit Victory against Big Bad US Tech.
As I’ve said before, MS leaving the UK is simply not going to happen, and no-one here is going to take threats from MS seriously.
As a Xbox gamer, GeForce Now cloud gamer and MS shareholder, I suspect this deal is toast. The CMA are spinning up a Digitial Markets Unit soon in order to take on Big Tech, so future mergers etc are going to get a lot harder for Big Tech to approve, both here and given the reach the CMA has, globally.
like I said they will ringfence it. Yes, they can renegotiate but if ringfencing is possible then they can go that route and it won’t incur fines or impugn their image. I believe foss also gave 3 other options. If the EC and China approve it will be fine regardless if the UK still goes rogue.
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I’ve got it.
- Renegotiate with ABK to close the deal without CMA approval.
- Figure out what fees would be charged for doing so (10B per year?)
- Increase UKs CyberSecurity contract by the same price plus £1GBP.
- If the UK complains say it was decided by the KMA (kiss my ass) an independant consultant who decided the UKs cyber securities could lead to a rise of terminators and squid like sentinals.
- Alternatively they can “opt in” to the discount plan…
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Who knows what renegotiation would be like. Activision might want more money. However, I do agree they have to figure out a way to remove CMA from any of their deals going forward. I do wonder if Activision sinks back if Microsoft abandons. There is a good chance all of this goodwill is because of the acquisition.
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They can’t ringfence it. The CMA approval is required to operate in that market full stop without regulatory fines. It’s not possible to just say ‘the merger will only apply in rest of the world’ because there is no legal basis for that. If they merge they have to have a remedy accepted by the CMA in order for Ms to trade in the U.K. without penalty.
Thats such a thoughtful post . If the EU and USA pass the deal , Im sure the CMA will know its needs a rethink .
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They absolutely can try. Also how do you know they can’t ringfence it. Many lawyers are saying there is a chance it could be something they take without having to pull out of the UK. Ringfencing is also a legal thing and is in no way what you’re suggesting.
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I agree 100% that if China, USA, and EU… (not to mention the rest of the world) all approve the deal then Xbox will simply give U.K. a ring fence (is that a new term ? Lol) like what Pachtner and others have suggested.
I feel bad for U.K. gamers though. UK has been great for Xbox, so it will be weird for them to not benefit from day1 Activision games on Gamepass. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but U.K. is way over playing thier hand here.
Florian Mueller on Twitter: “This merger (Illumina-Grail) was simply closed between two U.S. companies without overseas approval. They said they’d abide by any U.S. court ruling but played hardball with overseas competition watchdogs. They set aside money to pay any expected fines. https://t.co/tpHPA67V3H” / Twitter Foss just posted this and who knows maybe Microsoft could do thesame .
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UK investments gonna take a nose dive over the next decade then
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Illumina completes Grail acquisition, regulators be damned | Fierce Biotech The thing is Microsoft has always been the one to play by the rules but the others don’t. would have loved this to be Amazon as I think they might have just damned the consequences.
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With PS5 breaking records, soon they’ll be at over 2:1 market share over Xbox again and only this time they will also have far better USA market share, it will get worse than last gen for Xbox’s console market share for sure and while this deal wasn’t going to suddenly change that it would have for sure made Xbox more competitive with PlayStation in the foreseeable future, there is no need to sugarcoat it, this is a huge blow for Xbox and there is just nothing that can replicate owning ABK out there, Redfall and Starfield won’t move the needle if we’re being honest to pull the numbers they really need and who’s gonna get the COD marketing deal in 2 years? Will ABK even remember this whole shitshow from Sony or will they just look at their market share and hand them over the deal just based on that?
I think I know the answer based on how these capitalist companies operate, any “grudge” will disappear when they run the numbers and I don’t know if Microsoft will be smart enough to make sure PS brand loses COD association based on how they do things these days, I don’t blame Microsoft for trying, ABK was too good to pass up, reality was on their side and they couldn’t have predicted that regulators would change the game to using “possible outcomes” instead of facts, without any ramifications if they turn out to be wrong at that too, console market also won’t get regulated and anticompetitive deals by the market leader are perfectly fine, probably because in these regulators eyes they’re not big tech.
But I have to assume that if it was Microsoft dominating the market and moneyhatting games left and right from distant 3rd participants that they would do something about it…
Hope this isn’t considered doom posting, but I just don’t see how Xbox recovers in time from this, they’ll be better than last gen in terms of revenue most likely and they’ll have more games than last gen which is good but realistically will it be enough? It’s not like a cultural behemoth like Elder Scrolls or Fallout is coming any time soon.
What a shame that Microsoft didn’t go all during the early years of the last administration, they could’ve bought a lot without much scrutiny back then and be set for the future.
It only passes in the US if Microsoft wins against the FTC in court, so right now we know two of the big regulators are against it, no idea on what the EU will decide yet so even they might be against it and they’ve been real quiet so it’s hard to say, I only remember an ex EU regulator saying they were trying to protect his PlayStation, but as of right now assuming the EU and China approve it and Microsoft wins in court against the FTC then that would leave only the CMA as the outlier, but their views won’t be changed even if the deal is approved everywhere else, hell they would likely see the FTC losing in court as the regulatory system in the US being too weak so realistically Microsoft’s only option in the UK is appealing through CAT and hope that they manage to make the CMA reverse their decision, I think it’s still unlikely and will take too much time.
I also have no idea if stopping cloud gaming support in the UK would even work, they seem to preach that they’re only concerned about the UK while also wanting to play world regulator.
But I’m sure there’s a way to get it done, it likely will just take far too much time and money, at the very least if things don’t work out Microsoft should 100% make ABK a close marketing partner, make deals to release their games on Xcloud with buy to play.
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As long as this merger is going on Sony can’t negotiate for Call of Duty marketing, its a conflict of interest for ABK and their suitor. Otherwise Sony would just overpay for 20 years and their silly little XP multiplier deals, which doesnt gel with Microsofts parity.
Its up in 2024. Microsoft will either own ABK by then or have a $65B rebate to outbid Sony (which you’d want in case MS makes another play for ABK later on, that way Sony can’t claim losing the marketing hurts their business)
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It’s the year 2025, Xbox has completed its long contentious purchase of publisher Activision. The month is June and Xbox gives thier big gaming press conference to announce new games. The new Callof Duty game looks amazing and the Gamepass logo brings huge cheers from the crowd. Most people barely even noticed the small asterisk text at the bottom that reads “Activision Gamepass titles not available in UK territories”.
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