Microsoft-Activision-Blizzard Discussion Thread |OT3| - Sony bends the knee!

I don’t get the logic that Microsoft has to fight the ruling even if they know they are going to lose.

All they can do is struggle and cost the CMA money if losing is inevitable. The CMA isn’t a business, doesn’t have shareholders and the people who work at it don’t get paid based on cost savings. Frankly, I doubt the CMA gives a damn how expensive or time consuming Microsoft makes an appeal.

Government regulators have nothing but time and money, there’s no disincentive that Microsoft provides by appealing. So I don’t see why they’d bother unless they think they have a chance of winning.

Not sure whether Microsoft thinks they have a slam dunk chance on appeal, a snowballs chance in hell or somewhere in-between. From my perspective if they decided to appeal its because whatever chance they have of winning is worth it to them to spend the cash and time. Because Microsoft isn’t the government and do have to justify to shareholders why they are doing something.

I figure Microsoft will start the appeal process now and if the EU allows it to pass they’ll fight the CMA using whatever arguments worked for the EU. If the EU denies it they’ll reevaluate again and only continue if they see a credible path forward with the CMA and EU, which seems a lot less likely to me.

On the Brad Smith comments people are being hyperbolic and needlessly sensitive. Businesses, industry groups, regulators and governments criticize each other (and praise each other for that matter) all the time. Trying to pass of Smith’s comments as particularly unique and an example of Big Tech being out of control is just silly. No one was freaking out when Jim Ryan called the CMA irrational for dropping the console SLC, at least not the UK government and national publications like The Guardian. Why? Because it wasn’t even news, it was expected, a matter of common course. Why did Smith get such an immediate and aggressive reaction? Because he touched a nerve. In 2023 the UK is a shell of its former self with most of its international clout coming from an Empire that hasn’t existed in any practical sense for nearly 80 years. The UK almost regardless of political persuasion see themselves as a world power when realistically, outside of a preferential EU position they gave up, a nuclear arsenal and a UN seat they only secured with an empire that no longer exists they are a middle power at best. Smith said the quiet bit out loud and that upset people.

I think people saying this acquisition is why or part of the reason Microsoft isn’t delivering the quantity or quality of games expected consistently are scapegoating. Microsoft basically shutdown Xbox first party. Disassembled most of it, overproduced and mismanaged what was left. They started reinvesting in 2018 but it takes big established studios time to release even sequels. Sony released God of War in 2018 and followed it up in 2022. 4 years for an established studio to make a simple sequel. Microsoft was never going to buy studios like Obsidian, let them finish supporting current projects, scale them up, produce a new AAA IP and score a direct hit in 4-5 years. Even where they acquired bigger studios they all had projects to finish and support and some of them, like Playground are trying to do a franchise revival in a new to them genre. If MGS releasing multiple well received AAA titles a year, consistently, year over year matters to you I doubt we’ll even see it until near the end of the current generation.

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This 20/20 hind sight is ridiculous.

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“Just do more so this undesirable outcome doesn’t happen” has to be the weirdest take. Public criticism can be risky, political lobbying only gets you so far and talking it out only works if the individuals you talk to are capable of or want to understand.

If someone on this forum has the natural skill to be able to easily foresee the ideal path to get politically contentious 70 billion dollar global mergers done they are in the wrong line of work.

It’s not even hindsight which might actually have some analytical validity it’s just “they should have just done the thing better” which is hardly useful. “Microsoft should have convinced the CMA” like shit I bet they didn’t think of that let alone try!

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Microsoft has money. They have more money now than they did before this purchase was announced.

ABK has little to lose by extending the timeline. MS can offer a $5B break up fee to extend another year …ABK will either get $5B or $69B. So why not fight for the $69B?

If MS doesnt fight this then it doesnt matter, any regulator can start speculating and inventing future scenarious without proof or evidence where an entity buying an innocuous asset becomes a monopoly.

All regulators have a “court” option…because theres always a chance the regulators got it wrong or blocked a deal for illegitimate reasons.

Nothing wrong with a second opinion right? If your cause is just and honorable, reviewing it a second time under appeal won’t matter.

If the CMA had a proper appeals process, this reasoning would be sketchy at best and thrown out at worst.

If the CMA had an option to litigate it in court, no-one would be down or sad right now. They would put the CMA in the pile with the FTC and wish them luck on another losing case.

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I think you’re misunderstanding me. I think Microsoft is pursuing an appeal because they think they can win. You’ve outlined at least some of the reasons they likely think that.

What I dispute is the idea that Microsoft has to fight the ruling even if their legal teams sees NO way for them to win. Which seems to be an oddly popular take. If they were guaranteed a loss on appeal there wouldn’t be a reason to appeal. The CMA isn’t a court, there is no precedent at play and making them expend money and time isn’t a punishment to a bureaucracy because they aren’t accountable for either.

So from my perspective Microsoft will only fight if they see a chance of winning with the benefits of fighting outweighing the cost. I don’t believe they’d fight just for the hell of it.

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Microsoft 100% believes they can win. I don’t buy the CMAs decision nor any of the silly claims they’ve made since September and theres no reason to think they or their lawyers would.

This deal won’t fail because MS buying ABK is illegal or monopolistic. If it fails, it will be because the CMA are morons and there isn’t a good appeals process.

The FTC could make the same argument as the CMA and it would be laughed out of court.

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I’m not sure exactly how the “break up fee” is structured but I would imagine it applies if ABK still wants to fight and MS wants to stop, basically it is an agreement to exhaust all avenues. I don’t know if the break up fee applies if the deal is broken up due to regulators and both ABK and MS choose not to pursue the deal further.

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@howlingmosquito your opinions have been on point :peace_symbol:

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Glad I’m still not watching no podcast about this s*** and send me y’all on them be so depressing

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Thanks. I am very angry man!

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People said all of these things in real time. If there weren’t 300k messages on the subject Id go pull up my posts where I literally said I thought ABK was too big for them to acquire and get through. I also said they needed to offer cloud remedies for more than buy to play and that they needed to attack the marketshare argument in cloud especially because it was the biggest thing the CMA would use.

Its okay for me now to look back and criticize them for something that even laymen following the process were saying and discussed on the message boards and twitter.

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This is when the discussions about leaving the UK need to seriously happen “until things change”, and I mean that for all large companies. If thats how the UK acts then someone needs to standup. It should be the US and EU but they havent, so its on companies to use their only real power, they can choose not to do business. Microsoft chose not to do business in countries for various reasons before, this is certainly a new reason, but not an unreasonable one to walk away from.

Yes, yes, I get they do a lot of business in the UK. The UK isnt really growing though, and Microsoft does need to be able to continue growing. If an unchecked, rogue regulator kneecaps any hope of continued growth then you DO start to reconsider and perform a cost benefit analysis over the loss of UK business versus growth projections. If one exceed the other in say the next 7 to 10 years, then you go with that decision.

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Still can’t get over how crazy CMA’s decision was. I wonder tho, if MS successfuly appeals at CAT, what CMA will come up with next to block the acquisition. They’ve already decided it wouldn’t lead to SLC in the console space (although a significant chunk of the final report was about how it would be unfair to Sony, lol) and they wouldn’t be able to reuse the cloud argument. My guess is they’d say that with King and COD mobile Microsoft would be poised to rule on the market of 3rd party mobile stores, making it unfair to Amazon, Epic and even Apple and Google.

Hopefully lawyers win the fight for MS against CMA and FTC, but in the meantime MS should start expanding elsewhere. Start acquiring individual studios again that don’t require regulators’ approval. Let’s hope that XGS and Bethesda prove in June they have been very busy creating games in the background…

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They would be able to use the cloud SLC. CAT remittal is on limited grounds. It’s highly unlikely they throw out an SLC. Look at past remittals and they don’t change much.

We’ll see what happens. CMA’s justification has been very flimsy. If Microsoft has up to 5000 simultaneous users after 3 years of launching xcloud, Microsoft might successfully argue that cloud cannot be considered a separate market.

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The CMA investigate any deal where the business being acquired has a turnover in the U.K. of £70M OR the combined businesses have a 25% share or more of any market in the U.K.

Individual studios would then presumably still need a CMA investigation on the basis MS have 25% of markets as defined by CMA.

Yeah…I think MS need to exert huge political pressure not because they will be able to save this deal but to ensure that the CMA can’t just block any future deal regardless of size.

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Sony was able to acquire like 8 developments studios within the past 3 years, including Bungie, despite having 70% of the high performance console market (as defined by CMA), without triggering multiphase investigations. If they started blocking MS from buying eg. Asobo, IOI, CD Project Red or similar, you would know CMA’s motivations lie elsewhere than protecting competition or consumers.

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