Microsoft-Activision-Blizzard Discussion Thread |OT3| - Sony bends the knee!

[AllianceOfficer]

@EPC

That is quite easy considering the reason they block is the enormous size of the cloud market in 10 years. Based on such vague principles, they can assume that all UK people will be harmed.

The CMA failed to provide a value for the size of the market in 10 years. Theyd need to quantify it to justify it and back it up with evidence. Again, CAT reviews substance in penalties and fines cases.

[Zappy5]

@leburn98

This wasn’t an American analyst. City AM is London, UK based.

The author is in Washington DC

[LeeLayfield (Lee)]

@howlingmosquito

I’ve read conflicting info. Wikipedia says they were founded in Sweden and their HQ is in Malta!

Ah right maybe not then.

[Swanlee]

@Zappy5

Lots of American analysts are saying this. Even Fosspatents has said he doesn’t believe this is an option.

American analysts who all do not understand the way regulation works in the U.K.

We get it, you think nothing is an option and nothing will ever happen. Might as well just close the thread huh?

[Zappy5]

@proelitedota

Of course the CMA can take action. I just don’t see what kind of action can they take that will hold up in court. CMA will sue to stop MS and ABK from merging in the UK? That’s already not happening.

The market share test would fail because MS and ABK will not be merging in the UK. MS+ABK will not conduct business in the UK as a single entity.

If Microsoft break the CMA prohibition and merge with ABK then the CMA can levy fines of up to 10% (or 5%) their global turnover.

Because MS would still be trading in the U.K. and still subject to regulation. And there is currently a complete prohibition on them acquiring ABK or even investing in them.

CMA have that power and I’m not sure how MS would appeal such a fine but it would be incredibly messy.

[EPC]

@Zappy5

The author is in Washington DC

Yes, Beaten This is just an opinion article from a US person

https://twitter.com/rachelhchiu?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

She even cites Mueller (Fosspatents) as an expert. This is just a twitter Echo Chamber.

[Zappy5]

@Swanlee

We get it, you think nothing is an option and nothing will ever happen. Might as well just close the thread huh?

I think the way forward is via CAT get the case remitted back to the CMA and in the meantime get pressure piled onto the CMA via the political route,

That’s the play. It just takes time and relies on them renegotiating the end date in the deal.

They could close over the CMA - of course it’s possible but it would be an incredibly risky play for Microsoft who aren’t prone to that sort of thing and the fallout would be very difficult to predict.

The last week shows that the CMA aren’t backing down without being forced to via probably the CAT and political pressure as a pincer movement.

There is a reasonable chance of success there now I’d say but it’s just a question of how much patience exists in MS and ABK.

[proelitedota (Andrew)]

@Zappy5

If Microsoft break the CMA prohibition and merge with ABK then the CMA can levy fines of up to 10% (or 5%) their global turnover.

Because MS would still be trading in the U.K. and still subject to regulation. And there is currently a complete prohibition on them acquiring ABK or even investing in them.

CMA have that power and I’m not sure how MS would appeal such a fine but it would be incredibly messy.

The thing is Microsoft didn’t break CMA prohibition by merging with ABK in UK and thus they won’t operate in the UK as a combined entity.

From a legal pov, MS has every right to operate as MS and ABK in the EEA. MS UK branch will operate as a subsidiary without ABK in the UK.

CMA has every right to file an injunction or fines but I’m not sure what can the UK courts do to enforce the fines as MS didn’t break UK laws.

[Shadowgasm]

@Zappy5

If Microsoft break the CMA prohibition and merge with ABK then the CMA can levy fines of up to 10% (or 5%) their global turnover.

Because MS would still be trading in the U.K. and still subject to regulation. And there is currently a complete prohibition on them acquiring ABK or even investing in them.

CMA have that power and I’m not sure how MS would appeal such a fine but it would be incredibly messy.

[Zappy5]

@proelitedota

The thing is Microsoft didn’t break CMA prohibition by merging with ABK in UK and thus they won’t operate in the UK as a combined entity.

From a legal pov, MS has every right to operate as MS and ABK in the EEA.

The prohibition is on MS and ABK as complete entities. Because that’s what they’ve been asked to review. The CMA haven’t said ‘you can merge just not in the U.K. ‘ because that’s not possible and also not the review.

So it doesn’t matter what carve out happens any merger would be prohibited still.

MS could offer a carve out as a behavioural remedy to the CMA but I’m not convinced it would be successful.

[AllianceOfficer]

@Zappy5

If Microsoft break the CMA prohibition and merge with ABK then the CMA can levy fines of up to 10% (or 5%) their global turnover.

Because MS would still be trading in the U.K. and still subject to regulation. And there is currently a complete prohibition on them acquiring ABK or even investing in them.

CMA have that power and I’m not sure how MS would appeal such a fine but it would be incredibly messy.

The chants of Closed for Business would rain down from every corporation in the world if the CMA did that. Theyd effectively kill investment entirely in the UK for as long as the CMA stayed indepedent.

[EPC]

@AllianceOfficer

The chants of Closed for Business would rain down from every corporation in the world if the CMA did that. Theyd effectively kill investment entirely in the UK for as long as the CMA stayed indepedent.

That is much likely

[AllianceOfficer]

@EPC

That is much likely, but I think UK prefers to sink alone than accept it is wrong. Their strong mind is the reason they survive during WW2, it can also have bad sides

I suppose. And in such a scenario I do think we get into the Microsoft in response pulling out of the UK fully including canceling government contracts territory.

Itd be messy if the CMA is so pigheaded.

I still believe I outlined the most likely scenario above. They do a complete pressure campaign in the UK that ramps up public and political pressure to unheard of levels and inform FTC closing is imminent.

[EPC]

I have absolutely no idea on how UK will end up.

[proelitedota (Andrew)]

@Zappy5

The prohibition is on MS and ABK as complete entities. Because that’s what they’ve been asked to review. The CMA haven’t said ‘you can merge just not in the U.K. ‘ because that’s not possible and also not the review.

Prohibition is on MS and ABK operating as a combined entity in the UK.

UK laws doesn’t have jurisdiction over what happens outside of UK.

We’re in legal theory territory, but a strict reading of the law allows for this. From a common sense perspective, it makes sense to me and should so to a judge.

If MS doesn’t operate with ABK in the UK, and only does in the rest of the world where it gets approval.

Imagine what the PR would be if CMA sues to stop MS serving ABK games to EU cloud providers and customers. It’ll essentially be CMA + FTC + Sony vs everyone else. And that everyone else includes the UK government and court.

[howlingmosquito (mosquito)]

@EPC

I have absolutely no idea on how UK will end up.

Looking like a bunch of idiots.

Even if they changed their minds tomorrow, they still look like a regulatory body that does bad math and can’t get the date right.

[Haven (Victor)]

@howlingmosquito

Looking like a bunch of idiots.

Even if they changed their minds tomorrow, they still look like a regulatory body that does bad math and can’t get the date right.

No doubt.

[KirthGersen]

They’re gonna close the deal in July, I can feel it lol

[ParkerPetrov]

@proelitedota

Prohibition is on MS and ABK operating as a combined entity in the UK.

UK laws doesn’t have jurisdiction over what happens outside of UK.

We’re in legal theory territory, but a strict reading of the law allows for this. From a common sense perspective, it makes sense to me and should so to a judge.

If MS doesn’t operate with ABK in the UK, and only does in the rest of the world where it gets approval.

Imagine what the PR would be if CMA sues to stop MS serving ABK games to EU cloud providers and customers. It’ll essentially be CMA + FTC + Sony vs everyone else. And that everyone else includes the UK government and court.

It wouldn’t be even be the CMA +ftc as at that point. As in this hypothetical scenario the FTC would have to file its injunction in federal court to stop the merger and then the ftc would just lose their meritless case. As the majority of lawyers and legal analysts, legal professors have said their isn’t enough substance to stand up in federal court. So it would just be the CMA standing alone.

[Haven (Victor)]

The reality to me is the CMA’s intention was to block the deal globally not just in the UK. They were hoping the EU would follow suit and together with the FTC it would stick but that has now failed catastrophically. The idea that they would just now relegate their block to the UK doesn’t seem sound to me since they have already failed to achieve their goal. I imagine with all the pressure now they are looking at ways to remedy this through their final report. Microsoft’s and Activision’s lawyers are probably in contact with them or will be to try to settle things and to also give an excerpt of what’s to come if they don’t settle. I don’t see any point in Sarah Cardell jeopardizing her career for the young FTC chair. This might just get settled without an appeal.