If they made a catastrophic decision they’d be checked or written out of existence.
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The thing is if MS were willing to close over the top of them and call their bluff (I don’t believe they ever would but lets pretend) they can do so IIRC after 22nd May. So there isn’t any point them waiting round if that is their tactic they can do it before needing an extension.
But I just cannot see it because they will need regulator support worldwide in the future and would have none in that scenario.
Unfortunately I don’t have it but I heard it on booms show yesterday. The excerpt is below https://youtu.be/sqi8Mn-r1no?t=3852 She supposedly amended her post to remove FTC chair Lina khan. She has also indicated to the parliament that she did not have waivers for the FTC.
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You’re right in that the CMA is gambling here and hoping for that outcome.
You’re right in the sense that the CMA “thinks” this is a win-win for them. However reality doesn’t seem to be lining up with the CMA’s world view here.
Microsoft didn’t back down and came to the negotiating table. The CMA imagined their block as having more importance than it actually does. At the end of the day Microsoft through negotiation and politicking has gotten this deal through every country except the UK. Now the CMA has put themselves into a definite lose situation. The CMA / UK appears unwilling to negotiate deals with businesses that come to the table, they appear isolated against the will of the rest of the world, and finally when Microsoft pulls Activision games from Gamepass only in the UK the cma will appear weak and feckless as the only power they truly have is to hurt UK gamers.
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The longer this case drags on the more evidence Microsoft will have that they are keeping their contractual promises. Adding Gears 5 and this month another 4 games to GeForce Now dies provide evidence and stake for Microsoft upholding contracts.
If this gets referred back to the CMA, there is more evidence for Microsoft to submit.
This combines with other competitors growing in cloud gaming like GeForce Now, Sony and Amazon. The data the CMA compiled previously was based on weird spans of time and this should help provide smooth full year analysis at least.
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Regardless for what the naysayers are trying to push MS does have other options to get around the CMA, while I’m sure they would want a straight approval if they end up not getting it the deal will still go through even if they have to jump through some legal hoops to do so.
Anyone thinking one single Gov body can stop a multi national merger with no recourse or workaround that is already approved by almost everyone else is just being silly and just does not want the deal to go through.
MS is the one company that can out wait and out spend what is needed to push this across while smaller companies may have given up due to time and costs with fighting it which is really what the CMA wants.
If MS does not backout it will go through one way or another.
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Well said. I would imagine UK leaders are discussing with Microsoft on the best method to solve this CMA headache. I believe Microsoft wants to and expects to close this deal by the agreed date. Once the appeal is filed it will become clearer if they need to renegotiate an extension. The way I see it all this CMA tough act will amount to nothing. After this will the UK govt even be thinking of giving more powers to the CMA?
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If the right people are in charge that are accepting of behavioural remedies then the CMAs independence can act to negotiate economic benefits for the UK. They just have the wrong person in charge at the CMA to do what they want.
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Can I Pepe Silvia for a moment?
I think Lina Khan convinced the CMA that a block would be best for both agencies. It would make them look like heroes for stopping big tech, but it backfired.
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I mean we’ve both seen the steering document. It basically said that the CMA should use their independence for the economic benefit of the UK.
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Hey she tried! However business demands will beat that! Today with Xbox announcing putting Gears 5 in Nvidia cloud and other Xbox and Bethesda titles next week the FTC and CMA look like clowns
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I mean they should but absolute power corrupts absolutely. I’m just spitballing here.
Holy absolutes Batman, there’s a lot I’ve seen and held my tongue on over the last few days but can you, for once, not live in hyperbole and absolutes in this thread? Saying an organization “would have none”, in regards to “support” from regulators, because a company would take action to circumvent/exit one regulator’s market (especially when said regulator has essentially been snubbed by its functional peers), is frankly absurd.
I’m not ruling out any possibilities because I’ve done so in the past (especially about whether an org like ABK would have even been on MS’ radar for acquisition) and I’ve learned to stop making absolutes and declaratives around matters like this, especially given the uncharted nature of this deal. I think, gauging by the community’s remarks, you’d be wise to do the same.
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Yea sorry Zappy5 but every forum that has a thread on this subject has a person trying to be an expert and beating the drum this will not go through. None of them including Zappy know for sure.
This entire deal is not only unique in structure and size but unique in timing and unique in regulations. You cannot draw any conclusions based on past aquisitions.
Common sense though would tell you IF MS gets 99.99 % of global regulating bodies to approve the deal they will find away around 1 or 2 reguIating bodies trying to block it.
MS is one of the companies that has enough money and resources to out battle any regulating body in the way. They also have facts on their side since the CMA keeps screwing up their math to base their decisions on.
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Close the deal. CMA will say “we will fine you billions” Microsoft will say thats more than the UK economy is worth, we will leave instead, enjoy having no cyber security or computer infrastructure. UK government overrules CMA, like they should be doing already.
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https://twitter.com/XboxWire/status/1659182563360116736?t=0nH6iNZtEGrQHRfmCkfEOQ&s=19
This is the first in a series of partnerships we’re activating to make our PC games available to players globally through a variety of cloud gaming services, starting with NVIDIA GeForce NOW, and with Boosteroid, Ubitus, EE and Nware in the future. We remain committed to releasing current titles from Xbox Game Studios and Bethesda, and future Activision Blizzard PC games once Microsoft’s acquisition closes."
Following through on their promises before the CAT trial even begins. CMA looking more and more foolish.
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While I want the deal to go through and think it should have been approved, I don’t like the idea of any corporation bullying any country to achieve its goals. We’re already hurtling towards a future where corporations are the ruling class we don’t need to make it even easier.
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But that’s a pretty skewed way of looking at it. I can give you another radically different interpretation: a panel composed by a few civil servants, that in no way were directly elected by voters, is blocking the future business of two foreign companies, without a solid reason backed by the law, in order to gain a power position for their self interest, that is not necessarily aligned with that of the country they are supposed to represent, damaging its economy in the process while not defending consumer interests in any reasonable way. See?
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Well in this case with the CMA being a crazy outlier where the checks and balances are not in place then MS needs to do what it takes to not only get around it but also highlight how ridiculous this situation is.
Hopefully this exposure of the CMA will entail new regulations and a better appeal process.
The concept that 1 out of about 100 different regulating bodies could stop dead a multi national aquisition like this where neither company is even based in is silly and shows the process is broken with how the CMA is structured.
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The checks and balances are in place. That’s why MS is appealing to CAT. Let the process happen before we start yelling for one of the largest corporations in the world to start employing mafia tactics to get their way.