I doubt they will also they are acquiring ABK as a subsidiary, so it stands independent. They could move ABK out of UK, but I think the UK leaders will do something before then.
Interesting point, I dont know the legal basis, but Id assume Playstation (and Steam and Nintendo and Nvidia etc) also would not be able to distribute ABK games in the UK.
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Satya smiling after his recent interview tells me we wonât ever find out I have a feeling that Brad Smith and him are in talks with the UK government and I have feeling they will approve this deal directly behind the CMAs back, all Microsoft has to keep saying and everyone else is THE UK IS CLOSE FOR BUSINESS, it will drive the UK nuts.
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Satya clearly has Plan B but prefer to wait on appeal process before proceeding that plan.
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Through the CMA is the only realistic way to approve this deal. I do think that Sarah Cardel will get a talking to and realize that they are way over their heads in playing with antitrust theories in a global economic setting instead of in the classroom.
The most rational way forward for the CMA to repair their reputation and relationship with the EC is to volunteer for a remittal and use the EC remedies as new evidence that relieves foreclosure concerns in the cloud gaming market.
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[quote=âSparda3g, post:2445, topic:15915â]
Satya clearly has Plan B but prefer to wait on appeal process before proceeding that plan.
Exciting time ahead over the next month. all the showcases plus possibility the ABK thing can close. gonna be fun.
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How certain are we of this? Iâm asking because a) it doesnât seem reasonable, but b) the way the question was asked of Satya Nadella wasnât âwill the company pull out,â it was whether they will stop âselling the product.â Not even products, plural, but singular.
Is that phrasing just some business lingo I donât understand? With âproductâ referring to Microsoft as a company? Cause if not, thatâs a hell of a weird way to phrase the question of whether Microsoft as a whole would consider pulling out of the UK market.
Sony was the biggest opponent against the merger and didnât define cloud gaming as a separate market. How can the CMA define relevant market over the subject matter expert that conduct business in the gaming market.
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I donât think it works like that. Also, ABK is a subsidiary which means it stays independent like Zenimax. They could simply move ABK out which I doubt will happen. Also, if Microsoft moves out what message does that send to the other big tech some of which are already threatening to move like Meta threatening to pull out Whatâs App. Microsoft pulling out would give other big tech an exit to leave and pretty much render the UK regulatory system useless not to mention cripple the economy.
Perhaps the CMA isnât ready or experienced enough to play in the global regulatory space.
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Feeling the same, canât wait to see what happens next with the acquisition + all the showcases. Gaming can be quite fun sometimes hehe
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I do agree with you on this, some of the things the CMA said kind of hints at them going after Microsoft even if they were to make a smaller acquisition, I donât even think the CMA themselves believe in their own verdict that much but they chose this deal to make an example of⌠I imagine that if Microsoft and ABK are willing to fight this long term that they would win but hopefully this doesnât mean Xbox will suffer because of itâŚ
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Some key context here. Viagogo didnât just ringfence Stubhub on their own accord. It was a structural remedy required by the CMA.
Viagogoâs $4bn takeover of StubHub partially blocked | Viagogo | The Guardian
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Because they are scared the merge would happen. They know MS removing only ABK titles from the UK market is a distinct and real possibility, so they prefer to paint it as an all or nothing situation: CMA would force the entire MS business out of the UK. They defend that scenario as the only possibility because everybody know thatâs impossible, thus the deal would be dead. So, thatâs basically the reason.
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Yeah. Quoting stuff from that Twitter account isnât going to provide any accurate information that is worth reviewing.
The problem with the whole âcarve outâ talk is that it doesnât address the prohibition. The CMA have prohibited MS from acquiring ABK or any part of ABK so if they do they are subject to penalties and fines whilst ANY part of MS continue to trade in the market regulates by the CMA. Microsoft being one legal entity means they donât have a route to avoid the regulation.
They could agree a carve out as a remedy with the cma. But it would require an agreement as far as anyone who does this stuff can see because otherwise any merger would still come under the cma jurisdiction to police.
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I say this a a UK citizen, but there is a part of me that really hopes the UK gets crushed under the wheels of the EU as a result of itâs stupid, jingoistic, exceptionalist decision that is Brexit.
The UK is no longer an economic or military powerhouse. What is used to have was a massively disproportionate amount of soft power. Through language, overseas aid, arts and culture and political influence in the EU. The UK has lost both any influence in the EU and has withdrawn totally from overseas aid/development, rendering the country a small, irrelevant backwater, that seems to think it remains at the top table for global decision making.
The UK was Americaâs âguy in the roomâ when it came to the EU. That role has gone and is now being taken up by Ireland. The US is massively courting Ireland ATM and companies formerly in the UK and moving over the Ireland in droves.
Why set up in the UK when you are basically a hemmed in trading block of 70m people? Go to Ireland where it is English speaking and has unfettered trade with hundreds of millions of people.
A stupid decision with inevitable results.
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If what you say is true, and I believe it makes sense, then it basically spells a hellish scenario for any kind of acquisition for everybody in any industry. Cutting long stories short: any acquisition on a 10 billion people global economy can be killed by a local political panel representing a government of 65 million people. Today is the UK, tomorrow it will be Japan or Brazil in whatever sector. It doesnât make sense, I believe there should be a way out of this scenario.
As far as MS appealing to the CTA, I believe they must and they will, but I donât hold any hope. The knee-jerk reaction by the CMA, just minutes after EU approval, clearly shows that this a political decision and the CMA will not back down. Unless the UK government enforces a decision over the CMA the deal is basically dead unless some kind of âcarve outâ solution is possible.
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I think that itâs much less likely a smaller market can kill such a deal. The CMA post Brexit now have power over U.K. market which for most big tech companies will be a critical path to M&Aâs but I mean previously the EU could have chosen to block which would have killed deals too.
The thing is that when this deal was announced everyone pointed to the CMA as a potential issue given how they had publicised their views on mergers like this, their hardline views on behavioural remedies and the like. Everyone was just ignoring that because there was some sort of view that âthey wonât dare block it because MS too powerfulâ but thatâs almost the opposite, it was a perfect chance for them to show their power and their independent thinking which they pride themselves on.
I think MS will agitate to slowly see change in U.K. regulation and wider global regulation too. But that wonât necessarily save the deal.
They have a chance via CAT to overturn it and I think itâs probably now the only way this deal can go forward realistically but we will see. It will be interesting to see what agreement is reached between ABK and MS in July for an extension of the end date - that will be instructive.