MS isnt going to leave the UK and the UK isnt going to force them out. I can see MS closing the deal without the UK. CMA will probably just issue a fine. MS will pay the fine. I think i read MS annual profit in the UK is 170 million. The UK isnt going to fine them more than that as MS would no longer have the incentive to do business in the UK. My prediction is MS pays the fine and they get that money back once the deal is finally approved in 12-18 months
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I dont really think there would be global backlash for proceeding with a fine or potentially not selling Xbox/ABK in the UK.
Both of those would indeed be playing by the rules that country set aside. It would be complying in an atypical manner, but still complying.
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I can say that this is not just a video game company acquisition, this is the biggest purchase made by Microsoft so far and one of the biggest acquisitions in recent years. Microsoft will do everything legally possible to complete the merger, call it ego, power or just common sense (donât give up something you have reasons to win). If they are not able to close this deal for one regulator, future investments around the globe can be complicated or even impossible.
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Satya said it early on âIf we canât do something easy, then we certainly canât do something hardâ.
This impacts all future strategies for the company.
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I do get the feeling if it does fully get blocked worldwide the CMA would fire up Twitter and be smug with their whole weird ass attitude during this whole deal.
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There will be people who think that having published those tweets shows that they are sure of their decision, but a regulator is not a company to do PR, I would not be surprised if they wanted to take credit for trying to block the deal with erroneous data, what a great example!
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What the MP at around 6.40 minutes asked CMA was probably what happened. The FTC using the CMA the block the deal based on future markets because the same wouldnât stand in US courts where you have to provide evidence in current markets.
Get the feeling these MPs know that Sarah and Lina met to discuss this exactly. Hence the questioning on the frequency of meetings and timing.
To be seen if the UK can correct this decision because watching it you get the feeling the MPs know something is not right, but CMA still thinks they are in the righ and people in these positions normally donât U turn because of their egos.
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Because it would be a big tech firm overriding regulation. It would go nuts.
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Itâs what you expect from Sony, notice how they didnât say anything but the CMA did hmm Sony have gone pretty quiet lately.
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That sort of sounds like Microsoft may start doing cost assessments to see if pulling out of the UK is worth it. I donât think they will at this time even if they canât get the ABK deal done, but if they canât get the precedent that the CMA is trying to pass at least thrown out, I can see Microsoft do so in the future if they keep trying to control their growth.
Itâs still wild to me that all these cloud companies keep saying they want this and this deal helps them but CMA are like nah youâre just naive we donât worry weâll protect you. If Microsoft gives new cloud companies the exact same deal then what is the big fuss.
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Why? Weâve seen this happen with other companies. Weâve seen this with other big tech. Weâve seen big tech pull all the way out of large countries.
Its not some crazy terrifying thing, and most people would merely think âLol Brexitâ. Im not trying to minimize the UK, but we already seeing journalists and commentaors saying that about the CMA. Its definitely been a âWell Brexit happened, how can you expect good decisionsâ.
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Someone decides to post anything positive regarding this deal.
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This might be the dumbest part of all this
Every cloud company bar Google, the company that dropped out and therefore donât deserve an opinion, is for this deal
But the CMA is basically telling them no, we think for you, itâs utter nonsense
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CMA:
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Do you realize thatâs the fear governments have around the world with big tech that their turnover is so enormous they can ignore regulators in paying fines or do business somewhere else because of their global trade in numerous countries? It is not out of the realm for Microsoft to hold the UK market at ransom. The UK joined the EU because the scale of its economy wasnât big enough to leverage global trade with its purchasing power. The EU is determined to flex its muscle on the UK for leaving the EU in making the economy shrink. The EU already stated that if the UK was to ever join the EU again it wonât have the same privileges as before such as having the pound as its currency.
Itâs true but you are asking Microsoft to do itself untold damage reputationally, financially and potentially legally - thatâs the bit that isnât going to happen.
I mean Xbox alone the U.K. is far and away their second biggest market. Itâs the only major market bar the US they are competitive in. You want them to abandon that market to Sony for ever to get a deal through that wonât change their market position significant elsewhereâŚ
I think the thing you are underestimating is the massive fallout that would exist for decades, every deal they wanted to do subject to regulation would have regulators saying âwell they ignored the CMA in the U.K. and just pulled out we donât trust themâ and thatâs the tip of the iceberg.
If itâs a power struggle between big tech and governments over the next two decades why on earth would MS want to become point man for that and take the brunt of itâŚ
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Microsoft is not in a situation right now where theres a winning path unless the appeal succeds. If this falls through because of the CMA looking at future markets and making shit up then their company is massively financially limited. We are talking values in the hundreds of billions if not trillions (in the long run). Showing any weakness in this situation makes them even more of a target for regulators.
A show of resolve while adhering legally to the decision is a plausible path forward and should not generate much controversy.
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Yep, This deal is going to pass or fail regardless of how many posts in many different forums are done. Iâm at the point where I tune out of it unless some news pops up and it has certainly been better for my mental health.
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One of the things Iâve seen people suggest is that the CMA would use the full 10% of worldwide turnover as a fine for not complying. These people are suggesting that Microsoft would be afraid to pull gaming out of the UK and would never do it.
That doesnât make sense to me, because if you are very concerned about risks for one party, it would strike me that you would be concerned about risks for another. A fine of 10+ billion for an incredulous ruling would undoubtedly have business owners withdrawing from a draconian UK that would have cemented âClosed for Businessâ status.
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