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The fact that MS went from guaranteeing COD for 3 years to signing multiple 10 year agreements with cloud providers really ahows how MS was willing to fight tooth and nail for this, how bad they wanted it
There were so many people who thought MS would fold and walk away at the first sign of resistance
Also remember some people stated this would be closed by September last year. Even I didnt believe it would literally take 18 months to close but its coming down to the wire
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I think mostly what I’ve said about the CMA has turned out to be true. In the end they are getting the structural remedy I said probably was the way to do the deal…divesting xcloud…
They weren’t going to be able to backdown without something that preserved their usual resistance to behavioural remedies. Microsoft has chosen to move around the CAT precisely because they must know their chances there aren’t great. I know lots of people think Microsoft could do what they want but all I’ve ever said is the reality is slightly different to that and ultimately I think I’ve ended up right on the U.K. side.
So I’d defend my record there. I have said all along the us stuff is just my scepticism about how the law works there we all know this deal is a good thing for consumers but I just don’t trust it over there, but I mean should this be closed on Monday I will be delighted.
I also think now that it’s hard to see what can stop the deal. Regardless of Monday or not it should happen within the next few months at the latest.
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I think they were always prepared to offer 10. They offered 3/5 as an opening. Sony and Nintendo accept. You did shrewed business and gave up less than was needed.
They fight and offer 10, regulators see you as reasonable. Honorable.
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This is also likely true, start low and give yourself breathing room
Just like when you want something, ask for as much as possible and negotiate
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I agree with everything in Peter’s post. Based on the economics, there is nothing of concern in this acquisition at all.
About 18 months ago, shortly after the acquisition was announced, I posted this:
I stand by everything in that post, though I probably could have phrased a couple of points more clearly. What I completely failed to account for was the amount of politics/ideology/regulatory capture that was going to infect the proceedings.
In a more economically rationale world the regulators would have done their analysis without trying to gerrymander markets or prognosticate what the industry would look like ten or more years down the road - something they have literally zero ability to do - and reached a swift conclusion that there was no problem with the deal. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. But it looks like rationality will win out at the end of the day regardless.
Economically the deal didn’t need any conditions at all. However, I think the EU conditions are actually pretty good and will help the cloud market grow so I don’t really have a problem with them.
As far as the FTC specifically, when its expert came back with a “worst case” scenario that PlayStation might lose 5% market share that should have been the end of its investigation. Economically, who cares if the market leader with 70% global market share loses 5%? It’s a complete non-issue. The amount of intellectual dishonesty required for the FTC to carry on after that point is completely mind blowing. I can’t even process it.
I truly hope we are coming to the end of this long saga over the next few days - and I truly hope some regulators have learned a few lessons from this that will encourage them to behave better in the future.
Edit: This is not an “I was right” post. If you go back and read the linked post you can clearly see I was very wrong about how this played out. I really didn’t think the deal would encounter nearly as much trouble as it has. Rather, this is me saying, “I was wrong, but it looks like everything is still ok.”
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https://twitter.com/insidergamingig/status/1679861768602910721?s=46&t=O_AGT9SEnlptKOF_2SxtqQ
If true and goes exclusive, ooooooh what luck.
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But so far it looks like the only thing they’re divesting is the game stream rights in the UK for ABK games. So Xcloud would still be there they just aren’t going to be the ones making the deals for the UK streaming.
At least this is what I’m getting from all of this.
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Maybe that would be a good result I guess compared to selling their streaming service in the U.K. as has been suggested.
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Divesting the game streaming rights for just the UK seems like such a nothing burger that I’m surprised it would be enough to convince the CMA
Then again, maybe they really are desperate to just get something to make this go away finally
UK CMA’s only SLC was cloud, and if MS no longer has that in the UK, they kind of have to relent.
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Interesting that Microsoft still hasn’t filed their opposition brief yet.
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Feels like so many people are forgetting this. There’s one tiny issue they need to fix.
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Is it done yet??? Jesus.
Lsst week has felt like a year
Be interesting to see if we hear anything this evening UK time
So MS may not even need to file.
It would be great Karma if MS/ABK can run the clock out by not filing until the very last moment if its not today!
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To be fair has any main Starcraft game actually been on console - even if it’s exclusive that just means it’s more widely available than usual 
Isn’t Starcraft HUGE in Korea though? Launching on Xbox, even if it comes after launch, is probably a given once this acquisition closes but so far as Playstation goes maybe looking at what would benefit them best in Korea would be smart (I say not really knowing the market breakdown over there - just a thought)
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Still 12 hours to go over here if not 14 hours when considering west coast.
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https://twitter.com/fosspatents/status/1679873393993170945?s=46&t=t7dDVKaP__8VXQdcGMQghA
More good news.
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There was a starcraft on the N64 iirc. Don’t think it did too hot though. Never even released in europe I believe.
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