Thing is, there is no lack of competition. Even Nintendo has a cloud service they work with.
And COD is irrelevant to cloud same as the rest of activision.
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The argument is that the biggest IPs will be relevant to the cloud gaming market just like they are relevant to console and PC now. And over time if the current number one cloud gaming market player in MS - who have a number of structural advantages here - owns the biggest IP arguably one of at the very least, most popular IPs it makes breaking into that market very very difficult.
Thatâs the position. Again itâs very hard to argue with it we are talking about the future here too not just the present.
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I donât think anyone can truly say CMA has a firm grasp of the video games industry. Even if this deal goes through, theyâve not done anywhere near enough research and concluded poorly in several areas. They had 13 months to do so, they wasted them.
ABK hasnât merged yet so I see no reason why they canât except it might mean restructuring the deal which might be the case if they have to go back to the table for extension. I know the process in the UK doesnât involve going to court, but I do believe a lawyer was saying itâs difficult but possible and expensive. In any case the appeal process should be enough
This deal was never about exclusives anyway
Thatâs one thing I donât like about the report. A lot of âWhat ifâsâ instead of âWhat is.â Now, Iâm sure that falls under the scope of their investigation. But you can use âwhat ifâ to raise a doubt about any aspect of deals like this.
Again, I would be much more comfortable with decisions likes this, if they could be appealed to a 3rd party. And not, rather farcically, have the appeal decided byâŚthe cma!
Dont bother. Zappy loves to write essays about the CMA.
Its pretty obvious they didnt do their job properly and the solutions they provide are not realistic in any way in relation to this industry, in any way. But because this is the same way they work with every company, somehow its the correct way to do it and means theyâre experts in everything they do and investigateâŚ
The CMA has done such a poor job in some investigations, that when they rejected deals, afterwards, they had to be forced to investigate again. And this is public data that you can find. *
*No, this doesnt meant they suddenly approve it cause they were proven wrong. CMA is quite firm in their decision to reject, and fine, most deals and companies.
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It can be appealed, the problem is that after the appeal and consequent new investigation, it goes back to the CMA. Its up to the company if its worth to them to spend money and time, again.
I said a while ago that Sony should have simply asked for a VR COD game to boost their VR. It would have been an exclusive for them to tout. With all said Microsoft could come out tomorrow and walk. My guess is if Microsoft walks, Sony will try to invest in Activision to get a say on the board.
I canât see any scenario at all where Microsoft would walk. In the event the CMA rules against I forsee a lawsuit based on procedural improprities in their work with Sony and failure to disclose key data. They either reach an agreement or this continues for years or ABK chooses to walk at the end of the term.
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But a regulator isnât doing their job if the arenât future facing. The fact is doing that means it becomes much more balance of probability than actual reality. But thatâs their job. If they only worried about now then it would be very easy, but theyâd also effectively be doing nothing useful.
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Same, they will fight this. And I think its not even related to activision anymore. If they get rejected on this, while Sony is allowed to do all the things Microsoft supposedly would do/does, then it means Microsoft will have even a harder time in the future with anything they do.
They are protecting their own brand and bussiness.
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Guess Iâm gonna be the one to say it. Blizzard and king>>activision. Once they have those and renegotiate with a publisher in China they will be making bank again.
Diablo is going to sell a lot. Especially if they could sell it in China. Just poach the devs of the studios for cod.
The thing is who would you even sell the studios and cod to, who would buy them?.
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I think everyone agrees with you in terms of quality but getting the amount of workers/studios Activision has, even without any of the IP, is very important this days( ironic, considering the layoffs)
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If they arenât prepared to offer a remedy the CMA can accept then the only way I think theyâd plough on is if they have found a route with the EU. The CAT process is so odds against a success that in reality I doubt theyâd push that far and I strongly suspect that in that scenario theyâd be struggling to accommodate EU concerns too.
The deal is now in MS hands. They have the concerns and the remedies and they will have been told what it will take. They either want to go there or not.
To succeed via CAT you have to demonstrate that the CMA failed to follow proper process or that they have reached a decision so illogical that no other reasonable person could reach it. The threshold for the latter is so ridiculously high at judicial review level that itâs not happening. The former would be up to MS having evidence that their due process was not followed but again thatâs a big reach given whatâs happened. Even if they won the CMA only have to review the relevant part of their decision and May arrive at the same one anyway. For example if a part of the process was incorrect theyâd only need to decide whether it materially impacted the outcome. In most cases it wouldnât and this is why I donât think there is any chance of CAT significantly changing much.
They can be future facing and still ask more pertinant questions. IMO they should assume the worst case scenario and assume Call of Duty will be Xbox exclusive. What does the market look like in 5 years? In 10?
If Xbox outsells playstation 2:1 by exclusivity of one game. Is that illegal? Didnt appear to be last gen.
What if it outsells it 10:1? If thats substantial lessening of competition why didnt the CMA intervene with the 3DS and Vita or Playstation 4 vs WiiU?
If Gamepass and Xcloud are such juggernauts, why does PSN have more subscribers? If Sony wants to compete better theyâll need to start pricing it lower and adding day 1 releases.
I mean the short answer is Sony will have to invest a lot more money in gaming to compete effectively. That is competition. You push me I push you back.
Which is what Xbox is doing now.
Sony arenât allowed to buy publishers without potential competition issues. MS can do literally everything Sony have including buying Bungie if they wanted to. Nobody is there to stop them. If sony tried to buy ABK theyâd have an even tougher time than MS.
There is nobody on earth stopping MS making exclusive deals with publishers for games or marketing deals or buying studiosâŚanymore than anyone would or is stopping Sony.
Indeed Microsoft should this deal not happen would be in an open market to negotiate a marketing and exclusivity period for COD just like Sony are when the deal is up. Nobody would stop them.
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I donât think Microsoft is going to walk from the deal even if they have to accept some pretty harsh concessions, especially since Microsoft will soon have 3 billion reasons not to walk away from the deal.
My biggest disappointment would be missing out on Toys for Bob, Iâd love to see them and IPs like Crash Bandicoot and Spyro under Microsoft. But thatâs just me personally 
. Still, if it does come down to divesting I hope they can hold on to a small chunk of Activision to get a few choice studios and some IPs.
More practicality though, I guess it just comes down to how much Activision and more specifically Call of Duty is worth? Iâd guess it represents a not insignificant amount of that 68 billion total. Maybe EA? or Amazon perhaps if theyâre finally looking to take gaming seriously. I imagine finding someone interested in buying one of the biggest gaming franchises in the world wonât be TOO hard even if theyâd need to be pretty big from the get go.
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Firstly a regulator isnât managing competition in a general sense. This isnât sport. Itâs managing regulation around mergers, acquisition and IP that could lead to a reduction in competition to the disadvantage of consumers in the market.
If you want to buy ABK you need regulatory approval. And that approval examines the impact of such an acquisition on the market. The CMA believe there will be a lessening of competition in a potential foreclosure of ABK IP. They demonstrate that potential. Do I agree with that for the console market? Not particularly but I think I would if Sony were able to acquire similarly large IP. And I donât think the conclusion is completely wild either.
And then we come to cloud where MS is the market leaderâŚand I do think the conclusions there are fair.
Also competition as per the regulator definition definitely isnât about an arms race to spend and buyâŚcompetition is about playing field open to entrants that encourages multiple offerings for consumers with genuine choice. Your answer of âyeah well to compete Sony just need to spend moreâ is a lessening of competition as per their definitions and exactly the reason they reach a conclusion. Misusing competition is not going to help with regulators like the CMA.
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Been saying this very thing about Gaikai and OnLive for months (check the receipts for those doubting). Itâs not Microsoftâs fault that a competitor literally bought the market a decade prior and refused to do anything with it. It sure as hell isnât regulatorsâ responsibilities to ensure a competitor that refused to capitalize on their market position, and previous acquisitions, remain the sole competitor or market leader⌠period.
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