I dont think its possible to have input foreclosure on a genre. Someone can simply make a new intellectual property, or revive an old one, or adapt a popula franchise to that genre and that could immediately change the landscape for that genre.
It would be very hard to argue that Microsoft buying CDPR prevents other companies from successfully launching rpgs. Heck, there are two massive examples this year of hugely successful wrpgs in Hogwarts Legacy and Baldurs Gate 3 that show that.
But didn’t the EU write up specifically target genres?
I was thinking about this and thought that, say, if MS bought a bunch of tax software companies, that they could have a stranglehold on the market. For sure, anyone else could create their own but having all that expertise, all those users, and actively hunting more tax software companies would raise some eyebrows.
For sure competition would still exist but there’s an undeniably strong position through those acquisitions.
Think of how getting SF5 as an exclusive helped make the PlayStation the only console worth getting for fighters, as other devs followed. Sure, MS got their fair share and had KI as an exclusive, but the damage in reputation was undeniable. I don’t think MS should follow that approach.
Microsoft could enter into a partnership with Konami for Pro Evolution Soccer and have it exclusive and in Gamepass. It needs a bigger budget and licensing rights… FIFA rights are up for sale. Pro Evo trumpted Fifa years ago and a football game that is innovative is needed… EA Sports Football is just a copy and paste now as they know people are addicted to Ultimate Team. They have no tier one rival.
Theres no blocking an acquisition because of genres because theres no way to prove that they would be able to foreclose a genre. The EU merely mentioned they looked at genres and there wasnt a concern here.
For what its worth, even if cases could be made for that, it would be very hard to make a case against rpgs.
Even if for instance they wanted to review genre foreclosure for rpgs in the case of a CDPR acquisition thats still not narrow enough to have any current concentration as JRPGs and MMORGs exist and make a substantial portion of the market.
Even if we look at wrpgs in todays market, we can see Xbox does not have a concentration:
Leading wrpgs 2021: Mass Effect Legendary Edition, Dying Light 2 2022: Horizon Forbidden West, Marvel Midnight Suns, Tiny Tinas Wonderland 2023: Baldurs Gate 3, Diablo 4, Starfield, Hogwarts Legacy, Dead Island 2
This list was difficult even to sort out as thereis ambiguity between genres. For instance, does a game like Assassins Creed now belong in RPGs? This is a challenge to argue in court as they would have to differntiate wrpgs to even have a shot and make the case to a judge when Microsoft could point to other popular games with many mechanics in wrpgs (especially from jrpgs).
Yet we have the ABK situation which the CMA tried so hard with foreclosure. These regulators always spring up nonsense to drag things. Microsoft already has a number of WRPG studios and bringing in a renowned studio/publisher like CDPR could set off alarm bells. We all debated here how the CMA and FTC had no case but still these regulators pushed their agendas and wasted everyone’s time not to mention the added money Microsoft has had to spend on fighting and I’m not sure Microsoft is willing to spend money fighting for studios as small as CDPR. In any case I don’t think Microsoft will pursue CDPR, they’ve made it clear their focus is on Asia.
They have made it clear that doesn’t mean plans can’t change ?they said they want a Japanese studio much before Activision but here we are after Bethesda and activision
Yes plans can change and more subject to the conditions of the industry. ABK was never a target but an opportunity that they had to take. The concentration of their studios in the west is already quite big. The focus should be covering all their bases, their publishers can acquire studios without too much fanfare especially now that studios that don’t sell well could begin to see closures.
Sabotage Studio, which just released Sea of Stars, should be on Microsofts radar. These type of 2drpgs are a niche with a highly dedicated player community. These type of games regularly on xbox/gamepass exclusively would definitely help retain gamepass subscribers.
They are situated downtown Quebec City, I’ve walked several times in front of their offices and never realized it was the makers of The Messenger until a co-worker told me lol
Great little studio for sure, probably wouldn’t be a very expensive venture for MS.
My own personal preference would be the acquire WB games, though I know that won’t happen. Rocksteady, NetherRealm, Monolith, Avalanche, a decently sized mobile division.
Fighting game dev capacity, mobile, 3rd person action games.
Fits gaps they have in their first party capacity.
But I don’t think MS would go so big after ABK. Certainly not until they know ABK works out for them financially and the dust has settled on the regulatory side of things.
Gearbox could be the next Embracer sale
https://x.com/idlesloth84_/status/1701199291312644170?s=46&t=5v4hCnVd4hiA1i1XiZgKag
Borderlands is a perfect gamepass game and they have one coming out next year.
Don’t know how Microsoft would feel about having randy under them though
I don’t think they want Randy and the man has pretty much said he’s not leaving.
If they’re shopping Gearbox, Eidos and Crystal Dynamics are definitely getting shopped as well.
TBF if MS bought them, Randy would have little say in the matter.
I still don’t understand what Embracer was thinking. All that money and they just bought up a bunch of studios that didn’t have much upside and were already struggling to move units. This just seemed like an inevitability.
CD at least seems to be providing some guaranteed income in the form of Xbox and Amazon deals so I could see them not being in a rush to off load them.
Personally, i think that take two could buy gearbox.