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Take Two is the least likely buyout. Especially after the…CEO of Microsoft Gaming…said “no big deals”.
Like…a borderline impossibility.
That is all I have to add to the discussion. Sidenote: Phil doesn’t look great. Could just be the photos, but I hope his health is alright.
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I thought I’d just check @Harlow
Xbox has 5 of the top selling 50 game franchises:
- #2 Call of Duty
- #6 Minecraft
- #33 Halo
- #39 Crash Bandicoot
- #46 Elder Scrolls
Playstation currently has 2:
- #25 Gran Turismo
- #42 God of War
Take-Two has:
- #5 GTA
- #17 NBA 2K
- #23 WWE 2K
- #24 Red Dead
As a regulator they would have to imagine a scenario where all those games could become exclusive.
Imagine if Xbox had 9 of the top 50 selling franchises - hardly seems ‘fair’ does it.
Nintendo and EA seems to have the most with 6 in the top 50 (FIFA/FC, Sims, Need for Speed, Madden, Battlefield and Bejeweled).
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I feel the ABK deal done more harm than good for me as an Xbox fan (please that is just my personal view)
I like to see Asobo become part of the Xbox empire though maybe the French value their independence too much for that to happen Apart from Asobo only Crystal Dynamics interested me in being part of the Xbox Group
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Don’t see why they’d even want Take Two - Zynga is dwarfed by King, and GTA is a risk to Microsoft’s reputation if it’s too edgy or too much of a financial risk if it’s not edgy enough and alienates whoever the hell still plays it so doesn’t sell well.
NBA and WWE are licenced IPs so not helpful value-wise (as when the contract comes up for renewal it could be lost to another firm), and Red Dead is popular but doesn’t seem a priority for them at the moment.
Also at a rate of one GTA every decade or so, other than squeezing the Online part for as much cash as possible (like they have with GTA+) it doesn’t really have the kind of return on investment that Microsoft’s shareholders will want - they seem to have lost money almost every quarter recently.
Yes that would change temporarily when GTA6 released, but a takeover wouldn’t be done by then (and let’s face it, it’s never getting approved by the EU or CMA) and then you’re on the hook for loads of money to build GTA7 for the next decade while still making losses…
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It definitely put more corporate scrutiny on Xbox that’s for sure. I think the strategy wouldn’t have changed that much but it’s definitely sped it up which is dividing a lot of gamers.
Similar to you I would have preferred studios like:
- Crystal Dynamics
- Eidos Montréal
- Asobo
- IOI
- Remedy
- Rocksteady
I think they make the types of games which Xbox are missing from their first party portfolio.
That said none of them make anything close to the money that ABK’s individual studios generate.
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One thing I am surprised about is how little King has expanded.
If you look at Zynga they have made so many small acquisitions in such a short timeframe in order to grow as big as they are.
I’m surprised King hasn’t been buying up these smaller mobile studios too.
Talking of mobile acquisitions I’m surprised Apple isn’t doing it, one of the ‘school dad’s’ at my daughter’s school now works for Apple doing some form of app support but I believe their company (Pre-Apple) used to originally create their own stuff.
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Good call on Remedy they also would be a perfect fit and have done so well on Xbox in the past
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I think Spencer specifically mentioned Asia so that is where I think they would focus on. South Korea and China have been booming and oozing of talents. Sega would have been my first pick but I think they’re doing fine on their own, my other would be Blueside the developer of the KUF series.
What if it was XBOX announcing the acquisition of Kadokawa? Something similar happened with Bethesda which was originally supposed to be acquired by Sony.
I know what you’re going to say what use Kadokawa could be to Microsoft because they don’t do animations or manga
but for a few years now we’ve seen that Microsoft is looking to expand their IPs for example Minecraft has a movie and 2 theme parks under construction.
maybe Microsoft could expand their IPs with Manga or animations Overwatch could work very well.
Also Phil Spencer has clearly said they are going to focus on Asia. I don’t think Sony are the only ones negotiating with Kadokawa right now it’s a race to see who will give the most money
Eidos and Crystal, thanks!
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Unfortunately if they’ve accepted the letter of intent, then they’re opening up the books etc to Sony in order to do due diligence as a final step before sale.
Multiple suitors can send a letter, but the target can only accept one - so if they have, then no Microsoft can’t be buying them.
We haven’t heard they have yet, but given they’d have had to announce if they’d had any rival letters we can surmise Sony are the only ones in play at the moment.
It’s also particularly unlikely at the moment - I suspect any Xbox acquisitions in Asia for a while will need to be outside Japan or with a company they’ve a long-standing relationship with (Sega for example, although I think incredibly unlikely) as the bad taste Tango closure combined with Sony’s influence on their government likely make a takeover of a Japanese company they aren’t close with difficult, as noted by senators in the US about the playing field not being equal…
They only revealed Sony because they are the only ones to leak and there was a big hype apparently a Korean company is also trying to buy Kadokawa
suspect that Tencent which owns shares is also present.
If a letter is received they have to notify shareholders, hence the publicity and likely why it leaked so late - negotiations will have been happening for a while I suspect but the letter would be needed to see the books, and at that point more people start to know, and that’s why they often leak the day before the letter is announced.
Others may be sniffing around but they’d have to be very fast at this point, or if they’re serious we’d hear about competing letters of intent on Monday when the markets open again I’d imagine.
It’s also likely that if they were worried about a Korean company fully taking them over, they’d also be worried about Tencent as they’re Chinese.
While anything’s possible, the longer we go without hearing of rival interest or letters of intent, or if they accept Sony’s, the more likely it is that Sony are the only real offer available that’s palatable.
There’s still no guarantee they’ll get taken over at all - the asking price the shareholders want might be too high or they’d prefer all cash (which I don’t think Sony can do unless they take on more debt, as it’s just under 25% of their cash in hand), or Sony might find cause for concern once they get into the books.
But if it does, at the moment it’s very likely going to be Sony, unfortunately
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