Value of Square Enix acquisition:
Adds various huge IP to different genres where there are gaps
JRPG: Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, Nier/Drakengard, Mana, Saga, Chrono Trigger, Bravely, Octopath, Star Ocean
Action: Tomb Raider, Hitman, Deus-Ex, Just Cause
Other: Legacy of Kain, Life is Strange, Gex, Space Invaders
Backlog: Add a ton of games that are not currently on the platform
Gamepass: Adds 100’s of games.
Outcome: Xbox becomes the industry leader in Action and JRPG games, adds a huge smattering of games that are not currently on the platform and instantly gains a massive foothold in asian markets. Gamepass sees absolutely massive growth in terms of content and they take away Playstations largest partner.
Value of Capcom:
Adds a bit more diversified, but significantly fewer IP in target areas
JRPG: Monster Hunter, Dragon’s Dogma, Breath of Fire
Fighting: Street Fighter
Action: Resident Evil, Devil May Cry, Dead Rising, Lost Plant, Dino Crisis
Other: Pheonix Wright, Mega Man, Viewtiful Joe
Backlog: Add only a few games that are not on the platform
Gamepass: Adds less than 100 games.
Outcome: Xbox would become a leader in action games, gain a premier fighting game and studio and secure two strong JRPGs for the future. Gamepasses future value offering grows with more Day 1 releases, but does not add much that hasn’t already been on the service.
That’s a really good analysis, albeit Capcom is closer to my heart and their games have immense value to me I can understand the strategic potential Square poses.
One person doesn’t make a game great. Rockstar has plenty of talent without him and they are huge. I’m not saying his next game won’t be great but it wont have a team that is colossal and took yrs if not decades to build. I don’t doubt the next GTA will be huge and great.
I think you can put Take Two on top, No IP in the world is more powerful than GTA not even Mario / Zelda / Metroid bundled together (I say that hating GTA) But if Microsoft wants to inflate its Gamepass number insanely a GTA VI Day One will have more impact than any other game.
Nintendo would be incredibly larger than Take Two. Even with Take Two owning GTA.
If you look at Nintendo games, they are currently locked to one ecosystem and have had like 8 releases in the past 2 years that have sold 20 plus million units.
Not only that the IP that come with Nintendo appeal to many people that Xbox does not currently have content for. Nintendo offers the leading E rated content, but also elite action games, tons of JRPGs, access to put gamepass on over 100 million devices, a MASSIVE back catalog, the most iconic characters in GAMING, games that translate amazingly to mobile experiences like Xcloud.
So far I have been able to guess 3 Studios before their takeover
Obsidian in 2017: because I knew they were having difficulty (Obsidian has always been my favorite Studio (with Rare) since they were Black Isle) So I hypothesized on a forum that no longer exists except Microsoft could buy them back (that was before Klobrille talked about it)
I was also able to guess Double Fine in 2018 At TGA the Psychonauts 2 Trailer went right between Aaron Greenberg and Phil Spencer and I noticed Phil Spencer had a “Hey we have or we are going to acquire Double Fine” mode smile but you don’t know)
I then posted this on Twitter later and Double Fine liked it.
I also thought that Microsoft might buy out Arkane (I never imagined at the time that the entire Zenimax group could be bought; I just didn’t think XBOX had that much ambition for the game) But I knew Arkane was in trouble because I live next door to Arkane Lyon and I know developers there who were desperate that the reviews were great but the games weren’t selling so I thought Microsoft could buy them back.
I also thought of Playtonic Games when Phil Spencer said he wanted E-rated content with the 2 Yooka Laylees in Gamepass and their closeness to Rare I thought Playtonic Games could keep that old 90’s soul Raraware to let Rare stand. focus on new things. but it seems that Playtonic Games wants to remain independent.
But now when I read what Satya Nadella and Phil Spencer want to reach 3 Billion players, that they have great ambitions, that they cite games like Minecraft, Roblox, Fortnite, Rocket League for casual and social content. I tell myself that their goal is to grow the Gamepass massively and quickly and for that GTA is the best IP to acquire of course Red Dead Redemption is also massive, IP like Bioshock is cult, xCom and Civilization works well on PC, NBA is still huge … but the big deal is GTA.
Nintendo sell games because they sell consoles and mainly the Nintendo Switch is a console in addition to a PC or an XBOX / Playstation but I know no one who only owns a Nintendo Switch and skips practically all third parties. If Take Two were a manufacturer and kept GTA and RDR exclusive to their console, they would simply sell more consoles than anyone.
With their latest stance of more casual games, I wonder if there was some truth to the Take Two acquisition. GTA is of course one of the biggest IP’s worldwide.
Excluding Take Two there’s only a few which stand out:
Epic Games would give them Fortnite, Rocket League and the best game engine around.
Activision Blizzard would give them Call of Duty and WoW.
EA would give them FIFA, NHL, NFL & Battlefield.
If they don’t then Tencent, Nexon and NetEase will acquire them all eventually. Tencent already own top 4 of the most played games.
Activision is worth over 70 billion and does not have a good reputation at the moment
EA is worth 35 billion but FIFA does not belong to them
Epic is worth around 30 Billion
To all of this you should add a certain premium which makes them worth even more
Take Two is worth around 20-30 Billion and GTA is more powerful than any Activision / EA or Epic IP. And above all I mean a Rockstar game definitely offers a 95+ Metacritic when that will probably never happen for a Call of Dutty / Fifa / Fortnite / Battlefield …
I think the most played game is Minecraft if we stick to console / PC
If I were Microsoft I wouldn’t think about buying Take Two, I’ll just get GTA exclusivity. As we said that’s already like 80% of the benefit for a fraction of the price. That’s just what I see though.
it would make no sense to maintain a GTA exclusivity you would end up paying more than the acquisition of Take Two when GTA VI is released it will probably explode all sales records and profitability at that time Take Two will get even bigger
I can also totally see GTA VI having an F2P model with Microtransaction I think the game will be really massive online.
If Rockstar deliver games with this finish it is because they take years of development with a lot of outsourcing of thousands of people and GTA VI will probably have 10 years of development these games are massive and no one in the industry. is capable. Microsoft have the portfolio to produce games at 1 Billion dollars.
