Xbox Acquisition |OT3| 100% Organic Growth

[Shadowgasm]

On second thought , let’s not go to Xbox Acquisition |OT3|, ‘Tis a silly place.

[Reuben]

I doubt Sega is ever going to happen but it would be funny given Segas history. Going from an American company, to a Japanese operated company but owned by an American one, to a Japanese owned company that screwed over it’s American branch pretty hard, back to an American owned company operating largely out of Japan and Europe.

[Butters (Sven)]

@Fabtacular

…st to add NBA2k to Game Pass on day 1 would be like $150m annually. Same for Bioshock. And for the once-every-five-years Rockstar game, who knows? Would $1B do it? At any rate, you could do five years of 2k, Bioshock, an the next GTA game for under $2B. Now, they wouldn’t be exclusive and you wouldn’t get the revenue from Steam sales, etc. But to me, you’re getting 80% of the benefit at 8% of the cost. (You want the back catalogues of GTA/RDR/Bioshock/Xcom too? You can do those deals as well, for a relatively nominal price… well, “nominal” in terms of the numbers we’re talking.) Doesn’t that seem like a much better deal? I think so. And look, admittedly those numbers are all made up. But I’m guessing whatever reasonable numbers you put in their place will arrive at a similar answer.

The Point stands that Microsoft could have done that deals with Bethesda as well.

I gave some good explanation with my thoughts behind this and just wrote some posts above that I personally don’t wish for that.

But whatever keep going and don’t forget to send Phil a DM with the valuable info “lol dealz are cheap”

[Fabtacular]

@Bastian

If Microsoft acquired Take Two it would have those games permanently on the service, it would get a lot of legacy games and over the years it would recoup the investment. In the short term xcloud would get a great boost, all those people who do not have money for a console and a pc, who have had to settle for watching youtubers play, could subscribe to the service and without worrying that the game will come out of game pass.

Would it? Like I said, Take Two’s most profitable years in the past five years were less than $400m profit / year.

If they paid $25B for Take Two, it would take them 62.5 years to recoup that investment based on profits alone. (And remember, the majority of those profits came from Playstation, and you wouldn’t get Playstation platform profits anymore.)

Look, I also understand that one of the big draws of buying a Take Two is making GTA / Red Dead console exclusive to Xbox. But again, $25B is SO MUCH MONEY. I’m just not convinced that even the highest-profile games can deliver value on that scale when they are only released once every five years.

That said, a lot of people think I’m crazy when I say they should go to Take Two today and say “we’ll give you $1B today for five years of Game Pass rights to GTA VI (when it comes out) plus comarketing and the right to announce the game at our E3 event.”

It’s not that I’m against the over-spend. I just think you have to really pick and choose your spots, and that Take Two as a whole isn’t the right spot.

[beastmode10]

@Paxton

…d on Goldeneye (Free Radical), most Rare fans consider that SFA was the start of their downfall and during the Xbox and first half of the 360 years they did what they usually did to lower reception compared to the originals, the criticism was already spread at that point.

There are studio lifecycles and there is churn. Is Naughty Dog the same studio when Sony purchased them. No - they have had a complete refresh of people there, and they don’t look like their former 90s self at all.

But honestly - what you are saying is verbatim from most nintendo/playstation podcasts. I won’t be surprised if you raise Scalebound next.

[Knottian (Daniel)]

@Paxton

…d on Goldeneye (Free Radical), most Rare fans consider that SFA was the start of their downfall and during the Xbox and first half of the 360 years they did what they usually did to lower reception compared to the originals, the criticism was already spread at that point. And yes, 343i reception of Halo, because fans and critics had a negative reception overall, you go from a average of 9.5 to 8.8 to low 8s, I didn’t say about the financial results because they solely carry on the franchise legacy, but Halo 5 is considered the “enough is enough” moment, the saga was already losing it’s number 1 online play spot to call of duty, but now it barely keeps on top 50 most played on Xbox Live, they lost to Call of Duty, Battlefield, Rust, Fallout, and Ark, even Halo MCC has more players on than H5.

You seem to be unable to separate success from critical reception (and perceived generalizations by a diverse community of players); despite what some people may think, sales and engagement are the only metric that matters for a title’s success (see Sea of Thieves). Star Fox wasn’t considered anyone’s “downfall” and any criticisms were largely levied at Nintendo’s overhanded forcing of ‘Star Fox’ on a project that had nothing to do with the franchise to begin with. I remember it vividly, just like I remember how much of a coup it was considered for Microsoft to acquire Rare.

As for disingenuously comparing Halo 4 and 5 to titles that didn’t have anywhere near the competition that the aforementioned titles did… well okay bud.

[ParkerPetrov]

@Fabtacular

… profits came from Playstation, and you wouldn’t get Playstation platform profits anymore.) Look, I also understand that one of the big draws of buying a Take Two is making GTA / Red Dead console exclusive to Xbox. But again, $25B is SO MUCH MONEY. I’m just not convinced that even the highest-profile games can deliver value on that scale when they are only released once every five years. That said, a lot of people think I’m crazy when I say they should go to Take Two today and say “we’ll give you $1B today for five years of Game Pass rights to GTA VI (when it comes out) plus comarketing and the right to announce the game at our E3 event.” It’s not that I’m against the over-spend. I just think you have to really pick and choose your spots, and that Take Two as a whole isn’t the right spot.

If we are going down this speculative path. A lot of the profits would stay the same though as titles like nba2k, the golf game, etc. would stay multi-platform. The costs would be different under Microsoft though as part of the fee would be how many added subscribers would see over 5 years, 10 years, 15 years with take two titles launching day one into the game pass.

Then how many projected sales would we have just from traditional game sales. then a combination of those would be worth/value. I don’t have the answer to any of those questions but its definitely more complicated than just well they made 400 million in their most profitable year lets extrapolate that out.

[Daniel]

@Paxton

Now can Microsoft buy Sega? Honestly I think the only roadblock is Sammy part of the enterprise, all their stuff is not what Microsoft does (Arcades, pachinkos, resorts and etc), it also creates another difficulty to acquire on regulation grounds, but who knows?

Didn’t they sell a large part of the pachinkos/arcade business which added more fuel to the fire of MS or something buying them as it looked like they were trimming fat.

[Knottian (Daniel)]

@Daniel

Didn’t they sell a large part of the pachinkos/arcade business which added more fuel to the fire of MS or something buying them as it looked like they were trimming fat.

They did at the beginning of this year. To be precise, they spun off the division, which is a move that some companies have done in the past for preparing for acquisitions/mergers.

[profjjj]

@javycane

Are people aware that most kids nowadays just play Fortnite, GTA online, Warzone and Apex? I get the family friendly thing aspect is a thing but I feel people got the notion that kids are only playing E rated stuff when I think reality kinda different.

Not saying I wouldn’t take Fuzion Frenzy reboot or other family stuff

It’s certainly a different gaming landscape than it was 20 years ago. But, kids come in all different ages. What parents allow their five year olds to play is very different from a twelve year old or teen.

[thiagosilva (thiagoツ)]

Timur222

[Callangoso]

@Knottian

They did at the beginning of this year. To be precise, they spun off the division, which is a move that some companies have done in the past for preparing for acquisitions/mergers.

Sega would be an amazing acquisition, it would have both the Japanese(Yakuza/Persona) content and E rated content(Sonic) that Phil wants plus a lot of strategy games.

[QuietGamer90 (Tawsif (Rafee))]

I know MS is talking to whoever they can, but I think it would be good if they acquired an ‘indie’ publisher next (preferably a moderate sized one).

I say that because in between those AAA releases, you will need those small but quality games to sustain the GP subscription numbers. Also, the general level of indie games nowadays has come a long way and are not to be scoffed at, imo.

Also, MS finalized the Bethesda acquisition just about 4 months ago. I could be completely wrong here, but I would guess that MS would want to logistically get everything settled wrt to Bethesda as it was a ‘once in a lifetime’ type of acquisition. At the same time, maybe MS has those challenges figured out and are able to pursue another big acquisition.

Just my few cents for now.

[BRiT]

@QuietGamer90

I know MS is talking to whoever they can, but I think it would be good if they acquired an ‘indie’ publisher next (preferably a moderate sized one).

I said it before, but Devolver Digital would be great addition, and should even grow them to be able to triple their scale.

[pg2g]

@BRiT

I said it before, but Devolver Digital would be great addition, and should even grow them to be able to triple their scale.

Isn’t Devolver basically the standalone version of ID@Xbox? What would you get from buying them? Their relationships?

[Failwood]

@QuietGamer90

…I know MS is talking to whoever they can, but I think it would be good if they acquired an ‘indie’ publisher next (preferably a moderate sized one). I say that because in between those AAA releases, you will need those small but quality games to sustain the GP subscription numbers. Also, the general level of indie games nowadays has come a long way and are not to be scoffed at, imo. Also, MS finalized the Bethesda acquisition just about 4 months ago. I could be completely wrong here, but I would guess that MS would want to logistically get everything settled wrt to Bethesda as it was a ‘once in a lifetime’ type of acquisition. At the same time, maybe MS has those challenges figured out and are able to pursue another big acquisition. Just my few cents for now.

I personally don’t see the point of purchasing an indie publisher, since Microsoft has no problem getting loved and anticipated indie games on the service as is. Many of them day one even. Third party AAA games are more sparse and the amount of third party day one AAA releases we’ve got day one can be counted on one hand, therefore I think it’s way more important to secure AAA or AA developers.

[BRiT]

@pg2g

Isn’t Devolver basically the standalone version of ID@Xbox? What would you get from buying them? Their relationships?

Yes, pretty much. Though I say it out of not knowing enough about the business side, I’m just a fan of their titles and broadly different style.

I’m not sure what they do differently to get the more nontraditional games, but that’s their draw for my proposition. Is it because ID@Xbox passed up the games then Devolver picked them up, or is it a cultural and relationship where the games went to Devolver first?

[QuietGamer90 (Tawsif (Rafee))]

@Failwood

I personally don’t see the point of purchasing an indie publisher, since Microsoft has no problem getting loved and anticipated indie games on the service as is. Many of them day one even. Third party AAA games are more sparse and the amount of day one AAA releases we’ve got can be counted on one hand, therefore I think it’s way more important to secure AAA or AA developers.

When I say indie, there is a broad spectrum. For example, the devs behind Stalker 2 were part of the ID@Xbox showcase in March. They can easily be considered as AA developers.

This is why I said that the indie games coming out today have definitely grown and in some cases, match the quality of a typical ‘AAA’ game.

[maxalpha100mega (Maximo L. N. Contreras)]

Well lets hope MS gets Netherealm. They really need a fighting games studio for KI

[GreatTiger]

Take-Two would be a hell of a get you could make GTA exclusive the sports games would have to go everywhere but they’d be on Gamepass day1 the Microtransactions alone from GTA & NBA 2K, WWE and the new football game would pay for the purchase itself over 20 years. If people feel they got the games for “free” then they’ll spend more on their My Players or GTA characters. I’ve done this myself with MLB The Show 21 since i got the game for free I spent 60 dollars in microtransactions to building up my player.