Video Game Market Analysis Thread

No its not because the One failed miserably. Also its disingenuous to say its doing better than the One…its actually doing better than OG Xbox which is far more of an achievement when it comes to how Xbox is performing

The Xbox 360 sold over a million in Japan and was an incredible success from OG Xbox. Then you go from that to a console that barely sold 150k lifetime probably less

If the Series X was doing better in terms of “it will outsell the Xbox one” but won’t go near the OG Xbox then that wouldn’t still be enough to say its being successful

All I’m pointing out is we shouldn’t even mention the Xbox one. Even by MS’s low standards in Japan it did horribly

I don’t care about the retailers…more so the developers who might think twice before putting out exclusives to PS this gen.

Of course PS is supply restricted. But Publishers need to see the global sales and realise…actually. We have to support this system. And to be fair…they are. Xbox Series has way more JPN support in its first 18 months than Xbox one did probably in its lifetime.

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We’ll I say that because retailers are the ones that buy the games from the publishers. So technically game developers/publishers are looking to sell to retailers first who of course are answering demand from consumers. There can be demand for a product but if retailer don’t want to stock it then the games won’t be made. So if retailers feel Xbox games are selling they will order more and publishers will meet that demand.

Digital changes this a bit, but retail support was part of the Xbox’s problem.

Here are launch aligned Famitsu numbers for Japan, going back 10 weeks and forward 5 weeks just to give you a sense. Series is behind cumulatively because of a slow start, and its biggest weeks aren’t close to the 360 which did as high as 25-30k when big Japanese games launched. But Series is doing well, no doubt.

Week OG Xbox Xbox 360 Series X Series S Xbox Series Combined
70 750 2963 374 1588 1962
71 4428 2900 2936 618 3554
72 1800 2307 246 144 390
73 1000 3162 2881 1528 4409
74 1274 3205 151 3917 4068
75 880 2105 3027 2715 5742
76 840 2026 566 5459 6025
77 581 2044 1754 5305 7059
78 881 2219 1754 5305 7059
79 490 2533 105 6120 6225
80 650 7583
81 530 3369
82 573 3154
83 310 2370
84 650 2942

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Thanks for taking the time to put all that together, and for the context commentary. :+1:

The angle of that Series graph line has been steeper than the others for a few weeks now, it’ll be interesting to see for how long that’ll keep up. And if it can ever reach the steepness of that 8-week 360 climb starting at week 51. I feel like that must’ve coincided with some major games being released.

But Retail won’t be part of Xbox’s problem going forward as more people aren’t going physical.

I also dont like these Famitsu sales from a software perspective because it doesn’t tell the whole picture. We need to merge Digital and Physical sales data like NPD does(bar Nintendo for some stupid reason)

Sure no problem!

Week 51 was the first week of December 2006, which coincides with the release of Blue Dragon in Japan. That led to over 35,000 Xbox 360s being sold in one week. Best non-launch week ever for any Xbox console.

IMO, that’s going to be the difference between good and great for Series in Japan. It can clearly sell well based on price, services, and the current mix of content, and it will very likely pass the OG Xbox lifetime somewhere in 2023/2024. But it will take some certified Japan-focused hits for it to reach or surpass the 360.

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WE also have to put things in context

Home console gaming as a whole is in massive decline in Japan. We aren’t going to get dedicated consoles selling as much as Ps4 ever again.

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I just want to add that even PS4 sales in Japan were mediocre. There were articles about it even.

The market was kinda declining there until Switch saved it.

I wonder if there’s stats out there for Japanese usage of the Switch in handheld vs docked mode. It would be interesting to factor in whether or not Switch counts as a “home console”.

IT doesn’t. Switch isn’t selling anywhere near as much if it was home console only. Look at the Wii U. Also wouldn’t sell as much in the west either.

I don’t count Switch as a home console. Its a handheld that can be docked. Without the handheld aspect it probably sells as much as the Xbox One at best.

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Switch did not save the market. Switch basically belongs to a handheld market, rather than home console market. If there were statistics, I would not be surprised that the vast majority plays in handheld mode.

Switch essentially close to Nintendo DS market rather than home console market.

The PS5 is literally outselling the PS4 though. Trends are only trends until someone makes an appealing product and reverses it.

Anyway, Xbox has a lot of room to grow in Japan even if the overall home console market in Japan is smaller than in the PS2 days.

True to a point, but Japan is largely physical and “winning” in sales is still largely physical based. Like you say, these Famitsu reports don’t tell the whole picture and they don’t even track Amazon from what I understand. They are largely retail and physical sales tracking so you’ll want to look good there so you’ll look good to Japanese publishers.

It’s really cool to see the sales charts and comparisons between generations at various points, but I can’t help feeling like this is going to become irrelevant at a certain point (not yet).

I feel like Japan is probably up there with Korea as one of the places where game streaming may really catch on (partly because mobile internet connections are so much better than here in US and Korea has better wired as well), and if the often mentioned “puck” device and/or streaming apps for tvs come out, there will still be consoles sold, but there’s a big opportunity for people to try the service out for a month or two to play something that catches their eye without having to buy the console this way. Will really be interested to see how this catches on with people and if we see any change to sales eventually as a result. There’s a chance it could actually sell more consoles if people start playing on cloud and are happy with the Xbox service, it’s hard to say for sure.

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Weekly Famitsu report

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Xbox selling 7k for amother week. Would be way higher if more X were available.

I wish they could send em 100k, just to see how much would actually sell in a week there.

I mean ms still need the attractive games. Japan still more physical driven than the western markets

I want to push back on this sentiment because I see people express this opinion far too often. Microsoft Flight Sim, Forza Horizon 5, and Halo Infinite are good games regardless of country. Activision Blizzard will also add appeal to Xbox brand. Perfect Dark and Killer Instinct are former Nintendo games that Japanese gamers should remember as well. Bethesda is a big deal once their exclusives start coming out, especially Starfield and Elder Scrolls. Avowed might even go toe to toe with Final Fantasy if they both release at the same time.

If any market ignores Xbox this generation then so be it. But let’s not pretend Xbox doesn’t have a wide range of universally appealing games both now and in the future.

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Who said it didnt? Im saying they still need more JPN centric games if they want to sell more closely to 360. Thats just a fact. Off to a good start but the library will need to keep up and be consistent.

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