Video Game Market Analysis Thread

Sure but jrpgs are harder to come by period. At least there is some. Xbox one had fuck all.

Its getting more multiplats. Thats a start

Yeah just seemed like when Xbox went through that rebuilld they focused all efforts on the west for studio deals. And I am with you I don’t think see any of these deals come throuuh this early. I am hoping I am wrong and we see some amazing jrpg game But I’ll still even just take more gamepass japanese games

While it’d of course be fantastic whenever Xbox does manage to get some japanese exclusive games. Right now the series consoles main selling point is gamepass and this is the case in nearly every market.

They’ve made gamepass such a killer service that most people are immediately subscribing or buying the console to subscribe immediately. This goes for Japan, Europe and other parts of Asia where the XB1 absolutely cratered.

PS5 got that last little bit needed to cross over 20 Million units now.

In my opinion people always make this way too complicated. It’s not impossible to guess “ballpark” numbers.

The consoles are tied. We know this because both consoles sellout instantly.

If PS5 sold about 20 million then so did Xbox with perhaps 3 variables.

-variable 1 Xbox waited longer to begin manufacturing (rdna 2 / red ring style precautions)

-variable 2 Xbox created a next generation cloud with Series chips (I would personally argue that these chips should count in the sales totals because that would simplify things when trying to compare the PS5 and Series numbers. PS5 will never have a cloud because PlayStation will never be willing to sacrifice these guaranteed sales like Xbox was willing to do, so why not just include cloud servers in the sales totals?).

Variable 3 - Series S is beginning to become more available. (Some would argue that this is a knock on the Xbox Series S but I think these consoles are also guaranteed sales but they will just require a big AAA release to move consoles. Every time there is a new Elden Ring then the shelves will empty. It’s a more cyclical strategy but just as effective in the end as it pertains to considering number of consoles sold).

… what? No, the Series consoles have not sold 20M. They’re estimated to be around 14-15M rn.

That is absolute lowest bound estimates.

See my variable #2. Cloud chips count in my opinion.

Variables 1 and 3 cancel each other out. PS5 got an early head start but the recent influx in series S consoles makes up for that early manufacturing lead.

Having a 33% margin of error for an estimate seems excessive to put Series up at 20M units sold. Where are any financial analysts saying 15M is the absolute lowest bound?

I am in 17-18m camp. Series S is doing god’s work, I just can’t believe there is 5m difference with Series S being there.

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Just wait until Microsoft cut the price of Series S to $199, that’s the sweet spot for many people.

As I said in the other thread. Only the Microsoft Executives know the actual numbers. Anything said by anyone who isn’t one is going off of public PR-ish statements which can only be qualified as absolute lowest bounds. Everything is shaped by statements like “best selling xbox” which only gives the lowest point data. It does not give anything more like the actual numbers sold.

Additional complication for sales numbers is we have no idea the mix or ratio of Series S to Series X. Even if you attempt to parse revenue or income into sales it’s a vast range.

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Cut the price (though I don’t think they will slash 100$ at once) and introduce the design lab. I will buy a couple :joy:

I think there’s a possibility in Christmas they will be aggressive and cut the price, remember they want to increase gamepass subs and a bundle of a Series S + gamespass at $199 will move a lot of units. IMO!

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there are not millions of consoles in data centers.

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I think there is a sizeable chunk of them there for sure. I think there was a theory that the first year of sales Xbox mostly (or 50/50) at least sent units to Azure blades.

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From what I can recall from the Series X deep dives, they’re also able to be used for standard Azure DC Tasks and not restricted to only console tasks.

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if you mean 95/5 with 50/50 you could be right.

Nobody is kneecapping its own sales of a very high supply constraint product and installs millions of consoles instead in data centers.

And we know from Satya they had 10 million users for xCloud (but not concurrently ofc). You don’t even need millions of servers for this.

I’m not gonna predict how many they need, but it’s a latency dependent application so they need to be spread across the world and you can’t leverage hardware in low utilization areas (say due to time zone) to service higher utilization areas.

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