[rumor] It seems Gamepass reached 20 milions of users

[LifeForms]

@pg2g

I wish we had more visibility into the financials, juat for fun.

If we assume 20 million subscribers and they are all om GPU (so best case) their revenue would be 3.6 billion for the year.

For contrast, Sony’s Playstation business had a revenue of 18+ billion in 2019. That includes hardware (don’t know what percentage) , but it does make it pretty clear why Sony is not in a race to switch things up. It will take a lot of subs to get Xbox into that range.

A lot of that will have to be from there cut of 3rd party game, DLC and microtransactions sales. but the real comparison will be what sony and ms make from there exclusive game offerings

Eg so say sony sold 30 million games getting $35 per game thats a total of about $1 billion, Where as game pass makes $3.6 billion a year eith 20 mil subscribes. The gamepass model seems more profitable.

[MasterChief]

@MonkeyBoyFrancis

I’d up it closer to 35m. Halo and Starfield.

I think if Starfield comes out this year then yeah there’s a big chance it reaches 35 million but with Halo being a free to play game not many will probably subscribe to GamePass for it besides those who want to play the campaign.

@LifeForms

and its going to increase even more when there 23 devs are in full swing.

Assuming they reach 30-35 million this year and this is before their studios really start to fire on all cylinders I wonder how realistic it is to expect the numbers to be around 75-85 million by the end of the generation…

[pg2g]

@LifeForms

A lot of that will have to be from there cut of 3rd party game, DLC and microtransactions sales. but the real comparison will be what sony and ms make from there exclusive game offerings

Eg so say sony sold 30 million games getting $35 per game thats a total of about $1 billion, Where as game pass makes $3.6 billion a year eith 20 mil subscribes. The gamepass model seems more profitable.

Good point, a lot of that kind of stuff is just going to scale based on userbase.

[brunopcosta1 (Bruno Costa)]

@Mesiac

Interesting. I wonder if it’s about setting expectations they can be confident in keeping up with. They might have been concerned that announcing almost 20 million might have produced the expectation that they consistently can gain 8-9 million subscribers per quarter when they might have been concerned about reaching that every quarter, and 5 million over the previous quarter is still an impressive gain to shareholders etc.

In the same way they market Game Pass as “over 100 games” when they are nearing 300 games – without counting EA Play or Game Pass PC

[LifeForms]

@MasterChief

Assuming they reach 30-35 million this year and this is before their studios really start to fire on all cylinders I wonder how realistic it is to expect the numbers to be around 75-85 million by the end of the generation…

I could see that, possibly more if they find success in emerging markets.

[samarz]

@LifeForms

A lot of that will have to be from there cut of 3rd party game, DLC and microtransactions sales. but the real comparison will be what sony and ms make from there exclusive game offerings

Eg so say sony sold 30 million games getting $35 per game thats a total of about $1 billion, Where as game pass makes $3.6 billion a year eith 20 mil subscribes. The gamepass model seems more profitable.

Yep, and Sony will follow eventually. With alll the “HBO vs basic cable” and “premium content” bs it wouldn’t surprise me if they kept PS Now as is, then added a PS Now + with every game day and date and PS+ at $20+/month. Fully except some sort of PS Now PC or every game coming to Epic.

That being said, I agree with some of the predictions here, 30M+ Game Pass subs in 2021 should be pretty easy, I think some announcements will boost subs a lot. February/March if they announce most Bethesda games will be exclusive, a chunk of people will sub for Starfield imo (assuming it’s coming sooner than later). Halo of course, xCloud on iOS, xCloud on TVs, Ubisoft or other publisher deals, etc.

[LifeForms]

@samarz

Yep, and Sony will follow eventually. With alll the “HBO vs basic cable” and “premium content” bs it wouldn’t surprise me if they kept PS Now as is, then added a PS Now + with every game day and date and PS+ at $20+/month. Fully except some sort of PS Now PC or every game coming to Epic.

That being said, I agree with some of the predictions here, 30M+ Game Pass subs in 2021 should be pretty easy, I think some announcements will boost subs a lot. February/March if they announce most Bethesda games will be exclusive, a chunk of people will sub for Starfield imo (assuming it’s coming sooner than later). Halo of course, xCloud on iOS, xCloud on TVs, Ubisoft or other publisher deals, etc.

The only reason I can think that sony dont want to go all in on there subscription service that is they rely on the short term capital direct sales provides, but now I think about it does not make sense because if sony went all in and made PSnowUltimate which included there exclusives day one, previous exclusives and ps+ it would gain new customers and quick revenue as fast as gamepass, so god knows what sonys motives are.

[samarz]

@LifeForms

The only reason I can think that sony dont want to go all in on there subscription service that is they rely on the short term capital direct sales provides, but now I think about it does not make sense because if sony went all in and made PSnowUltimate which included there exclusives day one, previous exclusives and ps+ it would gain new customers and quick revenue as fast as gamepass, so god knows what sonys motives are.

Yeah, I think they’re just waiting so they don’t look like they’re just copying the Game Pass sub. Also as I said I’m convinced they would put the price just $5 over Game Pass Ultimate, with the words “premium” and “critically acclaimed” plastered everywhere.

[nrXic]

@Shpeshal_Nick

That’s my assumption.

Say 15 when it’s closer to 20 so that way if they have a drop off in subs once some trials run out or whatever they can still announce “growth” even if they dropped from 19 to 17 or something

Yeah I figured the promotional subs were not counted. The $1/3month deal, for example. But they would count retention. Anyways this is all a guess on my part and I think it’s more honest and as a result more useful info for investors.

It’ll be curious to see what numbers they announce at E3 (if they do, but I imagine they will) and if there will be a jump after E3.

[FairyEmpire]

I can see 30m this year with Halo, Forza and possibly Starfield.

[MasterChief]

@LifeForms

I could see that, possibly more if they find success in emerging markets.

I’m looking forward to see how popular it becomes, I already know some very very casuals gamers who are subscribed to it, it will definitely be a much more popular service than any other in gaming.

[hanspampel]

Well if they don’t increase Game Pass subs, Satya Nadella will earn less money. 5% of his performance bonus is tied to Game Pass growth targets

[cinste (Pete)]

@Shpeshal_Nick

They do this thing now where they low ball. Not sure why.

One simple explanation would be that they want the GP message to remain as a constant positive and the courser grained the reporting the better for that. If you always round down to the nearest 5 mill. far less chance that you will ever have to report a drop for the press to pick up and run with.

[Mort]

I think they will reach 35 mil by the end of this year. From 2022 onwards when XGS will have so many must-play games all the time it will explode.

[ElPutoXD]

@pg2g

I wish we had more visibility into the financials, juat for fun.

If we assume 20 million subscribers and they are all om GPU (so best case) their revenue would be 3.6 billion for the year.

For contrast, Sony’s Playstation business had a revenue of 18+ billion in 2019. That includes hardware (don’t know what percentage) , but it does make it pretty clear why Sony is not in a race to switch things up. It will take a lot of subs to get Xbox into that range.

The revenue of the Xbox division this year is going to be at around 12 billion. By 2023 or 2024 I think that figure could hit 18 billion. By the end of this gen the Xbox division should have surpassed 20 billion in revenue per year.

[Marano]

@ElPutoXD

The revenue of the Xbox division this year is going to be at around 12 billion. By 2023 or 2024 I think that figure could hit 18 billion. By the end of this gen the Xbox division should have surpassed 20 billion in revenue per year.

12 billion? With covid and new consoles it is more than that.

[MaulerX]

@Mort

I think they will reach 35 mil by the end of this year. From 2022 onwards when XGS will have so many must-play games all the time it will explode.

Sounds about right.

I was going to be conservative and say 30 million by the end of the year but might go higher.

[Thanathorn]

Is Minecraft not on PC gamepass? Seems like a weird omission.

[Ruthwik_Rao]

@Thanathorn

Is Minecraft not on PC gamepass? Seems like a weird omission.

Yeah pc gamepass is frustrating like that, just get used to it at this point lol